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S1lverBullet
5th February 2011, 17:12
Assuming that the debt crisis and money printing get much worse, I have an interesting scenario that I would like to run past you guys. Say silver is 500 and gold is 5000 in five years time. The GSR is 10:1. If conditions are this severe, have the stock market crashed or flown to 36,000 because of the massive amounts of money printing? When one goes to dispatch of the silver at 500, does he A) transfer all into gold or B) buy stocks and wait for the market to come back. If you time this right, you can sell the PMs at a very high price and buy stocks for pennies on the dollar. But this only happens if the market has crashed. Do we see a new gold backed monetary system? What are your future plans for investing after you have made your money in silver? I would like your input, it seems that the scenarios in the future are thousands and endless. There are too many what ifs. Do the republicans win the presidency and senate in 2012 and implement massive austerity programs therefore crashing the PM's, or do PM's fly because of something like this? What do you guys think??

What is Truth?
5th February 2011, 17:23
Assuming that the debt crisis and money printing get much worse, I have an interesting scenario that I would like to run past you guys. Say silver is 500 and gold is 5000 in five years time. The GSR is 10:1. If conditions are this severe, have the stock market crashed or flown to 36,000 because of the massive amounts of money printing? When one goes to dispatch of the silver at 500, does he A) transfer all into gold or B) buy stocks and wait for the market to come back. If you time this right, you can sell the PMs at a very high price and buy stocks for pennies on the dollar. But this only happens if the market has crashed. Do we see a new gold backed monetary system? What are your future plans for investing after you have made your money in silver? I would like your input, it seems that the scenarios in the future are thousands and endless. There are too many what ifs. Do the republicans win the presidency and senate in 2012 and implement massive austerity programs therefore crashing the PM's, or do PM's fly because of something like this? What do you guys think??

Going by your scenario I would say to stay into silver (C). Unless there is a stable money then why get out? The ten to one ratio wouldn't happen unless there were good reasons for it to ocur. I don't think that our money would only be tied to gold again. Even Ron Paul is calling for a commodities based money, not a single gold standard. Getting back into stocks without a stable money would be like a dog chasing its tail.

S1lverBullet
6th February 2011, 10:51
bump! has everyone else not thought about this? Cmon I know you have what are your thoughts?

silverheartbone
6th February 2011, 11:02
Assuming that the debt crisis and money printing get much worse, I have an interesting scenario that I would like to run past you guys. Say silver is 500 and gold is 5000 in five years time. The GSR is 10:1. If conditions are this severe, have the stock market crashed or flown to 36,000 because of the massive amounts of money printing? When one goes to dispatch of the silver at 500, does he A) transfer all into gold or B) buy stocks and wait for the market to come back. If you time this right, you can sell the PMs at a very high price and buy stocks for pennies on the dollar. But this only happens if the market has crashed. Do we see a new gold backed monetary system? What are your future plans for investing after you have made your money in silver? I would like your input, it seems that the scenarios in the future are thousands and endless. There are too many what ifs. Do the republicans win the presidency and senate in 2012 and implement massive austerity programs therefore crashing the PM's, or do PM's fly because of something like this? What do you guys think??

Four questions in one post are three two many. http://forums.silverseek.com/images/icons/icon11.png
You need to use whitespace in your posts to help get your points across.
The other text editing tools (located above where you type in your post) are also helpful.

crashjp
6th February 2011, 12:17
Assuming that the debt crisis and money printing get much worse, I have an interesting scenario that I would like to run past you guys. Say silver is 500 and gold is 5000 in five years time. The GSR is 10:1. If conditions are this severe, have the stock market crashed or flown to 36,000 because of the massive amounts of money printing? When one goes to dispatch of the silver at 500, does he A) transfer all into gold or B) buy stocks and wait for the market to come back. If you time this right, you can sell the PMs at a very high price and buy stocks for pennies on the dollar. But this only happens if the market has crashed. Do we see a new gold backed monetary system? What are your future plans for investing after you have made your money in silver? I would like your input, it seems that the scenarios in the future are thousands and endless. There are too many what ifs. Do the republicans win the presidency and senate in 2012 and implement massive austerity programs therefore crashing the PM's, or do PM's fly because of something like this? What do you guys think??

The mogambo guru touched on this a few weeks back he said we sell our gold and silver at it higest, after the crash we buy bonds when they are at their lowest, sounds reasonable to me.

DaleFromCalgary
6th February 2011, 12:45
Don't forget the gold to Dow Jones ratio. When it goes to 1, time to switch some bullion into stocks, probably commodity or food companies. It also depends on your view of the inflation rate; if it seems to be under control, then diversify to other investments. About ten years from now the real estate market will have finally bottomed out in selected locations, such as inner cities or next to train stations. I don't believe that far-flung suburbs with no services within walking distance will ever recover.

silverheartbone
6th February 2011, 12:53
Don't forget the gold to Dow Jones ratio. When it goes to 1, time to switch some bullion into stocks, probably commodity or food companies. It also depends on your view of the inflation rate; if it seems to be under control, then diversify to other investments. About ten years from now the real estate market will have finally bottomed out in selected locations, such as inner cities or next to train stations. I don't believe that far-flung suburbs with no services within walking distance will ever recover.

Don't forget this more pertinent ratio (http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?16017-The-Dow-Silver-Ratio&p=153316#post153316).

S1lverBullet
7th February 2011, 09:49
Yeah I was thinking real estate and bonds if interest rates are 10+%, but I'm not sure they ever will go up because remember if Ben hikes rates then the feds have to pay a much higher rate to service their debt. How the **** are they going to pay 12% on a 14 trillion dollar debt? When people warn about a deflationary spiral I just want to laugh because it will NEVER HAPPEN. We are past the point where that is an option. We have started down the path of money printing, and I don't think Ben will stop until all of the bad debt has un-leveraged its way out of the system, even if that means our dollar gets a 70% haircut.

DaleFromCalgary
8th February 2011, 11:58
even if that means our dollar gets a 70% haircut.

People commonly state that the US$ has already been cut 93% since the Federal Reserve was formed, so the 70% haircut would be on the remaining 7%.
Another way to calculate it is that it only took $20.17 to buy an ounce of gold in 1913 but today you need about $1,450 to buy a coin over the counter. (The quoted New York rate is for paper gold and not applicable for retail individuals who want actual physical metal in small quantities.)

Steadfast
8th February 2011, 12:23
If the ratio drops to 10/1... we will be in a real chaotic situation here in the good ol' USA....
with an almost dead dollar... with all the "non-planning" idiots running about in our large cities looting and such.

BEFORE... this... point...
I plan to have already converted most all of my silver over to fractional gold for easy transport inside a ratty looking leather belt.
I will keep some of my smaller 90% silver coins for quick travel, fast ammo purchases, and for being mugged purposes.
Also, if it gets that ugly, I plan to be living as far from the cities as possible by then too.

Remember, empires like Rome did not fall "overnight" but over several year’s time.
So theoretically, we will have some time to see the writing on the wall, long enough to convert over to gold.

Now, if silver simply is reacts to a sharp rise, due to the death of the ETF, combined with Jimmy Carter X3 inflation,
leading to simply another depression, followed by a slow recovery,
I will have great silver security, and make some really great money, when I sell it on line at its near historic peak.

(That, of course, ( wink ) assumes I actually own an ounce of silver by then,
after having lost everything in that "tragic boating accident" earlier this year)