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main1event
1st December 2008, 10:59
This market looks like its a stones throw away from tanking. I'm now fully short the market. This rally on the surface looked very good, but many more stocks have been hitting all time lows versus stocks hitting new highs. Stock selling pressure has also been hitting new highs. This should not happen if we had reached a bottom. Today is shaping up to be a 90% down day.

I'm not sure how well gold and silver will hold up in this environment but if today is any indication, it doesnt look good. 9.05 has to hold on Silver and 760 on gold.

We could be down 700 to 800 pts by the end of today. The dow is currently down 390, if we roll over completely today, we are screwed. Put on your crash protection gear. Next stop Dow 7400 and after that Dow 5000

goldragon
1st December 2008, 11:18
main, it seems to me that today may be a reversal day. Currently both FXP and EEV are reversing and GDX is turns up. Hoping this will be persisting. Otherwise your prediction will be correct!

main1event
1st December 2008, 11:21
Silver has filled its gap, Gold has not. If they do not close strong within the next couple of hours there could be further selling ahead. Watch those strong support lines, if they break we could be looking at new lows for commodities and with it new lows in the market.

main1event
1st December 2008, 11:23
Just watch Financials. Goldman is down 15%, JPM down 9% and they are hitting new lows as I type. The market is going to follow financials.

chux03
1st December 2008, 11:43
Just look at stock symbol SKF which is the ProShares Ultra Short Financials. When that one heads up on a tear, financials are headed the other way and that's what's happening today. The only thing that swings wilder than this one is....what we all like holding here.
Currently it's up over $20 but that's nothing. I've seen some real swings with this one. Definitely NOT for the faint of heart and for sure not a buy and forget stock either. Keep an eye on SKF when the banks/financials are having a bad day. It's nice to know SOMEONE'S having a good day!!! :D

goldragon
1st December 2008, 11:45
Main1, you have correct reasons, I will wait for a while then make a decision if I need to dump my GDX and silver stocks. It seems you are correct till now!

augernaut
1st December 2008, 11:48
damn-damn-damn............damn!!!!

goldragon
1st December 2008, 11:50
GOLD has a solid support @770, Silver @9.00. We need to be little bit patient.

goldragon
1st December 2008, 11:59
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold-drops-6-silver-falls/story.aspx?guid={39AE7183-958E-4CE2-924C-CB33702D5FE1}&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN

Aksura
1st December 2008, 12:02
GOLD has a solid support @770, Silver @9.00. We need to be little bit patient.

we "silverbug" had been trained by the recent events to be very patient or total loss our control. i will wait a few more days before going in again...maybe below 9.50.

goldragon
1st December 2008, 12:16
GLD holds 76.3, SLV holds 9.28 very well, but the thing makes me to worry is GDX is going down and down!!

SkinnerVic
1st December 2008, 12:24
GLD holds 76.3, SLV holds 9.28 very well, but the thing makes me to worry is GDX is going down and down!!

The juniors and such got a double boost between stocks going up and the surge in PM prices. They get slapped when the opposite occurs - no surprises there. I expect it to find support at 18.5~ish.

goldragon
1st December 2008, 13:17
today is a panic sell day, as a value investor, you may buy the panic, it is also a great way to benefit from a bear market. this is the Templeton way.
Nobody can predict the stock market correctly 100%. However, recently Marc Faber and Bob Hoye did it far better than any of the newsletters. Both of them think that gold, especially its stocks, will go up. Marc thinks they will be up till the early month of next year. Hoye thinks they will be in bull for several years. I am a technician for quite some time. I think both of them are correct. This is because both have much more experience and knowledge. Thus I listen to them. Buying dip is a good way.
My experience is:
When stocks are up, people become very greed and they are afraid of being left by the train. They buy at any price. When the market is down, people become more fear, they want to wait for better low price, this usually let them miss buying opportunities.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aTyN07fDbZYw&refer=commodities

goldragon
2nd December 2008, 17:38
It looks like we are going to have a good time for the oversold gold stocks and especially to silver stocks:
First the USD is forming SHS pattern, somebody was not convinced yesterday, please take a look now
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d12
Second, after yesterday's sell of today we have a good day.
CDE +15.69% (count the after hour trading)
SLW +16.89%
GDX +11.07%
HL +8.99%
According to the 1929 and 1737 models, we are in gold bull market now!

goldragon
2nd December 2008, 17:45
Usually only a very small part of people can be convinced for the bull market. Most of people are hesitate. only when gold stocks zoom up for a while, then people follow the trend.
When you have a bull, as a trader, you can use buy and hold before the major correction.
I know many friends will argue with me on the above point, but we shall see. If I am wrong I will correct myself.

goldragon
2nd December 2008, 20:40
to buy when others are despondently selling and sell when others are avidly buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest ultimate rewards.

research24
2nd December 2008, 20:45
FWIW, my prediction is ultimately Dow 2,500 when its all over. This will be the "greatest depression" and will last the longest, probably 20 years.

"A nation that makes nothing is worth nothing." That is a lot to overcome. So is the fact that half our GDP is represented by production of debt, not anything of real value.

goldragon
3rd December 2008, 10:55
bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.
the time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell!

jason
3rd December 2008, 11:01
bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.
the time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell!

hi golddragon are you long the dow/s&p??

goldragon
3rd December 2008, 11:08
I only buy gold and silver stocks. They are the best bargain in the town. Of course you can but UYG, but you need to sell it when the new year starts.
please listen to Marc Faber last week. He is the man. Also read Bob Hoye. He did not make any mistake in this bear till now!