PDA

View Full Version : Any Guesses on Margin Requirements for COMEX Silver Contracts after March?



Mighty Moose
23rd January 2011, 03:35
This past week, margin requirements were raised once again by the CME. I believe this is the third
time already in the last few months. I think it is currently sitting at 8.25%.

Would anybody like to speculate what it'll by April 1st - that's on April Fool's Day?

You can't go too far wrong, chances are.....they're only going to be going UP! lol

Edmund Law
23rd January 2011, 07:37
Every time this happens the market for silver becomes a little more physical and a little less a paper market which represents steady progress towards a market where there is true price discovery for the physical commodity of finite supply. At present the Comex sets a paper price. Adrian Douglas has shown how over the last 10 years on average every day the price of silver rises in the Eastern physical market (true price discovery) and is then re-set downwards by paper selling on the Comex (manipulative price setting). Every time margin is raised the Comex loses a little more power. Paper buying/selling works on leverage to make sufficient profit to pay interest and still make a margin each option/future expiry date. Physical buying does not use leverage as there is no interest paid on silver. The manipulation weakens with every increase in margin over the medium/long term.

Edmund Law
23rd January 2011, 08:47
Eric Sprott needed 16 weeks to get all his phycical silver. So to buy/sell physical silver in bulk is now a 16 week minimum turn-around process complicated by storage and insurance requirements. Note that the exchnage(s) tried as hard as they could to deliver to him quickly as they knew he would point to the delay as evidence of physical shortage. Theoretically he should have had all his silver by the month expiry date for delivery. This all makes buying physical on leverage/margin impractical and therefore every incease in margin requirement makes the market more physical.

AgShaman
23rd January 2011, 11:09
I'm looking for a news blackout...meaning you will know where to find out that the large "Shorts" will not have issued all the required delivery notices to the "longs" that are standing for delivery...and MSM won't touch it.

I'm looking for margins to stay where they are now until March. After...no margins required.

I don't think there will be any trading after this event and it will lead to an ugly Force Majeure situation...forcing trading silver on the Comex to be abolished...and the price to look elsewhere for "discovery". The "longs" will be difficult to pacify with fiat and the offered cash settlement will not appease these reef sharks seeking the blood of JPM and HSBC.

The wildest of rides and a parabolic event....as in, sell some silver and pay off the house....then buy back in once the tsunami's waters recede.

At least that's the scenerio I'm hoping for....(hey, a guy can hope right?)

Crash Silver...Crash Damn You! (wait until tomorrow though)

skijake
23rd January 2011, 11:35
It seems they are trying to raise margins to stop the speculation but I think they are closer to default than they are a solution to their self induced negligence.
Default is the way to go.
"Bankruptcy!" Everybody's doing it!
http://static.businessinsider.com/~~/f?id=4a1fb2d214b9b98f00f44f47&maxX=400&maxY=

Mighty Moose
24th January 2011, 02:33
Yes, I believe it is as Edmund has suggested.

Ask yourself, why would the CME keep raising margins - now of all times - on silver? Of course, there will always be others around to 'irrationally' explain away the smoke until the whole structure is completely engulfed in flames for all to see.....at which point, some other group(s) or nation(s) will be falsely blamed for whatever occurs. More than likely, they will create more diversionary tactics to give cover for their dubious activities. This was already evidenced by the perfect timing of quietly raising margins on silver last week which coincided with the news of miniscule rate hikes in Brazil & China. This provided a perfect excuse, other than the margin hike itself, as to a plausible reason for silver's decline - a little slight of hand shall we say!

Just previously, as many here may already know, the CFTC had ruled in allowing virtually no limits on positions held by commercial traders such as JP Morgue & company. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe these unjust rulings were exclusive to silver and gold contracts (not as sure about gold). From what I understand when it comes down to it, EACH of these Big Boys, like JPM, can literally hold & trade contracts up to 125% of silver's annual mining production. In total, I guess trading silver contracts in the multi-hundreds to thousands of percent of annual production can ONLY be construde as 'legitimate' or "bona fide hedging" as they say, lol! Why does the word 'collusion' keep coming to mind?

Matthew Shelley
24th January 2011, 09:26
The number of fantastic and dead wrong statements in this particular thread astound me.

Matt

SilverJim
24th January 2011, 10:19
The number of fantastic and dead wrong statements in this particular thread astound me.

Matt

Can you please elaborate on what you mean? I am just a collector of physical silver but from what I have read over the years, I wouldn't trust the CFTC/CME too watch my dog. Something is not right there. Too much smoke for no fire. I note that silver has gone down for 3 wesk and they raise margin requirements. Seems odd. Are they expecting something?

