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Kelly
20th March 2008, 08:13
I don't know if any of you are on Jason Hommels e-mail list, but he sent this one out late last night. Curiously enough, if you were hoping to buy physical silver on this rather curious dip in price, it looks like you are going to have to look long and hard to find it. Bummer...


http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/crunch.html

Silver Shortage: 19 dealers reported "Sold Out"
(SOLD OUT!!)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, March 19, 2008
You know me, I don't send out two emails in one day, so this must be important. Since my email earlier tonight, where I reported that 5-6 major silver dealers (Amark, Tulving, 2 in Vancouver, my local dealer, NWT Mint) are "out of inventory", 13 more reports came in, saying that the dealers were out of silver inventory. Some of these names are big names in the business, Scotia bank, the Perth Mint in Australia, CNI Numismatics in LA, APMEX says they have some items, but are looking to buy.

If there are any coin dealers or bullion shops that have an inventory, in stock, of more than 100, 100 oz. bars, let me know, and I'll give you FREE Advertising within 24 hours in my next newsletter.

Robert Mish reports that he has 100 x 100 oz. bars still, but he had 250 bars last week.
Mish International
Menlo Park
650-324-9110

Now think: How can the silver price drop by nearly $2/oz., when all these reports come in saying that the dealers are sold out, or nearly out, of physical silver? This is the clearest evidence of paper short selling manipulation that I've ever seen since I started watching the silver market back in 1999, and I've seen a lot of evidence!

Unfortunately, the COT reports only report through Tuesday. This Wednesday's action will not be revealed in the COT's until next Friday.

The public switched and turned buyers after gold hit $1000/oz. The coin shops normally sell to the refineries, and this creates a large part of the ~250 million oz. of silver recycling each year that meets the deficit between ~650 million oz. mine supply, and ~1000 million oz. demanded by inventory.

But now, this flow of silver just reversed. And if the refineries are not getting silver from the coin shops, industry will get squeezed, hard, and so will the major short sellers on the COMEX.

This is crunch time. Panic time.

The unedited reports follow (Names removed for privacy.)

===============

Coin shop report from St. Louis, MO. I shop at Missouri Coin and have purchased bulk 10oz bars (20 at a time) on several occasions. I went shopping yesterday and they only had 9 10oz bars available and the owner commented that he cannot find more anywhere. He was out of 10oz bars when I left...

I ended up picking up a bag of quarters as well since they didn't have the bar stock I was looking for.

A crunch is on.

J in St. Louis
=============

From: Ainslie Bullion Coy [mailto:info@ainsliebullion.com.au]
Sent: Thursday, 20 March 2008 10:53 AM
To: 'Linda Wagner'
Subject: RE: price

Sorry, I can’t quote silver until the middle of next month.

The supplier won’t quote until then

Kind regards

Geoff


Ainslie Bullion Company
GPO Box 1870
Brisbane Qld 4001
Tel: +61 7 3221 0500
Fax: +61 7 3229 1895

=============

Jason,

My coin dealer is in Bakersfield CA. Mike's Coin and Stamp. My wife and I went in on monday and bought 4 100 oz. bars. Said he had a good supply of those. I also wanted some smaller bars and I wiped him out. Only 160 oz total. He says he can't keep them in stock very long before someone comes in and empties his supply. He's having a hard time getting replacements. He's the largest dealer in the area and very trustworthy. We also bought gold. At least some people seem to be taking serious what's going on.



H

=============

HI Jason:

CNI near the L.A. airport at www.golddealer.com is the dealer I have used....They were out of silver today also...

E

(CNI is a major dealer --Jason)

=============

Jason,

Just placed another order with Perth Mint, they are out of stock on everything, however there waiting period is no longer 6 months (Im guessing they received alot of complaints) its now 6-8 weeks.

Just got off the phone with them, they have no bullion in stock, its all on backorder, the official excuse is that it takes along time to make the bars and everyone wants them, could be viiewed as a good thing knowing demand is high, but I personaly dont like waiting 6-8 weeks for delivery.

I contacted several other dealers in Sydney, only 1 out of 5 has stock...... Everyone has back orders with PM which is the distributor.

Regards,
S

=============
APMEX reports, at apmex.com

Due to the OVERWHELMING demand for precious metals, our online ordering system has been unable to keep up with our customers’ needs. We have had to disable the APMEX ordering system to allow us ample time to upgrade our site to accommodate the increased demand. We apologize for this temporary problem.
. . .

P.S. We are actively looking for new bullion inventory to purchase. If you have items that total $2,500 or more and are interested in selling, please call our trading offices at the number listed above. We are paying strong numbers for ALL Precious Metals!

=============

I want to tell you that your site is very helpfull and,i believe what you are doing,nice job in telling people about GOD money.I am a very smol investor, and i have in my posesion until now around 2000 ounces of silver bars,10 ounces and 50 ounces bars.Tuesday the 18. at scotia bank they did not have enouf silver.I wanted to buy but the vault was empty,they had only coins.And today is 19...19..This evil people work with numbers.They have dates for everything.19 is an important number for the ocult.All the best.GOD bless you and your family.

=============

Hello,
This past Monday I wired funds to purchase eleven 1,000 oz bullion bars from my dealer who I have purchased & sold sizable silver orders several times before. He called Monday afternoon and stated that none of his suppliers had any 1,000 ounce bars available, but not to worry, the next day they would probably have eleven bars to fill my order.

Tuesday, he called again, stating still none had bullion except one person had some, but he would only sell them at a ten cent premium over the dealer stated price or $1,100 more. I am a long term holder so I bought them just to have the silver in my depository possession.

By the way, my dealer is a high quality company and individual and he also stated he was flat covered over all day with transactions with people like myself buying silver. I also wonder with this condition, why the silver went down, and can't help to think about Ted Butlers assertion.

Cheers
FH

=============

Ordered 100 oz. from them early Jan. due to deliver this Friday. Way too long. My dealer in Arlington Texas is almost out of silver. Probably only has about 1000 oz. left. I will be taking some of that off his hands tomorrow.
Love your reports!
Have a great day
B

=============

mEDFORD ORE WAS OUT HAD A LINE WANTING TO PURCHASE

=============

Mr. Hommel,

I live in a small town of 16,000 In S. Illinois. I stopped by my local coin shop to pick up some Silver Eagles, and the cases were empty, except for numismatic value coins. He stated he had sold over 600+ Eagles in the last week and was waiting to receive more. I thought that to be a good indicator for the future direction of Silver. I also want to tip my hat to James Rawles for pointing me in your direction. Your e-mails are part of my recommended reading to my friends.

Thank you, RG


"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." Benjamin Franklin

=============

Jason,
I called the most consistent coin dealer in Memphis Monday. I like junk silver.
I could not buy a bag at any price. I was offered 5 100 once bars, period.
He stated that he hates ordering bags as the cost leaves him with indigestion.
Usually he is buying junk on a regular basis. At this time there seems to be
NO SELLERS.
Your old homie now in the Ozarks,
goatman

=============

Locally the dealers I've done business with are always in chronic tight supply and several of them recently couldn't fill a tiny $1,000 deal, let alone what I wanted to buy. I have bought hundreds of times but never more than 7461 ounces at a time. Got it from Bill Haynes in Phoenix. I was buying 90% when it was at 3.24x face and know it's still badly undervalued. I almost felt bad when a lady came in with bags of Franklins and she heard me tell the dealer I wanted them, her heart sunk, but it wasn't me that made her sell the gem BU coins. That's how quick the turnaround is. When investors go on waiting lists for hard metal, I believe it will cause the mining shares to finally zoom. We have several stupid billionaires in Dallas-Fort Worth and I wish they'd try to take a big position---it would benefit me!

--CS

=============

Again, to get silver, make sure you go local, take cash, and get the actual bars, if they have any! At this point, it matters little which product, just get any silver that they have that is somewhat close to the spot price, rounds, bars, odd weight bars, anything.

http://find-your-local-coin-shop.com/

It was for the inevitable time like this that I diligently complied the names of people in the industry who have 100,000 oz. of silver. I have 5 names on my list, but one of those 5, CNI, is now reported to be out. I don't know about the other 4; I've heard no reports about them. See the list of large dealers at http://find-your-local-coin-shop.com/

Sincerely,

Jason Hommel
www.silverstockreport.com
www.miningpedia.com

Kelly
20th March 2008, 09:33
I've bought from APMEX before and just now recieved this e-mail from them.
Basically, it looks like if you aren't buying 5000 ounces at a time, you aren't getting any silver...

I think this is all very strange indeed!

---

Dear Kelly,

Due to the OVERWHELMING demand for precious metals, our online ordering system has been unable to keep up with our customers’ needs. We have had to disable the APMEX ordering system to allow us ample time to upgrade our site to accommodate the increased demand. We apologize for this temporary problem. In the mean time, we will be accepting telephone orders for the following items only as we have them available:

• 1 ounce Gold American Eagles
• 1 ounce Gold Canadian Maple Leafs
• 1 Ounce Gold Krugerrands
• 100 oz Silver Bars
• Misc Generic .999 Fine Silver
• 90% Coin Silver


During this time, we will have a minimum order of $5,000. We regret we have had to make this drastic change to our ordering process and rest assured, we are working expeditiously to correct the problem. As soon as we have our new site up and running, we will notify you via e-mail when you can again place orders online.

You may contact us during normal business hours Monday – Friday 7:30 am – 4:00 pm cst. (800) 375-9006

If you have existing orders with us, we have in-stock all items needed to fulfill your orders and are shipping them as scheduled. Once our new site is functional, we will be able to activate our complete inventory line again.



Respectfully,

Scott Thomas
President & CEO

www.APMEX.com



P.S. We are actively looking for new bullion inventory to purchase. If you have items that total $2,500 or more and are interested in selling, please call our trading offices at the number listed above. We are paying strong numbers for ALL Precious Metals!

SilverTrees
20th March 2008, 09:41
My dealer in MI has plenty of 10 oz bars...

silverbuggy
20th March 2008, 10:24
My dealer in MI has plenty of 10 oz bars...

mine, too including Maple Leafs.

Kelly
20th March 2008, 10:53
Well go grab them then! 10 oz bars are great! It seems to be the one ounce denominations and coins that everybody is out of.

ADUB
20th March 2008, 12:00
I just picked up 5-100 oz bars from APMEX

samsung82
20th March 2008, 12:29
my silver guy has a few 100oz bars. Is 50cents over spot a good price i am new to this.

ADUB
20th March 2008, 13:00
If he is offering only 50 cent over spot, then buy. Some places charge more than that!

rexallia
20th March 2008, 13:06
Does anyone have an idea or some speculation of when apmex is going to get back online? I had planned to buy 1 oz/10 oz bars today, but I arrived to work and checked my email to find that they've shut down their online ordering system! Should have done it last night! :(

paker
20th March 2008, 17:19
To bad everyone went crazy last night. Silver is down in the 16's now.

JesterJay
20th March 2008, 17:53
Out of profit range.
Wait til it is up in the 19's again.
Poof!
Silver magically reappears!
Duh,
JesterJay



To bad everyone went crazy last night. Silver is down in the 16's now.

waynetheking
20th March 2008, 18:19
ok ok, i had a order with nwtmint. she inform me that after 3 years with this co. she has never seen it "this crazy"..the supply is tight. the market is down. Don't panic guys. This is good. Buy on the dips. this is the dips. Buy!! it's gonna go up. we know that. buy now or wait a week or two!...but hang in there. my stash has waited 15 years, i'm not gonna panic!!..any replys??

Daveman
20th March 2008, 18:43
my silver guy has a few 100oz bars. Is 50cents over spot a good price i am new to this.


How much over spot do the big places (Apmex, Bulliondirect) charge over spot? I thought anything over 1% is too much? I think Amark only charges 0.5% commision on order over $25,000. Only 0.25% on orders over $50,000.

So wouldn't 50 cents over spot be like what, 4% to 5%? Isn't that alot?

silverbuggy
20th March 2008, 18:51
ok ok, i had a order with nwtmint. she inform me that after 3 years with this co. she has never seen it "this crazy"..the supply is tight. the market is down. Don't panic guys. This is good. Buy on the dips. this is the dips. Buy!! it's gonna go up. we know that. buy now or wait a week or two!...but hang in there. my stash has waited 15 years, i'm not gonna panic!!..any replys??

wow...you are a good pusher. respect.

