Gunner
1st August 2007, 15:29
Many analysts, commentators, economists, and general silver enthusiasts have reported above ground estimates of Silver of between 300 million and one billion ounces. A sizable difference I would say!
The Silver Institute provides reasonably accurate numbers for mined silver and also silver usage by category, but everyone simply speculates on the total above ground existing inventory.
As of 7/31/07 the Comex reports Silver Warehouse Stocks as follows:
Total Registered - 69,417,607
Total Eligible - 62,688,362
Combined Total - 132,105,969
The US government stated their inventory was essentially depleted some time ago and are currently acquiring silver in the open market for silver coinage. Billions of previous ounces frittered away at ridiculous prices over decades!
In today's world of minimal inventory management, I don't suspect much silver is stock piled by corporate end users, other than short term managed needs.
The new ETF currently has around 120 million ounces, but regardless if that number is accurate or not, IMHO those supplies will unlikely be used in the future for anything but investment collateral, regardless of market price. In other words if a share price reaches $100 or drops to $10, some investor will want to own that share and even though the physical silver may be considered above ground inventory, for all practical purposes it would be unavailable for use.
Furthermore new ETF's or hedge funds will undoubtedly do the same thing given the success of the initial ETF, which simply takes more inventory off the market. My point is, this inventory may need to be counted, but for all practical purposes will not be available and a foot note should accompany such figures. I suspect this is like the Total Registered category under Comex Warehouse stocks, in fact some of this Registered Comex inventory may be owned by ETF's, billionaires, or people like myself.
Warren Buffet sold his major interest and other investors like Gates and Soros may have a supply or may simply own silver shares, I don't know! Physical is what I am looking for in this question? But who knows what other billionaires have stored in their vaults around the world. It seems to me that a billionaire would care less about safety as a reason for holding silver but rather as another investment play. Under this scenario who knows what inventory may flood the market on any given day!
So the unknown silver supply comes from two unverifiable sources, individuals and national treasuries. I wonder if any country has available numbers for the world to review. I doubt China and Russia would share their numbers if they have any at all, but China was supplying significant silver as recently as several years ago.
India is another source rich in silver, principally owned by individuals, but I wonder if individuals would shed their investment even if the price escalated, as silver is regarded as a safety net investment to millions of Indians.
During the 70's in America, after the price went sky high most Americans sold their hoards and I suspect very little is available from John Doe Public for melt down if the price shot high again.
I suspect people like myself who have invested in coin and bullion will at some point shed their silver, but who knows collectively what we all have, an impossible job to determine in my opinion?
So with a historical shortage of supply versus demand and current known supplies being depleted, where will the replacement supply come from and what are those numbers?
I would appreciate others observations on the current above ground silver inventory supply and just how long this known "usable" supply would last under current demand, and how much "quiet" silver such as my own supply, may be stored around the world for potential sale and use?
Even if we guess fairly accurately, or can back into some numbers based on past mining and usage numbers, how can we possibly determine when we will all be willing to sell? Regardless, I think the subject may yield some interesting perspectives and possibly valid new data.
First time post.
Gunner
The Silver Institute provides reasonably accurate numbers for mined silver and also silver usage by category, but everyone simply speculates on the total above ground existing inventory.
As of 7/31/07 the Comex reports Silver Warehouse Stocks as follows:
Total Registered - 69,417,607
Total Eligible - 62,688,362
Combined Total - 132,105,969
The US government stated their inventory was essentially depleted some time ago and are currently acquiring silver in the open market for silver coinage. Billions of previous ounces frittered away at ridiculous prices over decades!
In today's world of minimal inventory management, I don't suspect much silver is stock piled by corporate end users, other than short term managed needs.
The new ETF currently has around 120 million ounces, but regardless if that number is accurate or not, IMHO those supplies will unlikely be used in the future for anything but investment collateral, regardless of market price. In other words if a share price reaches $100 or drops to $10, some investor will want to own that share and even though the physical silver may be considered above ground inventory, for all practical purposes it would be unavailable for use.
Furthermore new ETF's or hedge funds will undoubtedly do the same thing given the success of the initial ETF, which simply takes more inventory off the market. My point is, this inventory may need to be counted, but for all practical purposes will not be available and a foot note should accompany such figures. I suspect this is like the Total Registered category under Comex Warehouse stocks, in fact some of this Registered Comex inventory may be owned by ETF's, billionaires, or people like myself.
Warren Buffet sold his major interest and other investors like Gates and Soros may have a supply or may simply own silver shares, I don't know! Physical is what I am looking for in this question? But who knows what other billionaires have stored in their vaults around the world. It seems to me that a billionaire would care less about safety as a reason for holding silver but rather as another investment play. Under this scenario who knows what inventory may flood the market on any given day!
So the unknown silver supply comes from two unverifiable sources, individuals and national treasuries. I wonder if any country has available numbers for the world to review. I doubt China and Russia would share their numbers if they have any at all, but China was supplying significant silver as recently as several years ago.
India is another source rich in silver, principally owned by individuals, but I wonder if individuals would shed their investment even if the price escalated, as silver is regarded as a safety net investment to millions of Indians.
During the 70's in America, after the price went sky high most Americans sold their hoards and I suspect very little is available from John Doe Public for melt down if the price shot high again.
I suspect people like myself who have invested in coin and bullion will at some point shed their silver, but who knows collectively what we all have, an impossible job to determine in my opinion?
So with a historical shortage of supply versus demand and current known supplies being depleted, where will the replacement supply come from and what are those numbers?
I would appreciate others observations on the current above ground silver inventory supply and just how long this known "usable" supply would last under current demand, and how much "quiet" silver such as my own supply, may be stored around the world for potential sale and use?
Even if we guess fairly accurately, or can back into some numbers based on past mining and usage numbers, how can we possibly determine when we will all be willing to sell? Regardless, I think the subject may yield some interesting perspectives and possibly valid new data.
First time post.
Gunner