Mighty Moose
24th January 2011, 10:24
The number of fantastic and dead wrong statements in this particular thread astound me.

Matt

Tell us what you think is to become of the USD? If you don't know or cannot discern what is about to happen, then I can't presume you know much of anything else outside of your paper box.

Permit me to tell you. It will be severely devalued from 50% to 70% no later than July of this year - could be as early as May. It is going to officially lose it's Petro dollar status & no longer serve the function of being a world reserve currency.

Your matrix is coming down. After this, you will no longer have a job trading anymore bogus leveraged paper because the actual underlying assets, if any, will be competely unplugged from your world.

I know you won't believe what I've just said, but wait & see. You won't be disappointed.

silverheartbone
24th January 2011, 10:30
Tell us what you think is to become of the USD? If you don't know or cannot discern what is about to happen, then I can't presume you know much of anything else outside of your paper box.

Permit me to tell you. It will be severely devalued from 50% to 70% no later than July of this year - could be as early as May. It is going to officially lose it's Petro dollar status & no longer serve the function of being a world reserve currency.

Your matrix is coming down. After this, you will no longer have a job trading anymore bogus leveraged paper because the actual underlying assets, if any, will be competely unplugged from your world.

I know you won't believe what I've just said, but wait & see. You won't be disappointed.

We share the same vision Mighty.
Let's pray for the rapid death of the dollar and the zionist parasites which use it to prey.
I hope that is fantastic enough for you Matthew Shelley.

Matthew Shelley
24th January 2011, 11:13
Tell us what you think is to become of the USD? If you don't know or cannot discern what is about to happen, then I can't presume you know much of anything else outside of your paper box.
Permit me to tell you. It will be severely devalued from 50% to 70% no later than July of this year - could be as early as May. It is going to officially lose it's Petro dollar status & no longer serve the function of being a world reserve currency.
Your matrix is coming down. After this, you will no longer have a job trading anymore bogus leveraged paper because the actual underlying assets, if any, will be competely unplugged from your world.
I know you won't believe what I've just said, but wait & see. You won't be disappointed.

Why ask if you already "know"? And if all of your visions were to come true, I think I just might still be working. Trading metals is far from the only thing I do.

Matthew Shelley
Commodity Broker

As always: Trading in futures and options is very high risk investing. You can lose all or more of the money you invest. Only risk capital should be used.

Matthew Shelley
24th January 2011, 11:21
Can you please elaborate on what you mean? I am just a collector of physical silver but from what I have read over the years, I wouldn't trust the CFTC/CME too watch my dog. Something is not right there. Too much smoke for no fire. I note that silver has gone down for 3 wesk and they raise margin requirements. Seems odd. Are they expecting something?

Which post would you like me to pick apart?

I agree that the most recent margin change seemed a bit odd to me also, as it looked proactive rather than reactive as is usually the case. I don't, as some here do, assign a conspiracy label to it however. Margins are normally raised or lowered based on recent market movements, but it doesn't matter whether the move was up or down, all that matters is the amount.

Matthew Shelley
Commodity Broker

As always: Trading in futures and options is very high risk investing. You can lose all or more of the money you invest. Only risk capital should be used.

valerb
24th January 2011, 11:32
Yes, I believe it is as Edmund has suggested.

Ask yourself, why would the CME keep raising margins - now of all times - on silver? Of course, there will always be others around to 'irrationally' explain away the smoke until the whole structure is completely engulfed in flames for all to see.....at which point, some other group(s) or nation(s) will be falsely blamed for whatever occurs. More than likely, they will create more diversionary tactics to give cover for their dubious activities. This was already evidenced by the perfect timing of quietly raising margins on silver last week which coincided with the news of miniscule rate hikes in Brazil & China. This provided a perfect excuse, other than the margin hike itself, as to a plausible reason for silver's decline - a little slight of hand shall we say!

Just previously, as many here may already know, the CFTC had ruled in allowing virtually no limits on positions held by commercial traders such as JP Morgue & company. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe these unjust rulings were exclusive to silver and gold contracts (not as sure about gold). From what I understand when it comes down to it, EACH of these Big Boys, like JPM, can literally hold & trade contracts up to 125% of silver's annual mining production. In total, I guess trading silver contracts in the multi-hundreds to thousands of percent of annual production can ONLY be construde as 'legitimate' or "bona fide hedging" as they say, lol! Why does the word 'collusion' keep coming to mind?

I guess a simple explanation would fall under your reasoning as irrational, but it really is nothing more than common sense. Nothing that requires a computer to calculate the logic for something this simple.

