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main1event
16th January 2009, 09:00
Okay now that we are off the lows, and the government has once again proven they intend to spend and there will not be a depression, the rally commences.

Like I said we are in a very tight channel from 8900 to 8000. Whichever way we will break will be significant. For shorts, I would reestablish my short at 8600, for longs I would be long now and get out at 8600.

Silver and Gold look really good, they both held their 50dma and today they bounced substantially. Gold may get that golden cross shortly, which would be tremendous. The dollar is completely overbought and we should have at least a $3.00 pullback from this level.

Be long or be wrong.

main1event
16th January 2009, 09:02
Buy and add DXO and FAS, I'm now even with FAS from yesterdays blood bath. However, DXO is doing quite nicely.

argentfilo
16th January 2009, 09:51
Buy and add DXO and FAS, I'm now even with FAS from yesterdays blood bath. However, DXO is doing quite nicely.

Main1, I watched the bloodbath yesterday. I was in FAZ and SKF. I sold both for a profit, although not at the intraday highs. I bought FAS @ 13.95 at the end of the afternoon when I was already pretty sure that we had seen a short term bottom. I also added to my DXO position.

What are your short term targets in FAS and DXO? How long do you think this rally will run?

argentfilo
16th January 2009, 12:32
Oooops!

Not good today

pbmaxb
16th January 2009, 13:04
still in my position of agq from 27.50 two days ago. bought FAZ again this morning when it was down 10% - imagine my luck. i think there will be a fas rally again today because of the incoming inaguration everyone thinks fas is the play. with the dollar holding and crude falling, i might be inclined to short crude right now i think its going more towards 30. tuesday might bring more rally to the dollar. im sure you stopped out on everything already today main

SilverHawk
16th January 2009, 13:32
Silver has shown some sharp spikes up in the last two weeks. Like some large buy orders were placed.

Today, silver has been on the increase since the London market opened and continued into the New York market. Somewhat uncharacteristic.

Could be beginning of a nice rally to $15 ?

Banks continue to show troubles, and the new wave of mortgage rate resets (ALT-A & ARMS) will further their losses. Compounding new foreclosures from a new catagory of families suffering income loss due to job cuts. 401K contribution cuts and withdrawals are starting to increase. Tax revenue decreasing. States forced to cut budgets will cut jobs and work hours.... More dominos falling and faster now.....

Hurry on Stimulus Check, want more silver, quick!

Ancona
16th January 2009, 13:59
The price of silver may waver around for a while, but remember, there are a shitload of shorts that have to cover or lose. Based upon hte sheer number of them, I doubt they will let us down by allowing silver to rise too much more. Wait for it.......the take down is coming.

main1event
16th January 2009, 15:24
Everyone gets tied up in emotion, so do I but I dont panic. Today's rally is predictable. We need silver to break out of 11.50 if it does we are talking a massive, massive Rally. I have a target of 15.50.

I think DXO is gonna go, it not acting well yet but I believe we'll see a run over 4 shortly.

I like FAS to 19.

I believe the market is going to get to 8600 in the short term, we'll take a look to see whats happening after that.

cfole
16th January 2009, 15:55
Everyone gets tied up in emotion, so do I but I dont panic. Today's rally is predictable. We need silver to break out of 11.50 if it does we are talking a massive, massive Rally. I have a target of 15.50.

I think DXO is gonna go, it not acting well yet but I believe we'll see a run over 4 shortly.

I like FAS to 19.

I believe the market is going to get to 8600 in the short term, we'll take a look to see whats happening after that.

main:

I'm not sure if it's paranoia or what, but I actually do not like the way this mkt. is trading. Almost feels as though everybody is daytrading.

Tons of matching trades in DXO today.

m.palmer1@verizon.net
16th January 2009, 16:24
The price of silver may waver around for a while, but remember, there are a shitload of shorts that have to cover or lose. Based upon hte sheer number of them, I doubt they will let us down by allowing silver to rise too much more. Wait for it.......the take down is coming.

Dear Ancona, Again, kudo's on your writing style! I suspect that any number of college's would be quick to hire you. Assuming that we see a near term Obama P.M. rally, how, where or when do you think your take down prediction would fit in? Thanx :>)

SkinnerVic
16th January 2009, 17:08
Everyone gets tied up in emotion, so do I but I dont panic. Today's rally is predictable. We need silver to break out of 11.50 if it does we are talking a massive, massive Rally. I have a target of 15.50.

I think DXO is gonna go, it not acting well yet but I believe we'll see a run over 4 shortly.

I like FAS to 19.

I believe the market is going to get to 8600 in the short term, we'll take a look to see whats happening after that.

I so got my a$$ handed to me on the wrong side of FAZ/FAS this morning (technical error on my part mostly, part on ISLAND not buying on limit!). I unemotionally switched modes and scalped it a bit taking a 6R loss and trimming it back to a 1R loss with a zero net FAZ/FAS straddle for the weekend. That means I just yank whatever isn't doing well Monday and I don't have to worry about it over the weekend!!

Time to relax (I've not had to resort to scalping in a long time, and I didn't like getting forced into it because of a bad position.) It's best to have the refresher courses now and again, only wish it were on my terms.

Ancona
16th January 2009, 17:36
Dear Ancona, Again, kudo's on your writing style! I suspect that any number of college's would be quick to hire you. Assuming that we see a near term Obama P.M. rally, how, where or when do you think your take down prediction would fit in? Thanx :>)


On the very best of days, it is difficult to predict the future. I rely on Kitco for hourly updates on metals, then I watch the LME to track foriegn sentiments. Watching world markets helps us track trends within a given market, be it metals, grains, cattle etc.

The problem with the PM market, is that a couple of banks [one of them is JP Morgan the other is suspected to be BOA] hold short positions, a bet that silver will fall, equal to over 25% of total annual production of silver. This is a controlling interest in the silver market, and they can take the price down virtually at will.

Why would they do this if the total value of the market is a drop in the bucket compared to their total portfolio??

The Federal Government does not want to see Americans hoarding their money. The Feds want us to consume, not save. The problem they have is that many of us have grown sick and tired of having our savings confiscated with artificially low interest rates. My money market account is paying me a whopping 0.24% per annum. That is about negative 10% in real terms.

The physical market has decoupled from the COMEX futures market simply because they have held the price at an artifical low for far too long. When you see premiums begin to rise again, it will be because all of our bretheren have started pulling assets out of non-performing bank accounts and put them into PM's. As a result, the premiums to buy and sell silver will rise significantly beyond the futures price.

As far as when this will happen, it already is to some extent. Remember, those short positions eventually have to cover or sell, and my humble opinion is that this day is coming right soon. The Obama bounce may or may not hold with PM's, and it may or may not hold with stocks, but we will see either a coupled, or decoupled rise in metals, that will grow wings as the Obama stimulus and the promised government forced lending by banks hits the street. An exponential increase in the cash money supply in actual circulation can do nothing other than create massive inflation. This will be the panic trigger. Folks will pile into metal like they did last spring.

Happy stacking.

BTW, I am writing an essay on this very subject, and will post it when I am finished. Most folks will be bored by it, but I have some good information to disseminate, and I will be sure to place it here for review and discussion.

research24
16th January 2009, 18:11
main:

I'm not sure if it's paranoia or what, but I actually do not like the way this mkt. is trading. Almost feels as though everybody is daytrading.

That's about it. All about the swing trades although there was some longs hot on Obama today. At least the Fed worshippers are gone! Bernanke speaks and the market doesn't budge. He's probably crushed.