Albin
20th March 2008, 20:56
How much over spot do the big places (Apmex, Bulliondirect) charge over spot? I thought anything over 1% is too much? I think Amark only charges 0.5% commision on order over $25,000. Only 0.25% on orders over $50,000.

So wouldn't 50 cents over spot be like what, 4% to 5%? Isn't that alot?

According to their website Amark charges $0.25 an ounce to ship the silver as well.

Daveman
21st March 2008, 03:19
According to their website Amark charges $0.25 an ounce to ship the silver as well.

I know, but I live REALLY close to those guys as well, so I can just go pick up.

Shipping costs aside, isn't a "fair" rate of commision something like 0.5%?? ANYTHING over 1% sounds like a ripoff to me, and that includes any "management" or "handling" fees as well.

Silver Shoes
21st March 2008, 14:48
I wonder if others understand the point JesterJay makes above: It may be that there is no shortage of silver, but that dealers don't want to sell the silver they bought at $19 or above based on the current price. Perhaps they are waiting for prices to move back up to sell that silver, and are eager to find sellers who will provide metal they can sell at a profit.

I hope he is wrong, but the days and weeks ahead should tell the tale.

silverbuggy
21st March 2008, 18:56
I wonder if others understand the point JesterJay makes above: It may be that there is no shortage of silver, but that dealers don't want to sell the silver they bought at $19 or above based on the current price. Perhaps they are waiting for prices to move back up to sell that silver, and are eager to find sellers who will provide metal they can sell at a profit.

I hope he is wrong, but the days and weeks ahead should tell the tale.

that would mean that not only the "papersilvermarket" is being manipulated but also the "physicalsilvermarket".

WHAT A WONDERFUL WORLD!!!

Silver Shoes
21st March 2008, 19:09
silverbuggy,

Let's see what happens in the next few weeks. If silver really is in short supply at any price, we will find out soon. If it is the case that there is plenty around, just not available at the current price, we will probably know that soon as well, assuming the price moves back up above $19.

Feel free to jump in here anytime, JesterJay.

JesterJay
21st March 2008, 19:52
Ask your dealer how much per ounce you would have to offer him for him to be able to fill your order that he has already declined at $17/oz.
I bought 16 oz of shiny yesterday. The dealer told me he had a few more oz in EMERGENCY HOLD.
Doesn't it seem odd that I am standing there with lot$ of ca$h in my hand to buy at $ub-17 per and he is saying in effect.
"Got no more for you, but I do still have a stash."
That is telling me he (and no doubt others) are HOLDING until the price goes back up to where the profit is.
It don't take Rocket Scientist to figure out*,
JesterJay
*read this with bad stereo-typical Russian accent.



silverbuggy,

Let's see what happens in the next few weeks. If silver really is in short supply at any price, we will find out soon. If it is the case that there is plenty around, just not available at the current price, we will probably know that soon as well, assuming the price moves back up above $19.

Feel free to jump in here anytime, JesterJay.

jimha
22nd March 2008, 17:54
Are they not selling gold at spot plus a small mark up. Why would they not be doing it for silver too?

silverbuggy
22nd March 2008, 17:59
Are they not selling gold at spot plus a small mark up. Why would they not be doing it for silver too?

in order to create panic buying among the lemmings...

jimha
22nd March 2008, 20:51
So all the sellers listed by Jason Homell and comments of others that Royal Bank and such out of stock are collusion. I don't buy it for a moment.

Barbaric Relic
22nd March 2008, 23:26
Silver has gone up and down all the time, you could always buy.

Whats so different about this time.

JesterJay
22nd March 2008, 23:42
Economics 101:
When silver goes up (or down) $0.35 in a day and the shops pay 60 cents under and charge 60 cents over (or something similar) they easily make a small profit.
BUT... when silver goes DOWN $3 in a day and a half...
POOF!
There goes Mister Margin of Profit right out the door.
I am not kidding you fine people. My dealer told me he had more silver. There was NONE in his case of bullion for sale. I KNOW what that means.
"It ain't for sale, kid."
Follow the money. When the big upsurge hits and we see $5 up and/or down in a single day and $20-40/week price swings all under $100 spot price it will be nearly impossible for dealers to keep up with the price. Open at $60, $75 by Noon, $48 closing price. What the hell are they going to do? Wait til it opens low and closes HIGH! It is a matter of survival.
Soon you will have to ask to buy bullion. There won't be any sitting out visibly "available". If there is profit in it they will "have plenty in stock". If the price is down and no profit to be had they will be "out of stock" temporarily.
How would you keep from losing your shirt?
JesterJay



Silver has gone up and down all the time, you could always buy.

Whats so different about this time.

Daveman
23rd March 2008, 05:17
Well said Jester.

jimha
23rd March 2008, 07:57
"Silver has gone up and down all the time, you could always buy.

Whats so different about this time."


Do some research. Years of undersupply and diminished government stockpiles.

silverbuggy
23rd March 2008, 08:01
this is just market volatility. nothing special or serious. Dont believe everything you are told. Especially not on the internet.

paker
23rd March 2008, 08:58
The dealer I go to has 2 floor to ceiling massive safes that open towards the customer. When opened you can't see inside, so if he says he's out, well.. One oz bars and rounds are in the show case with the coins, but I'll bet he has more of everything in the safes.

prahudka
23rd March 2008, 11:56
The dealer I go to has 2 floor to ceiling massive safes that open towards the customer. When opened you can't see inside, so if he says he's out, well.. One oz bars and rounds are in the show case with the coins, but I'll bet he has more of everything in the safes.

My guy is selling what little he has a premium. Even the rounds. Eagles at 425, which is what he can sell them at by mail order. This is unusually. The rounds are usually close to spot and the Eagles have really not been much more.

SO, there isn't as much around. No one is selling. The stuff that is around is not as good or as plentiful as it used to be.

Screw the spot market and COT. Bring some popcorn and pretend its all just a free version of Jurassic Park.

SilverTrees
23rd March 2008, 15:41
I won't even think about selling my silver for less than $100 per ounce....I guess my "premium" would be $80 give or take a few bucks. But then again,if given the opportunity to sell at $100 per ounce, I may not want to sell cheaper than $200 per ounce...

JesterJay
23rd March 2008, 18:22
Sounds good to me.
IF we think silver could be $100 in the near future, why would we RISK the possibility that could result if we tried to take a little bit of profit now or soon and NOT be able to buy back at a lower price in the near future?
I have a 5 ounce coin selling on ebay right now. It will be the last of the PRETTY silver I will sell for considerably MORE than spot. Since I believe spot should be back up at $20-something (like it is selling for on ebay) I won't be sending any silver to ebay just to bring spot.

$16 Silver is a joke. Should be $26.

I am convinced there IS a parrallel silver universe. Paper vs. Metal.
Paper is worth(less) $16-ish per troy oz.
Metal is worth $21 or so.
Don't believe me? Do a search on ebay for "10 bar silver". You will find silver in 10 oz bars or groups of 10 1 oz rounds or bars and other similar things. NOTHING fancy. But check the prices. EVERYTHING, almost without exception sells for $20 per ounce or MORE. Silver Eagle Rolls still bring in the $450+ area as well. Real value, not paper to wipe with.
Spot My Ass!
JesterJay



I won't even think about selling my silver for less than $100 per ounce....I guess my "premium" would be $80 give or take a few bucks. But then again,if given the opportunity to sell at $100 per ounce, I may not want to sell cheaper than $200 per ounce...

Kelly
24th March 2008, 09:05
JesterJay, I think you are right. I think the days are rapidly coming to an end where the market value or spot price of physical silver is determined by the Future's market. That market is simply too manipulated to be reliable, and these days, it's begining to look like everybody and their uncle is FINALLY becoming aware of the fact. One of these days the silver shorts are going to wake up and find out that they can play their damn game all they want to, and the public is simply going to say "So What? You jerks can go take a flying leap!" The market in silver should be determined by what people are willing to pay for physical silver, not by a cartell of manipulative thieves and thugs who play a paper game.

frankl4
26th March 2008, 01:13
I was wondering about monex . Are they a good company to buy and sell from?