When the price of a commodity increases the risk must also increase as well. Since it is a set figure, simple logic says it has to be manually adjusted over time to maintain some balance of risk. Now I'm not saying the CME group doesn't manipulate these increases at just the right time to encourage the market to go in a direction that may very well favor one group over another. With the price of Silver increasing 7 - 8 fold in less than ten years, you would expect numerous increases in the margins, especially when it increases more than 60% in just a few months. Keep in mind that margin increases are to try and keep the risk factor in line with the market and that is a two way street. There are a lot of long investors on the hook at over $30 an ounce and the declining price of Silver has put a some of these investors in serious trouble. So, does it not make sense to increase the margins when you have so many investors in hot water. It's not as if the price of Silver has declined by 40 cents in the past month. The market has taken a sizable hit in a very short period of time. Just keep in mind that the more volatile the market is, the greater the risk factor and a very good reason not to play in that market.

None of this should matter to you anyway, as your absolutely convinced that COMEX is taking a dive in March. So the only ones being screwed are the idiots who are all in and then receive a margin call.

If you think any recent margin increases are out of line, wait and see what happens during March and April if Silver really comes anywhere near $50 an ounce.

Mighty Moose
24th January 2011, 11:34
Why ask if you already "know"? And if all of your visions were to come true, I think I just might still be working. Trading metals is far from the only thing I do.

Matthew Shelley
Commodity Broker

As always: Trading in futures and options is very high risk investing. You can lose all or more of the money you invest. Only risk capital should be used.

Consider it a rhetorical question.

Out of any concern you might have in providing for your immediate family, I sure hope you will have a different source of work other than trading any paper instruments. Its all coming down soon very soon. I hope you've excepted Jesus Christ as your Lord & Saviour. Your soul is infinitely more important than your earth suit.

Mighty Moose
24th January 2011, 11:44
I guess a simple explanation would fall under your reasoning as irrational, but it really is nothing more than common sense. Nothing that requires a computer to calculate the logic for something this simple.

When the price of a commodity increases the risk must also increase as well. Since it is a set figure, simple logic says it has to be manually adjusted over time to maintain some balance of risk. Now I'm not saying the CME group doesn't manipulate these increases at just the right time to encourage the market to go in a direction that may very well favor one group over another. With the price of Silver increasing 7 - 8 fold in less than ten years, you would expect numerous increases in the margins, especially when it increases more than 60% in just a few months. Keep in mind that margin increases are to try and keep the risk factor in line with the market and that is a two way street. There are a lot of long investors on the hook at over $30 an ounce and the declining price of Silver has put a some of these investors in serious trouble. So, does it not make sense to increase the margins when you have so many investors in hot water. It's not as if the price of Silver has declined by 40 cents in the past month. The market has taken a sizable hit in a very short period of time. Just keep in mind that the more volatile the market is, the greater the risk factor and a very good reason not to play in that market.

None of this should matter to you anyway, as your absolutely convinced that COMEX is taking a dive in March. So the only ones being screwed are the idiots who are all in and then receive a margin call.

If you think any recent margin increases are out of line, wait and see what happens during March and April if Silver really comes anywhere near $50 an ounce.

Your arguement doesn't hold water. Look at the last margin increase, they increased them when silver was moving up in a nice orderly fashion. After they did this, that is when things got ugly & disorderly/volatile, after silver was forced to be sold off due to margin calls caused by a sudden margin hike.

....and how come there's been no dramatic or frequent margin hikes in any of the other hot-paced commodity markets?

valerb
24th January 2011, 12:27
Your arguement doesn't hold water. Look at the last margin increase, they increased them when silver was moving up in a nice orderly fashion.

From August on, was not a nice orderly fashion. Only a Long investor would call that orderly. Those on the Short side would disagree and so would all of the brokers.

After they did this, that is when things got ugly & disorderly/volatile, after silver was forced to be sold off due to margin calls caused by a sudden margin hike.

You don't raise the margin on one side, it is raised on both. The Short contract holders were in serious trouble and a margin increase was needed to balance the risk. Everyone in the market is aware of these potential margin changes. Those playing too close to the vest were knocked out of the game. It's their own damn fault and we get screwed with them or at least the value of our Silver does.

....and how come there's been no dramatic or frequent margin hikes in any of the other hot-paced commodity markets?

Silver is considered the most volatile metal and one should expect to see more changes in that market place than other metals. I do find it amusing that only the long contract holders are the ones hurt by these margin hikes. If you look at the COT report, you'll notice that Large speculators and Small speculators alike have Short contracts and the Commercial Longs are a very sizable number as well. It's not a one sided war going on at COMEX, JP Morgan Shorts versus everyone else.

skijake
24th January 2011, 13:01
Your arguement doesn't hold water. Look at the last margin increase, they increased them when silver was moving up in a nice orderly fashion.

