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research24
6th November 2008, 13:29
All you speculators won't want to hear this but I will say it anyway. We have lost sight of the big picture and let the gold bugs influence our thinking. The BIG PICTURE is depression, and contrary to claims of people like Peter Schiff, an inflationary depression is an oxymoron.

Deflation, caused by a massive sell-off in assets is outstripping inflation by around 20:1. The government has spent $2.6 trillion, of which only $500 billion was actual money creation and the rest were loans. Note that loans or credit is not inflatinary if it isn't spent into the economy. All the money lent to banks has gone into the black hole of their balance sheets, and has not and will not cause inflation since they WILL NOT LEND. Not in the next 3 years anyway.

Efforts to prop up the yen carry trade by propping up the yen have failed. The yen is back down to 97 and falling. When it rose for several days, the hedge funds started borrowing from Bank of Japan, but when yen dropped again, BoJ shut its doors again and the stock markets crashed.

The dollar is rising again because the sell-off in assets has resumed. We are at, or near, the capitulation point, which is where the stock junkies throw in the towel realizing that the bottom is nowhere near in sight. The horrid Xmas sales numbers will drive the final nail in the coffin. I keep harping on Xmas sales because it is going to be like a two-by-four upside the head. For the Uncle Sugar to even make a dent in this deflation, he'd have to throw out $5 trillion in cash to the public, which would be $25,000 per household (that estimate is mine).

This deflation is worldwide and affects everything. And it is responsible for the strengthening dollar which will not collapse unless the US gummint does. Soon we will see another round of financial collapses with another round of CDS explosions and bond failures, far bigger than the last. An entire sewage plant is going to hit the fan. Ambac and MBIA bond insurers are going down. As Rick Santelli put it, its like throwing a handful of golfballs into a roomful of mousetraps. Uncle Sugar will also have to capitulate as the coming implosions are far bigger than any government.

You'd really have to twist reality into a pretzel to get inflation out of this disaster.

MikeJ
6th November 2008, 13:34
So people like Schiff, Jim Sinclair, Jim Rogers, Doug Casey, are all wrong and you're right?? The government will HAVE to print money to prop the system up. All these bailouts are HIGHLY inflationary. Just a matter of time before it kicks in.

main1event
6th November 2008, 13:35
You give the U.S. way too much credit.

research24
6th November 2008, 13:37
So people like Schiff, Jim Sinclair, Jim Rogers, Doug Casey, are all wrong and you're right?? The government will HAVE to print money to prop the system up. All these bailouts are HIGHLY inflationary. Just a matter of time before it kicks in.

I'd be interested to hear how you explain falling prices as inflationary. Care to take a stab at it?

main1event
6th November 2008, 13:42
I'd be interested to hear how you explain falling prices as inflationary. Care to take a stab at it?

Are groceries costing you less? Is your insurance less? Have your taxes gone down? Did you lose your job and they are paying you less?

Falling prices have been happening for years. I bought a 50" plasma 4 years ago and it cost me 4000.00 today I can buy it for $1500.00

The truth is that though some things like equities, commodities and real estate are falling in price, they are still alot higher than they were 10 years ago. You have to look at the big picture.

MikeJ
6th November 2008, 13:42
I'd be interested to hear how you explain falling prices as inflationary. Care to take a stab at it?

Are the prices of the goods and services you buy going down?? Groceries, household products, etc? I don't think so. Gasoline is down, and is the natural correction that occurs in bull markets. Nothing goes straight up.

Kelly
6th November 2008, 13:43
Inflation or deflation, does it really matter? Anyway you look at it, it's going to devestate the economy. But let us not lose sight of the fact that we all know this is a manipulated event and the elitists responsible for this nightmare do have an endgame in mind.

Doubtless their goal is to at the very least create their "new global monetary authority" but I suspect they are aiming for far more than that.

This is a complete collapse. I doubt seriously if they would have produced anything this all-encompassing unless they were determined to also put a one-world currency in place.

They'll need the whole world on its knees crying "uncle" to pull it off. Don't you think they are aware of that?

research24
6th November 2008, 13:52
It matters to those who are speculating in silver and expect to make a profit on inflation.

Are prices going down? Yes, indeed, but don't expect everything to behave simultaneously or in concert. The manufacturing price index has veritably collapsed, six points I think. How about the price of a car, down a lot. And food prices are coming down. That $5 box of corn flakes is now $3.50. Meat is going up because farmers sold off their herds since they couldn't afford to feed them and there is shortage. Both my insurance and real estate taxes when down, as did my income.

And yes, they are paying me less. A lot less.

main1event
6th November 2008, 15:50
It matters to those who are speculating in silver and expect to make a profit on inflation.

Are prices going down? Yes, indeed, but don't expect everything to behave simultaneously or in concert. The manufacturing price index has veritably collapsed, six points I think. How about the price of a car, down a lot. And food prices are coming down. That $5 box of corn flakes is now $3.50. Meat is going up because farmers sold off their herds since they couldn't afford to feed them and there is shortage. Both my insurance and real estate taxes when down, as did my income.

And yes, they are paying me less. A lot less.

Glad you can live off of corn flakes.

strongman shelford
6th November 2008, 16:07
Ok. I Lived Through Economic Collapses Twice In My Life.
Let Me Help Those Who Talk From A Theoretical Point Of View.

There Were Recession And Deflation Before The Total Collapse Of The Currency. That Is Going To Happen To The Usa.

What Will Be Buying People As A Safe Haven? Euros?

Come On, Wake Up.

goldragon
6th November 2008, 16:14
Since now I can not post easily in this forum because I wanted delete a attached chart and got a big problem to post my view. However, I still want to say something.
I think currently we are still not bottomed out, and we are testing the bottom and then build the base for future going up. in 1929, the stock market bottomed for many times. finally Dow corrected to have 10% left (from 400 to 40). Thus we have to be patient.
Play bear rally is very beneficial, but you have to get in fast, and get out when you see the signs immediately. Otherwise, you will be caught hard.

goldragon
6th November 2008, 16:22
Yes, Jim rogers recently said silver is much better off than gold. But his original word was if people used gun to point his head to say investing in gold and silver, then he chose silver. He only said to buy physical. Marc Faber said the same thing. My understanding is we may need to wait for a while then invest in gold and silver. However I am only a 150 lbs monkey, what I know????

jason
6th November 2008, 16:24
and cover your ass with a strict money managed stop loss and trail it if your call is right

research24
6th November 2008, 19:25
Warren Buffet got his ass handed him in silver. Those people are't terrifically smart, they just have large research departments that probably make more mistakes than you or I do. These big money guys aren't infallible and are part of the manipulative establishment. Buffet's telling people to go buy stocks so he can liquidate his. For God's sake, think for yourselves. People like those are totally self-serving in their public pronouncements.

One_of_Many
6th November 2008, 21:22
research24 As much as I'd like to, I am having a hard time finding good reasons to disagree with you. A couple moths ago I would of made all the usual arguments why silver will go up. Now I'm not so sure.

I came across this article last night. It talks about the feds plan to create inflation. I doubt they can make it work. What's your opinion?


Deflation risk boosts inflation target case:

"The risk of deflation could lead Ben Bernanke to approach the new administration and Congress next year about adopting an *inflation target at the Federal Reserve, some experts believe....."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2d47d156-aaac-11dd-897c-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1