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TripleD
9th March 2009, 12:01
Glenn Beck just spent a bit of time on this.

The premise is that soon we will see a climb in the DOW somewhere between 2-5000 points. People with big money will then sell and feel as if they have recouped their losses and cause the markets to collapse.

The sheeple will feel as if they have dodged a bullet as the markets rise, they feel good about Obama's plans and when the markets collapse, their "wealth" is destroyed.

How do any of you feel about this? Any of you technical people see anything like this coming? Since my money will be in PM's...I guess I'll just watch.

bigdawgfoxx
9th March 2009, 12:11
Well if thats the case, great. We can trade and get rich up to the 2000-5000 point increase, sell before it collapses, and buy PMs, which would probably go DOWN if the DOW goes up. That would be the optimal situation at least.

I haven't heard Glenn talk about the markets actually going up that much on his show on Fox, but I don't get a chance to listen to his radio show and I know he even cuts to the chase more on there.

He's a smart guy. My mom got to meet him (I was a few hours away in college so i didn't get a chance to) and said hes the same in person as he is on TV. He's so real and honest and you can tell he truly cares about people. He doesn't go by party lines, he calls out both parties and looks for answers.

If you don't want Glenn Beck on Fox News at 5pm ET DO. You will soon agree that it is the best news show on TV, as the ratings already do (for his time slot he has higher ratings than all other stations combined)

TripleD
9th March 2009, 12:14
Well if thats the case, great. We can trade and get rich up to the 2000-5000 point increase, sell before it collapses, and buy PMs, which would probably go DOWN if the DOW goes up. That would be the optimal situation at least.



Agreed, PM's go down temporarily as confidence rises...till the collapse.

I'm not an expert in this stuff...hope a few other chime in.

silver_surfer
9th March 2009, 12:32
that would be awesome...I would love to see poeple feel really good and get there money back...even better to see them all lose it again!!!! That would be awesome!!! If i see it goin up decent ill buy some and sale and laugh at everyone that loses all there money again...Ill become like the big boys and get rich and act like them...

cfole
9th March 2009, 12:47
I like Glenn Beck but I have to question this. A 2-5K rally???? First off, a great deal of wealth has been destroyed. Those that are in the mkts. now are largely the bagholders of near worthless 401K's, NOT "big money". To believe big money will come into this mkt means you believe big money is willing to bet against big money. They are the only ones who have the resources to"play" the mkts at this point. I believe the mentality has shifted to keep money close and ride this out. Investors in hedge funds no longer favor the gamble mentality and therefore, the managers of those funds are under strict orders.

No one truly believes this is the bottom and unlike other bear mkt. rallies in the past, this is diff. There is more concern over the enormity of debt that is out there. aside from that, the corruption in reporting is so widespread, no one dare bet on a co. Who do you buy? Do they have exposure to derivatives? Are they being naked shorted out of existence by writers of CDS'? If you can't answer all of those questions, you have a hard time thinking like a fund manager and those guys are as nervous as whores in church at this point. 700 applications for a janitor job will do that to you.

TripleD
9th March 2009, 12:53
To believe big money will come into this mkt means you believe big money is willing to bet against big money. They are the only ones who have the resources to"play" the mkts at this point.

I think the concept is they will not "come into the market", but once their current holdings reach a certain level, they will sell.

Many big money people have large holdings in say...GE....which is way down. Once it rises in the false bear market...I don't even know if that's a term...they will then recoup their losses and move to other investments or the sidelines.

cfole
9th March 2009, 13:24
I think the concept is they will not "come into the market", but once their current holdings reach a certain level, they will sell.

Many big money people have large holdings in say...GE....which is way down. Once it rises in the false bear market...I don't even know if that's a term...they will then recoup their losses and move to other investments or the sidelines.

Again, I see no indication that there is still a lot of big money in this mkt. 8K points worth of money has left the mkt. Who was that? Avg. investors? I believe the majority of those left are the working class (401k holders) that face penalties and lack the sophistications of where to put their money should they pull out.

A major pop needs to start somewhere (REAL money saying GO) and I see no indication that they are willing to do that.

cybermorpheus
9th March 2009, 15:59
Also Faber said the same:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeDRhNolpJIg&refer=home

Will be a nice time for buy gold and Silver (down)... :rolleyes:

Waiting for!

skijake
9th March 2009, 16:16
Again, I see no indication that there is still a lot of big money in this mkt. 8K points worth of money has left the mkt. Who was that? Avg. investors? I believe the majority of those left are the working class (401k holders) that face penalties and lack the sophistications of where to put their money should they pull out.

A major pop needs to start somewhere (REAL money saying GO) and I see no indication that they are willing to do that.

I'm not in the market except for various mining stocks which are a different animal but I read the various analyst opinions and they say the market is way oversold and could rally. Of course they have been saying that for several thousand points down but think of Silver dropping so much last year as reverse logic. It didn't make any sense and in hind sight it still doesn't really make any sense. Sooo, I think the bottom callers will eventually call it right and the market will stage a rally, but to where and for how long. Trend looks down for the long haul with suprises in between. Place your bets or watch from the sidelines. Market soft again today. Rallies have no legs yet.

cfole
9th March 2009, 17:59
Also Faber said the same:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeDRhNolpJIg&refer=home

Will be a nice time for buy gold and Silver (down)... :rolleyes:

Waiting for!

Warren Buffett was also saying at 7K that it was a great time to buy. Look at all the deals he said. Last week he sold off half of his position in equities and told investors in Berkshire Hathaway that the US economic situation is "in shambles".

Take your pick, there are plenty of people willing to "guess" but that is all it is. A rally takes money pure and simple, hopes of a rally do not.

Debt, Financials, and Government regulation will take precedence over a rally IMO. Until that time, I am not optimistic.

Besides, this stimulus plan that spent 26.6 BILLION dollars to create 60 new jobs, how much do you suppose will be lost in the red tape and never see the light of day outside of personal bank acct.'s?

research24
9th March 2009, 18:17
I'm not in the market except for various mining stocks which are a different animal but I read the various analyst opinions and they say the market is way oversold and could rally. Of course they have been saying that for several thousand points down but think of Silver dropping so much last year as reverse logic. It didn't make any sense and in hind sight it still doesn't really make any sense. Sooo, I think the bottom callers will eventually call it right and the market will stage a rally, but to where and for how long. Trend looks down for the long haul with suprises in between. Place your bets or watch from the sidelines. Market soft again today. Rallies have no legs yet.

Cramer just did a little monologue on this. He seems to be resigned that a rally is not coming. As for myself, nothing the market does surprises me anymore. It could evaporate overnight and I would yawn.

When you are on a sinking ship that is also on fire, the only thing to hope for is that you are dreaming.

Crashdyv
9th March 2009, 18:40
yes rallies will occur during crashes. the rallies can be quite large before turning down again.

http://www.signaltrend.com/Stock-Market-Great-Depression.html

interesting chart here, shows the 1920's through 1940 or so, and 1992 through the present. nice correlation isn't it?

TripleD
9th March 2009, 18:50
I took away from the Glenn Beck comments that it will be a manipulated false bear rally for the ***PURPOSE*** of destroying more wealth.

Those big players left in the markets will get out somewhere near the top of the rally and Grandma and Grandpa...without good advice, will be left with even less than they have today.

Ardent Listener
9th March 2009, 18:56
yes rallies will occur during crashes. the rallies can be quite large before turning down again.

http://www.signaltrend.com/Stock-Market-Great-Depression.html

interesting chart here, shows the 1920's through 1940 or so, and 1992 through the present. nice correlation isn't it?

Yes, I won't rule out a rally or rallies. I can't open your chart but look at any 1929/depression chart and you will see the false rallies. A true rally or getting back to even didn't come until the 1950s and that's not adjusted for inflation.

skijake
9th March 2009, 19:00
Cramer just did a little monologue on this. He seems to be resigned that a rally is not coming. As for myself, nothing the market does surprises me anymore. It could evaporate overnight and I would yawn.

When you are on a sinking ship that is also on fire, the only thing to hope for is that you are dreaming.

I just lifted this off Sinclaire's site and it seems to apply.
A little nap sounds like a good idea.:rolleyes:

The one point in all of this yo-yo trading is that we are nowhere near seeing a long term bottom in equities. There are way, way too many people looking to try to pick a bottom in the stock market. That sort of mentality is not synonymous with bear market bottoms. Bear market bottoms occur when NO ONE wants anything to do with stocks and that means NO ONE. The way these guys plow back into equities and unload gold at the faintest whiff of a bottom in equities tells me that we have much lower to go into the DOW and the other equity indices. Short term trading bottoms – those are one thing – long term solid bottoms heralding viable economic recoveries – no way. Still too much optimism out there… just listen to the constant drum beat coming from CNBC among so many of their anchors and guests… “Well John – are we ready to bottom yet” “So tell me Jake – what you buying?” “Okay Sandy – we’re looking good today – just how high can we take this thing?” Does any of that sort of thing sound like capitulation or total despair? Are you kidding – there is too much hope for a bottom.

research24
9th March 2009, 19:48
Ski, I can't argue with that. An interesting tid bit of news today: Mr. & Ms 401K are beginning to sell off, and this is what is accounting for the slow, steady declines wiht big jerks of volatility in between. I am sometimes able to watch the ticker all day long and I have never seen anything like this kind of action. It is really bizarre. It could be that a slow rate of capitulation turns into a flood.

I mentioned many months ago that I attend a daily breakfast club of about 75 people. They have stopped talking about their portfolios. When I ask any of them about it, they are either evasive or wave me off in a gesture of disgust. Resignation is setting in and they are getting angry.

Unless something turns the 401Ks around (unlikely) this could be real carnage.

skijake
9th March 2009, 21:28
Ski, I can't argue with that. An interesting tid bit of news today: Mr. & Ms 401K are beginning to sell off, and this is what is accounting for the slow, steady declines wiht big jerks of volatility in between. I am sometimes able to watch the ticker all day long and I have never seen anything like this kind of action. It is really bizarre. It could be that a slow rate of capitulation turns into a flood.


I mentioned many months ago that I attend a daily breakfast club of about 75 people. They have stopped talking about their portfolios. When I ask any of them about it, they are either evasive or wave me off in a gesture of disgust. Resignation is setting in and they are getting angry.

Unless something turns the 401Ks around (unlikely) this could be real carnage.

I have noticed a similar pattern with my customer base although there seems to be some hope left. Most seem like they are truly questioning their beliefs/convictions. Still I don't see blood running in the streets yet so I say the slow grind continues.
One of my favorite quotes,,, The Beatings will continue, until Morale improves!:p

research24
9th March 2009, 21:43
One of my favorite quotes,,, The Beatings will continue, until Morale improves!:p

That's about it. I think I should give up trying to guess what millions of people will collectively do. It's like trying to predict the direction of school of fish as a marlin stalks them.

Ardent Listener
10th March 2009, 15:38
Yes, I won't rule out a rally or rallies. I can't open your chart but look at any 1929/depression chart and you will see the false rallies. A true rally or getting back to even didn't come until the 1950s and that's not adjusted for inflation.

Well, what do you know, the DOW up 330 as I write this. False rally? You decide.

cfole
10th March 2009, 16:06
Well, what do you know, the DOW up 330 as I write this. False rally? You decide.

What has changed? This "rally" was spurred on by an internal memo that said CITI is becoming profitable. Wasn't this guy the same guy who in Nov. was saying they were cash rich and the stock price was a product of shorts? He did so on Thurs. and the following Sun. night they were in emergency mtg.'s with the Fed for 20 BILLION dollars.

Unfortunate that 200 yrs ago some "real" men fought and died for the right to have such irresponsibility.

cdavport
10th March 2009, 17:37
Cramer just did a little monologue on this. He seems to be resigned that a rally is not coming. As for myself, nothing the market does surprises me anymore. It could evaporate overnight and I would yawn.

When you are on a sinking ship that is also on fire, the only thing to hope for is that you are dreaming.

You could also hope for a nearby ship to save you. (This would be the role of silver & gold):D

research24
10th March 2009, 20:50
Well, what do you know, the DOW up 330 as I write this. False rally? You decide.

I decided by keeping my money under the mattress so to speak. And in silver, of course.

Praise the Lord and pass the silver, gold too, if you like.