From August on, was not a nice orderly fashion. Only a Long investor would call that orderly. Those on the Short side would disagree and so would all of the brokers.

After they did this, that is when things got ugly & disorderly/volatile, after silver was forced to be sold off due to margin calls caused by a sudden margin hike.

You don't raise the margin on one side, it is raised on both. The Short contract holders were in serious trouble and a margin increase was needed to balance the risk. Everyone in the market is aware of these potential margin changes. Those playing too close to the vest were knocked out of the game. It's their own damn fault and we get screwed with them or at least the value of our Silver does.

....and how come there's been no dramatic or frequent margin hikes in any of the other hot-paced commodity markets?

Silver is considered the most volatile metal and one should expect to see more changes in that market place than other metals. I do find it amusing that only the long contract holders are the ones hurt by these margin hikes. If you look at the COT report, you'll notice that Large speculators and Small speculators alike have Short contracts and the Commercial Longs are a very sizable number as well. It's not a one sided war going on at COMEX, JP Morgan Shorts versus everyone else.

Who gives a damn about the shorts?
If you don't have the physical you shouldn't be allowed to play.
These guys enter the casino and then things aren't going well,,,,Rule Change.
It wreaks of corruption, technicalities aside.
No one would ever enter a sporting event where the rules change. No, actually I'm wrong there. WWF probably applies in that case. Maybe that's where they get these ideas.
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/00684/high-kick_684628n.jpg

valerb
24th January 2011, 13:28
That's why I don't play in the COMEX sand box!!

That's probably what a lot of new people who jumped in above $30 are saying about Silver in general. What did I get myself into? I just hope they don't have to wait as long as those who jumped in above $20 had to wait to break even.

Mighty Moose
24th January 2011, 14:00
Your arguement doesn't hold water. Look at the last margin increase, they increased them when silver was moving up in a nice orderly fashion.

From August on, was not a nice orderly fashion. Only a Long investor would call that orderly. Those on the Short side would disagree and so would all of the brokers.

After they did this, that is when things got ugly & disorderly/volatile, after silver was forced to be sold off due to margin calls caused by a sudden margin hike.

You don't raise the margin on one side, it is raised on both. The Short contract holders were in serious trouble and a margin increase was needed to balance the risk. Everyone in the market is aware of these potential margin changes. Those playing too close to the vest were knocked out of the game. It's their own damn fault and we get screwed with them or at least the value of our Silver does.

....and how come there's been no dramatic or frequent margin hikes in any of the other hot-paced commodity markets?

Silver is considered the most volatile metal and one should expect to see more changes in that market place than other metals. I do find it amusing that only the long contract holders are the ones hurt by these margin hikes. If you look at the COT report, you'll notice that Large speculators and Small speculators alike have Short contracts and the Commercial Longs are a very sizable number as well. It's not a one sided war going on at COMEX, JP Morgan Shorts versus everyone else.

Yes, both sides are equally effected to a degree, but do you think commercials like HSBC, JPM & other big banks holding shorts care who becomes collateral damage in the process. These commercial banks are the ones with all the access to the interest-free hot money from the FED window or another central banking entity. Who cares when your casino chips are free & you can cover margins without batting an eyelash while everyone else scrambles like mad to scrape up some cash.

And who's to say that certain infamous players aren't tipped off by the owners of the exchange/casino about the upcoming margin hike. Chances are, they were all in the same meeting when the new game plan was drawn up.....kinda like skijake's reference to fake wrestling. Okay guys, this is who's gonna win tonight's match & this is how its gonna go down......and don't forget to call in our phony referee (the CFTC) to make everything look legitimate & fair, ha ha ha.

Intended goal: make silver look bad, make fiat paper money look good, especially the FRN.

Mighty Moose
18th February 2011, 16:08
This past week, margin requirements were raised once again by the CME. I believe this is the third
time already in the last few months. I think it is currently sitting at 8.25%.

Would anybody like to speculate what it'll by April 1st - that's on April Fool's Day?

You can't go too far wrong, chances are.....they're only going to be going UP! lol

Well, they've done it again I hear! What is it now, 50%? This is at least the 4rth time, already, if not the 5th. Sheesh, I should've made another category or two for this poll.

Anyhow, it looks like majority of voters on this poll don't have too much faith in the CRIMEX: "The COMEX will stop trading silver indefinetly in absolute default"
They might be proven right....nahhhh.....CRIMEX will just raise margins to 1,000%, lol. :rolleyes: