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Holtz
14th January 2011, 13:56
Long time lurker here.

This seems to be a mostly bullish silver forum were people stack up for a long term investment. The reasons people are doing this seems to be a strong disbelief in paper currency and systems such as the Federal Reserve. There is also the accusations against JPM regarding silver manipulation. Lastly we have the demand for silver in industry and electrical equipment that would push the price up. While i agree with all of those points made i still feel a bit lost.

For some years silver have been steadily climbing its way up (this is perfectly normal if you consider the reasoning above) but the last months we have seen a steep spike in silver price. Why i ask myself. Why would silver not keep its steady climb up? Instead it skyrockets and now have (almost) flat lined.

Does this not look like a bubble? Does not a correction to around at least 25 bucks seem likely? What are your thoughts about this? I mean why have the price rose so steep? Usually when something like this happens and people cant explain it that means a bubble.

Please back up your statements with reasoning.

orlando_wrx
14th January 2011, 14:38
I assume your baseline is the US$? Instead, try comparing silver with sugar, coffee, soy, etc and you will see that it is not silver that is experiencing a "steep spike" but it is the US$ that has experienced a steep decline. The end goal of your labor is purchasing power, is it not? Then why not compare the items that are inevitable future purchases against what you're planning on purchasing them with, rather than comparing two seperate "stores" of value? The US$ is no more a constant than any equity/commodity/currency that you choose to meter it against.

skijake
14th January 2011, 15:12
Holtz,,,,Welcome!
I think all of your questions are regularly discussed here.
Your focus on the last 4 months of the year paint Silver with a very narrow brush.
I can only suggest that you view this as building a house not setting up a campsite.
Luck!

valerb
14th January 2011, 17:13
I assume your baseline is the US$? Instead, try comparing silver with sugar, coffee, soy, etc and you will see that it is not silver that is experiencing a "steep spike" but it is the US$ that has experienced a steep decline. The end goal of your labor is purchasing power, is it not? Then why not compare the items that are inevitable future purchases against what you're planning on purchasing them with, rather than comparing two separate "stores" of value? The US$ is no more a constant than any equity/commodity/currency that you choose to meter it against.

Your right, all those commodities have flat lined and it's really a falling dollar and all other currencies around the world. Or maybe it's due to speculation, like how much would Silver be worth today if it were not for a couple billion ounces or more being taken out of the market place by speculators like "US"? Are those food commodities really increasing in value because of all these failing currencies or does the fact that some really bad weather causing reduced crops, coupled with massive speculators have anything to do with it? Is oil at $90 a barrel because of failing currencies or the fact that it is manipulated and a lot of speculators jumping into and out of that market?

Let's get real here, remove all the gamblers and leave commodities to find their true value and they will all take a serious tumble. Yes that includes Gold and Silver. What would the true value of either be if gamblers (investors) didn't own any of those commodities. The rise in commodities is primarily investor driven, not the value of world currencies.

Why do the prices of electronic items continue to fall when food items are rising? It's simple, electronic items are not commodities and no one is gambling on them. They find there true market value and are not driven by manipulators like us. That's right, we are just as guilty as JP Morgan and all the other Short investors. They are trying to push the market in one direction to make a killing off of us and we are trying to drive the market in the other directions so we can make a killing. Now we can claim we are not in this to make money but to protect our wealth. It doesn't matter what the reason is, we are guilty of manipulating the market higher by taking the product off the market and causing a shortage. At least we are not killing people through starvation. How many people on this planet are living on next to nothing and the basic food staples of life are their greatest expense. Speculators jump into the market and double and triple the cost of items like sugar, corn and wheat, while millions of people are having to reduce the amount of food they eat because they can no longer afford it. So those speculators are actually causing pain and death by starvation, for no other reason than a quick buck. So if anyone knows how my investing in Silver is causing pain and suffering around the world, I don't want to know.

Consider if everyone never gambled in the stock market or commodities and lived within their means and actually made a modest amount of interest off their savings accounts. Where would the Dollar be then, fiat currency or not, compared to other currencies around the world? Where would our economy be if those greedy bastards never sent their manufacturing plants to China and other countries around the world, not to mention a few million service sector jobs to India? Yes, I believe the US would still be considered the land of milk and honey with streets pave with Gold and a few with Copper just to make CCJOE happy.

orlando_wrx
14th January 2011, 17:41
I didn't know electronics didn't contain oil, gold, silver, copper, etc?
We are in a transitional stage of stagflation right now. Either deflation or hyperinflation will be comming.

I'm sure exporting inflation has nothing to do with it. /sarc

skijake
14th January 2011, 17:47
Consider if everyone never gambled in the stock market or commodities and lived within their means and actually made a modest amount of interest off their savings accounts. Where would the Dollar be then, fiat currency or not, compared to other currencies around the world? Where would our economy be if those greedy bastards never sent their manufacturing plants to China and other countries around the world, not to mention a few million service sector jobs to India? Yes, I believe the US would still be considered the land of milk and honey with streets pave with Gold and a few with Copper just to make CCJOE happy.

Is this some kind of parallel universe thingy where only good prevails and bad is snuffed out with every cleansing burst of sunlight?
Yes the Banksters gambling {with our money, not theirs} put us in this position.
I'm still waiting for the sentences and justice to be meted out.
Let me know when you see it coming.

Cup-of-Ruin
14th January 2011, 20:23
Long time lurker here.

This seems to be a mostly bullish silver forum were people stack up for a long term investment. The reasons people are doing this seems to be a strong disbelief in paper currency and systems such as the Federal Reserve. There is also the accusations against JPM regarding silver manipulation. Lastly we have the demand for silver in industry and electrical equipment that would push the price up. While i agree with all of those points made i still feel a bit lost.

For some years silver have been steadily climbing its way up (this is perfectly normal if you consider the reasoning above) but the last months we have seen a steep spike in silver price. Why i ask myself. Why would silver not keep its steady climb up? Instead it skyrockets and now have (almost) flat lined.

Does this not look like a bubble? Does not a correction to around at least 25 bucks seem likely? What are your thoughts about this? I mean why have the price rose so steep? Usually when something like this happens and people cant explain it that means a bubble.

Please back up your statements with reasoning.

In 1950 there was 50 Billion Oz's of Silver in world reserves, now there is 1 Billion Oz's in world reserves and dropping fast with exponential demand for Silver in both industrial and investment form....Consider that there is a massive cover up of this huge Silver shortage, one would expect some suprising price 'discovery' shenanigans going on.

Fiat price of Silver at the moment is not as important as how many ounces one has, that is what is important, just getting as many ounces as you possibly can, like a 'war chest', I got my 'war chest', have you got yours?

Gino
14th January 2011, 20:55
In 1950 there was 50 Billion Oz's of Silver in world reserves, now there is 1 Billion Oz's in world reserves and dropping fast with exponential demand for Silver in both industrial and investment form....Consider that there is a massive cover up of this huge Silver shortage, one would expect some suprising price 'discovery' shenanigans going on.

Fiat price of Silver at the moment is not as important as how many ounces one has, that is what is important, just getting as many ounces as you possibly can, like a 'war chest', I got my 'war chest', have you got yours?

Dead right. The price of silver may go all over the place like a mad woman's breakfast (up like it has in the past three months or down like it did in 2008), but this has zero to do with silver fundamentals and everything to do with the fraud of the manipulators and the leverage of paper speculators. That the silver vigilantes are winning the war against the derivative traders shorting the market is testimony to the strength of the fundamentals for owning physical bullion.

Further, the fact that silver is consolidating now demonstrates there is no bubble. A bubble is exponential price growth to unrealistic levels. Given that the inflation adjusted high for silver is over US$440 dollars, silver has a long way to go before you can say a bubble is about to pop in the silver market.

You will notice that the difference between $20 and $28 is nothing compared to the difference between $440 and $28. A much better proposition buying this far from the historical high than closer to it.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7miRCLeFSJo

Listen up and take what you can get.

What is Truth?
14th January 2011, 21:16
Your right, all those commodities have flat lined and it's really a falling dollar and all other currencies around the world. Or maybe it's due to speculation, like how much would Silver be worth today if it were not for a couple billion ounces or more being taken out of the market place by speculators like "US"? Are those food commodities really increasing in value because of all these failing currencies or does the fact that some really bad weather causing reduced crops, coupled with massive speculators have anything to do with it? Is oil at $90 a barrel because of failing currencies or the fact that it is manipulated and a lot of speculators jumping into and out of that market?

Let's get real here, remove all the gamblers and leave commodities to find their true value and they will all take a serious tumble. Yes that includes Gold and Silver. What would the true value of either be if gamblers (investors) didn't own any of those commodities. The rise in commodities is primarily investor driven, not the value of world currencies.

.


Night after night I read about big bank manipulation of silver but I'm starting to come to the conclusion that speculators are really the ones who are calling the shots. As long as speculators feel they can make a profit they hold on to or buy more silver. As soon as they feel silver is getting to be a hot potato they dump it. What is written here night after night isn't typical of the true feeling of the silver speculators. Here you will find the hard-core silver stackers. Right or wrong they are into silver for the long term. The speculators couldn't care if they are into soya beans or silver.

Ardent Listener
14th January 2011, 21:39
Coincidence or not, silver is currently moving right in line with its 37 year seasonal chart. I was criticized by someone over at the new Reacent.org for having posted it a month or so back because it "might discourage new investors". Well what is more discouraging then to not have any historical reference to silver drops for this time of year?

Gino
15th January 2011, 02:42
Yes, that chart really says a lot, doesn't it. But it is very difficult to time your purchases to the dips, especially when you have to convert to a 3rd currency, but January looks like a good time to buy.

Here are some of the fundamental reasons for owning silver if you missed it. This video was posted in a couple of earlier threads, but well worth viewing if you are seeking reasons for owning silver.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IiarVvZguY

valerb
15th January 2011, 03:35
I didn't know electronics didn't contain oil, gold, silver, copper, etc?
We are in a transitional stage of stagflation right now. Either deflation or hyperinflation will be coming.

I'm sure exporting inflation has nothing to do with it. /sarc

They sure do, but in insignificant amounts, otherwise prices would be increasing instead of decreasing. Automation and continued advances in the Electronic world keeps the deflation machine rolling along in that arena. If we could compare a loaf of bread to a computer hard drive, it would be a larger loaf each year containing more calories per ounce and selling for less than the year before. We pay $2.50 (WAG) for a loaf of Wonder bread and three feet away is a store brand loaf of bread for $1.50. Go to a store like Aldi's and pay even less for most items. Just because we are able to pay $1.50 or $2.50 for a loaf of bread has nothing to do with the real world costs of bringing that loaf of bread to the market. So when the price of wheat triples, it will not triple the cost of a loaf. Wheat is a small fraction of the actual cost of producing that loaf of bread. It's the same with oil. Remember $1.00 a gallon for gas, in the US, not Europe and a barrel of oil cost $10. I'm still paying just under $3.00 a gallon for gas and the price is/was over $90 a barrel. We tend to look at commodities in real world terms as that is what we pay for in Gold and Silver. If the price increases ten fold then we have to pay ten times as much. It just doesn't work that way for finished good products on the open market. Actually it doesn't work that way for us either. Our Silver stamping plants and mints usually have a set fee they are adding to each ounce of Silver they produce. So as the costs of Silver has increased by a factor of seven plus in the past ten years, there costs have remained fairly close to what they were ten years ago. I can't say the same for Gold, but you get what you pay for and the demand is much greater for Gold than Silver or they are at least charging a hell of a lot more per ounce than ten years ago.

valerb
15th January 2011, 03:54
In 1950 there was 50 Billion Oz's of Silver in world reserves, now there is 1 Billion Oz's in world reserves and dropping fast with exponential demand for Silver in both industrial and investment form....Consider that there is a massive cover up of this huge Silver shortage, one would expect some suprising price 'discovery' shenanigans going on.

Fiat price of Silver at the moment is not as important as how many ounces one has, that is what is important, just getting as many ounces as you possibly can, like a 'war chest', I got my 'war chest', have you got yours?

I've had mine since 2003, but did get a little greedy and bought an extra 2,000 ounces in 2008. No intention of ever buying any more, but I can never say never, because that's what I said back in 2003. The dollar starts to collapse, I have to put it somewhere, I can't put it all in Swiss Francs. If Silver collapses again, well, I guess I'll have to take advantage of it one more time.

valerb
15th January 2011, 05:02
Dead right. The price of silver may go all over the place like a mad woman's breakfast (up like it has in the past three months or down like it did in 2008), but this has zero to do with silver fundamentals and everything to do with the fraud of the manipulators and the leverage of paper speculators. That the silver vigilantes are winning the war against the derivative traders shorting the market is testimony to the strength of the fundamentals for owning physical bullion.

Further, the fact that silver is consolidating now demonstrates there is no bubble. A bubble is exponential price growth to unrealistic levels. Given that the inflation adjusted high for silver is over US$440 dollars, silver has a long way to go before you can say a bubble is about to pop in the silver market.

You will notice that the difference between $20 and $28 is nothing compared to the difference between $440 and $28. A much better proposition buying this far from the historical high than closer to it.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7miRCLeFSJo

Listen up and take what you can get.

I sure can't argue with the logic of owning Silver as an investment, but I'd really like to know how anyone can say Silver should be worth $440 an ounce. Even using that tired old argument that the dollar has lost 98% of it's value over the past 100 years. Which is a ridiculous argument, since our wages have increased far more than the decrease in the dollars value in the past 100 years.

It seems to be a straight forward calculation to me. Silver was worth 55.6 cents per ounce in 1910. If the dollar has lost 98% of it's value since then, we simply multiply the price of Silver by a factor of 50, which would make Silver worth $27.80 per ounce. If the dollar had lost 99% of it's value, Silver would still only be worth $55.60 an ounce today. No one pays interest or dividends on Silver bullion, so how could it possibly be worth more than $27.80 due to the decreased value of the dollar? To justify Silver jumping from 55.6 cents per ounce to $440 per ounce due to inflation, the dollar would only be worth .12 cents compared to a 1910 Dollar and not 2 cents to the dollar. That doesn't sound like much of a difference, but it is huge. Now if someone has numbers to support hyper-inflation and the dollar losing something in the 99.7% range instead of 98%, I can buy Silver being worth $440 per ounce. But at 98%, Silver is still only worth $27.80 today.

valerb
15th January 2011, 05:39
Night after night I read about big bank manipulation of silver but I'm starting to come to the conclusion that speculators are really the ones who are calling the shots. As long as speculators feel they can make a profit they hold on to or buy more silver. As soon as they feel silver is getting to be a hot potato they dump it. What is written here night after night isn't typical of the true feeling of the silver speculators. Here you will find the hard-core silver stackers. Right or wrong they are into silver for the long term. The speculators couldn't care if they are into soya beans or silver.

Your dead on track. It's always been the long contract holders that jump into and out of the market driving the price up and down and not the Shorts as everyone likes to blame them. There is absolutely no doubt that the short contract holders take advantage of the situation when long contract holders start dumping their Silver, but are we any different. The Shorts take advantage of the Longs and we take advantage of the market collapse by buying all we can afford. We're pissed because we are playing in a paper world that dictates the value of our investments. All commodities are in a paper play ground, we just happen to invest in something that is not perishable and can be stored in volume at home or other safe places. Not many commodities fit that bill, especially in metal form. It's easy to hide a few hundred ounces of Gold and you have to be a lot more creative to hide 5,000 to 10,000 ounces of Silver. Try and hide an equivalent investment in Copper and you need a re-enforced bunker and cheaper metals are out of the question.

silverfish
15th January 2011, 05:52
Which is a ridiculous argument, since our wages have increased far more than the decrease in the dollars value in the past 100 years.



That was then, this is now (post-Globilization). Had any pay rises recently?

Ardent Listener
15th January 2011, 07:56
Yes, that chart really says a lot, doesn't it. But it is very difficult to time your purchases to the dips, especially when you have to convert to a 3rd currency, but January looks like a good time to buy.

Here are some of the fundamental reasons for owning silver if you missed it. This video was posted in a couple of earlier threads, but well worth viewing if you are seeking reasons for owning silver.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IiarVvZguY


Gino,

I didn't mean to imply that one should use the chart to time the market. I didn't. But what I am saying is that it may give some insight as to why silver is curently down and not totally unexpected or a big deal.

valerb
15th January 2011, 08:47
That was then, this is now (post-Globalization). Had any pay rises recently?

Actually I haven't, as my Social Security is frozen this year. On the other hand or I should say my younger wife has in fact received a pay raise every year and an annual bonus. This pre, post or any other kind of globalization has had absolutely no impact on her income at all. One of the benefits of a successful career, being old and on top of the corporate food chain versus being young and on the bottom. A harsh reality of the corporate world is, that when they start making cut-backs, they do not start at the top with those making the most, they start at the bottom with those making the least. At her corporation, they have never frozen or reduced anyones income. They have reduced the percentage of annual raises for 2011, down from 5% to 3% for hourly employees. With such wide spread pain on a global basis, it seems like everyone in impacted, but in reality a lot of industries have not been impacted at all or have had minimal impact, while others have been more successful. When a corporation fails, they did not lose all their business, but enough that they could no longer survive. Another corporation has to pickup the excess business. In some cases that is enough to keep them in business and in others it creates more business than they have ever had in the past. No matter how bad things become, there are always winners and losers. More losers than winners today, but there are always winners.

ccjoe
15th January 2011, 08:49
Your dead on track. It's always been the long contract holders that jump into and out of the market driving the price up and down and not the Shorts as everyone likes to blame them. There is absolutely no doubt that the short contract holders take advantage of the situation when long contract holders start dumping their Silver, but are we any different. The Shorts take advantage of the Longs and we take advantage of the market collapse by buying all we can afford. We're pissed because we are playing in a paper world that dictates the value of our investments. All commodities are in a paper play ground, we just happen to invest in something that is not perishable and can be stored in volume at home or other safe places. Not many commodities fit that bill, especially in metal form. It's easy to hide a few hundred ounces of Gold and you have to be a lot more creative to hide 5,000 to 10,000 ounces of Silver. Try and hide an equivalent investment in Copper and you need a re-enforced bunker and cheaper metals are out of the question.
My facility is reinforced concrete and the copper only takes up 3X3X 6 feet high.

AgSurfer
15th January 2011, 08:54
Wow, 3% gain is reduced? Here 3% was a good pay increase, but for the last 2 years many got no increase, and the justification was "well, no one got fired so be happy you at least have a paycheck." Eve 3% does not cover the increase in cost of living with everyday expenses. There will come a time very soon that everyone will have to cut back much more in standard of living as well as salary and forgo a lot of perks realized today. Default in US starts with internal debts, like social security, pensions, etc. When this happens we who own silver and have planned for this will more than make up for it.

valerb
15th January 2011, 09:09
My facility is reinforced concrete and the copper only takes up 3X3X 6 feet high.

It had better be reinforced, with ten tons of Copper spread out over an a whopping nine square feet. Talk about making sure your feet are not in the area when the fork lift sets that puppy down.

If you ever take a picture of that mother-load, you have my E-mail address, send me a copy.

Have you had any dreams yet where you unwrapped the pallet and discovered they shipped you Silver kilo bars by mistake???????

Holtz
15th January 2011, 10:17
I have been follow this thread now.

What i have gathered is:

General opinion is that short term silver can go up,down or flat line. Long term most people think it will go up.

Regarding the current spike we have in price:

General opinion is that we simply don't know the reason for it. No one seems to want to take up that specific subject and i can only conclude that this sudden rise is not natural and will have a correction phase. (witch most likely have have already started and will be going on for about 1-2 weeks.

My prediction is that silver will fall for 1-2 weeks to about 24-26 Bucks and then continue the stead climb/rate it has been for some 2-3 years now.

silverfish
15th January 2011, 10:46
At her corporation, they have never frozen or reduced anyones income.

Yes depends on the industry - some are fairly recession-proof (Banking (rolleyes). pharmaceuticals, insurance etc. The management levels do best as they get to choose who to sack or whose pay gets frozen or cut (clue: not theirs!). Fair enough - if you can't beat them, join them after all! Globalization has greatly affected manufacturing, IT, service industries though. Last bonus I had was about 2002 and no pay-rise for 3 years now. Not complaining though - as AGSurfer says, happy to still have a job and if it was a big deal to me it would be up to me to "prove" I am worth more by finding a better paid job. My payrises in Silver have been pretty good though :D

S1lverBullet
15th January 2011, 11:37
wow you guys have nothing to complain about. I am a poor 21 yr old college kid who is working 40 hours a week and putting every dime left over from his measly pathetic little paycheck into silver in hopes that one day I will be compensated for it. Just glad I have a job though and will have a degree in a couple months :) Hoping to be way way ahead of the game with the silver in a couple years. Unfortunately I can't say the same for the other students on campus here. Most will be in debt up to their eyeballs after college and when inflation and a new depression start to show up in our economy they will be totally screwed. Sad thing is none of them have the slightest idea of what is coming! Next time your complaining about a 3 percent pay raise think of the poor college kid making 15k a year that has NEVER gotten a pay raise. :(

valerb
15th January 2011, 12:25
Wow, 3% gain is reduced? Here 3% was a good pay increase, but for the last 2 years many got no increase, and the justification was "well, no one got fired so be happy you at least have a paycheck." Eve 3% does not cover the increase in cost of living with everyday expenses. There will come a time very soon that everyone will have to cut back much more in standard of living as well as salary and forgo a lot of perks realized today. Default in US starts with internal debts, like social security, pensions, etc. When this happens we who own silver and have planned for this will more than make up for it.


You really can't compare a pay raise with the cost of living expenses, as some peoples needs are far less than their income. So a 3% raise may more than cover extra expenses, especially high income employees who also happen to be debt free. I know they may be far and few between, but they do exist.

OK, I'll bite, so why is it that everyone will have to cut back on their standards of living and give up what perks? Do you believe the government is going to just discontinue Social Security and tell all these corporations that they no longer have to pay their retired employees anything. Sorry, were broke, so you are all on your own. The Dollar is not going to evaporate and if it did, it would just be replaced by another fiat currency. Unless Ft Knox is actually empty and whatever our gold stock pile in New York consists of is not there either, we are not broke. We are not going to default on anything. We may run our debts into the ground by inflating the dollar, but we can only do that if the other countries around the world go along with that plan. So we are spending money like crazy and so is the rest of the world and not allowing us to make any serious headway on the inflation front. We can't default on our debts and it would be an insane idea to even try it. The only way out is to basically put yourself in bankruptcy, by hyper-inflating your currency. Eventually you no longer owe anyone anything and then you start over, just like so many before us.

I don't know if owning Silver is going to help everyone. It depends on how much you own and how much debt your saddled with. I think it's only wishful thinking that someone who owns a few hundred ounces of Silver is going to come out of a financial mess like this smelling like a rose. Our Silver won't be worth anymore than Silver sold around the world. It may be selling for $5,000 an ounce here in the US, but if it's only selling for the equivalent of $30 in today's dollars. Five hundred ounces would only be worth $15,000. Better than the average person who doesn't own any Silver, but if that average person happens to own his house free and clear and you don't, that $15,000 isn't looking so good by comparison. So what will really happen to the price of Silver if the dollar goes into hyper-inflation? I have to assume the rest of the world will also be hit with a financial mess as well. Some worse than ours and others less. That doesn't sound like a market that will be driving Silver higher, but more than likely some kind of repeat of 2008.

AgSurfer
15th January 2011, 12:54
I guess that the main issue is if there is a correction, but the bull market is still continuing or if we really are in a bubble. I personally do not think we are in a bubble with precious metals yet. Even if the correction is low like Roger is saying, it does not change my opinion that it is not the bubble bursting.

orlando_wrx
15th January 2011, 13:36
Silver has gone too much and too fast and is due for a major correction, perhaps all the way down to or even below twenty an ounce.
There you have it, no bubble! Roger pimping a major correction is the only evidence I need! :p

Gino
15th January 2011, 17:14
I sure can't argue with the logic of owning Silver as an investment, but I'd really like to know how anyone can say Silver should be worth $440 an ounce. Even using that tired old argument that the dollar has lost 98% of it's value over the past 100 years. Which is a ridiculous argument, since our wages have increased far more than the decrease in the dollars value in the past 100 years.

It seems to be a straight forward calculation to me. Silver was worth 55.6 cents per ounce in 1910. If the dollar has lost 98% of it's value since then, we simply multiply the price of Silver by a factor of 50, which would make Silver worth $27.80 per ounce. If the dollar had lost 99% of it's value, Silver would still only be worth $55.60 an ounce today. No one pays interest or dividends on Silver bullion, so how could it possibly be worth more than $27.80 due to the decreased value of the dollar? To justify Silver jumping from 55.6 cents per ounce to $440 per ounce due to inflation, the dollar would only be worth .12 cents compared to a 1910 Dollar and not 2 cents to the dollar. That doesn't sound like much of a difference, but it is huge. Now if someone has numbers to support hyper-inflation and the dollar losing something in the 99.7% range instead of 98%, I can buy Silver being worth $440 per ounce. But at 98%, Silver is still only worth $27.80 today.

Sorry, but you mis-understood. It is the 1980 high, adjusted for inflation, that is over $440 and my point was that a bubble would be apparent if we were approaching that figure or over it. Hence, there is a long way to go.

Your price projection doesn't take into account depletion, rising demand or the impact of QE I, II or potentially III by the FED, nor do you consider the re-monetisation of Gold by the central banks and the new investment demand from China. So, while $440 is the inflation adjusted high, $27.80 is not a true or accurate valuation and if it gets back down to that long enough for me to buy some more, I will. If it goes below $25, I will buy even more and if it falls below $20, I will go large (for me).

Gino
15th January 2011, 17:31
I have been follow this thread now.

What i have gathered is:

General opinion is that short term silver can go up,down or flat line. Long term most people think it will go up.

Regarding the current spike we have in price:

General opinion is that we simply don't know the reason for it. No one seems to want to take up that specific subject and i can only conclude that this sudden rise is not natural and will have a correction phase. (witch most likely have have already started and will be going on for about 1-2 weeks.

My prediction is that silver will fall for 1-2 weeks to about 24-26 Bucks and then continue the stead climb/rate it has been for some 2-3 years now.

Well you have not been paying attention, then. Silver is consolidating above $28 since breaking above in November:

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag0060lnb.gif

Ardent gave you a chart of the past 37 years of price action in silver that says it is likely to continue to gain through February.

And I gave you a video on the fundamentals of silver and the reasons investment demand is taking off.

So, your "interpretation" (if it is not willful mis-information) is simply wrong and demonstrates an inability to comprehend that which is presented.

Gino
15th January 2011, 17:41
Ardent Listener:

Gino,

I didn't mean to imply that one should use the chart to time the market. I didn't. But what I am saying is that it may give some insight as to why silver is curently down and not totally unexpected or a big deal.


No worries, mate. I got your meaning, my point was exactly that. It is only an indication of the likely future trends, based on historical price action. And while, of course, history is no guarentee of the future (especially since 2008), it is still an interesting chart.

silverheartbone
16th January 2011, 06:36
Actually I haven't, as my Social Security is frozen this year. On the other hand or I should say my younger wife has in fact received a pay raise every year and an annual bonus.

Your younger wife?
I am truly jealous. http://forums.silverseek.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
How many do you have? http://forums.silverseek.com/images/icons/icon6.png

TomServo
16th January 2011, 08:24
It's silly to blame banks or speculators for our problems. Speaking from a U. S. -centric view, we as voters elect lawmakers who tell both groups what they can and can't do. Both groups operate under, to them, onerous and oppressive laws that won't let them do most of the things they'd LOVE to do.

The problem is the lawmakers. Almost, if not every one, of our Senators and Congressthings are millionaires at least, if not now, then after leaving office, for a whole heck of a lot less investment in time that any banker or speculator. And we Americans keep electing the same corrupt bastards again and again, giving us an elected Nobility who don't even have to follow the laws they pass (Obamacare, Social Security, traffic laws for God's sake).

Take Fannie Mae and the mortgage crash. Citibank? No...if Citibank didn't make those bad loans to people who couldn't pay it back, then the next bank in line would. If they wouldn't make the loans, it'd keep passing down until Joe's Bank Of Podunkville would have. As long as a law is in place to make money, someone will. Don't like it? Change the law. Every single law can be changed, even our Constitution, but not by a politician who wants to be re-elected.

The blame for speculators, bankers, et. al., is YOUR FAULT. Because YOUR Congressman is great, it's those OTHER bastards, right? Right....

silverheartbone
16th January 2011, 08:41
The problem is the lawmakers. Almost, if not every one, of our Senators and Congressthings are millionaires at least, if not now, then after leaving office, for a whole heck of a lot less investment in time that any banker or speculator. And we Americans keep electing the same corrupt bastards again and again, giving us an elected Nobility who don't even have to follow the laws they pass (Obamacare, Social Security, traffic laws for God's sake).

http://www.scifi-toyz.com/guillotine.jpg

S1lverBullet
16th January 2011, 09:08
ha.... forget that gullotine we don't want another French revolution here in the states. "Let them eat cake" though right?

TomServo
17th January 2011, 04:55
guillotine.jpg

Every lefty I talk to for more than 30 seconds wants ME on that thing.

S1lverBullet
17th January 2011, 07:46
ha well in France with them in charge in the late 1700s they put over 200,000 of their buddies on that thing.

orlando_wrx
17th January 2011, 09:10
It's silly to blame banks or speculators for our problems....we as voters elect lawmakers who tell both groups what they can and can't do...

Joking? Or do you believe that .gov calls the shots? Money calls the shots, always has...most likely always will.

valerb
17th January 2011, 17:04
Your younger wife?
I am truly jealous. http://forums.silverseek.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
How many do you have? http://forums.silverseek.com/images/icons/icon6.png

Certainly none my age. As to how many is like asking someone how much Silver he holds!!!!

valerb
17th January 2011, 18:03
Sorry, but you mis-understood. It is the 1980 high, adjusted for inflation, that is over $440 and my point was that a bubble would be apparent if we were approaching that figure or over it.

I don't keep track of these inflation adjusted items, as the prices for everything are what they are. I still say your $440 per ounce of Silver is out in left field, even using the one time pop to $50 due to manipulation of the market. We would have had to have 780% inflation since 1980 to reach $440. Here are some other inflation numbers for Gold an Silver, which are far more realistic and based on the 1980 highs.


The all-time inflation adjusted price of gold ($850/oz, 1980) is $2250/oz.
It's at $1360 right now -- 65% off the all-time high.

The all-time inflation adjusted price of silver ($50/oz, 1980) is $130/oz.
It's at $28 right now -- 365% off the all-time high.

Now from $50 to $130 in inflation terms is only 160% inflation, not 780%.

Minimum wage was $3.10 an hour in 1980 and it was $7.25 in 2009, up 134% and there was no bubble in the minimum wage.

I can't argue with the logic of Silver being in a bubble at $440, without hyper-inflation.

If we really had 780% inflation over the past 30 years, everything would costs far more than it does and we would be earning far more as well. Since neither the costs of items nor our wages have not increased 780%, how can anyone claim such an outrageous figure. You don't even need to use a calculator to know that prices are not 780% higher than 30 years ago. Now you might be able to find the price of gas at $8 a gallon in some isolated locations in Europe, but you sure couldn't buy a gallon of gas for $1 in 1980 over there either.

Gino
18th January 2011, 10:55
I don't keep track of these inflation adjusted items, as the prices for everything are what they are. I still say your $440 per ounce of Silver is out in left field, even using the one time pop to $50 due to manipulation of the market. We would have had to have 780% inflation since 1980 to reach $440. Here are some other inflation numbers for Gold an Silver, which are far more realistic and based on the 1980 highs.


The all-time inflation adjusted price of gold ($850/oz, 1980) is $2250/oz.
It's at $1360 right now -- 65% off the all-time high.

The all-time inflation adjusted price of silver ($50/oz, 1980) is $130/oz.
It's at $28 right now -- 365% off the all-time high.

Now from $50 to $130 in inflation terms is only 160% inflation, not 780%.

Minimum wage was $3.10 an hour in 1980 and it was $7.25 in 2009, up 134% and there was no bubble in the minimum wage.

I can't argue with the logic of Silver being in a bubble at $440, without hyper-inflation.

If we really had 780% inflation over the past 30 years, everything would costs far more than it does and we would be earning far more as well. Since neither the costs of items nor our wages have not increased 780%, how can anyone claim such an outrageous figure. You don't even need to use a calculator to know that prices are not 780% higher than 30 years ago. Now you might be able to find the price of gas at $8 a gallon in some isolated locations in Europe, but you sure couldn't buy a gallon of gas for $1 in 1980 over there either.

There's lies, damn lies and then there's statistics.

I admit I have lost my reference to the $442 figure for the inflation adjusted silver high of $50 in 1980, however, a little lateral thinking would point one to the source of the inflation data used to calculate such a figure, John William's Shadowstats (http://www.shadowstats.com/).

Here's an inflation calculator that has an option to use the ShadowStats inflation data:
http://www.halfhill.com/inflation.html (http://www.halfhill.com/inflation.html)

See attachment.

It's unfortunate that it only includes the data up to 2009, however, even then $50 in 1980 was equivalent to $415.28 in 2009. Project that another year and a bit and, well $442 ain't wrong.

As to why John Williams data is different from the local Ministry of Truth, I would suggest a visit to his web site for the interested reader. http://www.shadowstats.com/

Then of course there is also http://dollardaze.org/ (http://dollardaze.org/) where you will see this handy picture, where one can visualise the increase in the money supply since 1980.
http://dollardaze.org/blog/pages/00023/SmallGlobalMoneySupply2.png

So, I standby what I said as completely reasonable, based on the shadowstats inflation figures. There is no bubble and the price of silver has a long way to go to catch up to all the money printing that has occured. And that's before the impacts of resource depletion, etc are taken into consideration.

maplesilverbug
18th January 2011, 21:05
Minimum wage was $3.10 an hour in 1980 and it was $7.25 in 2009, up 134% and there was no bubble in the minimum wage.

Except that, according to many inflation calcs, 2009 minimum wage should have been ~$8.10/hr (or +11.5% HIGHER) to simply keep pace with inflation.

Of course there was no min. wage bubble! REAL wages have not rises in YEARS!
That doesn't mean the things we buy stop getting more and more expensive.

valerb
19th January 2011, 02:07
Except that, according to many inflation calcs, 2009 minimum wage should have been ~$8.10/hr (or +11.5% HIGHER) to simply keep pace with inflation.

Of course there was no min. wage bubble! REAL wages have not rises in YEARS!
That doesn't mean the things we buy stop getting more and more expensive.

No doubt minimum wages should have gone up a bit more.

Maple, I'm not sure what you are trying to say about wage increases. They have not risen with inflation. They have not risen faster than inflation or they have not risen at all.

It all depends on your status in the work force. If you were flipping burgers in 1980 and your still flipping them today, your probably still making minimum wages. If you've worked hard on the job and proved your worth to your employer, you've probably been promoted at least once if not several times. That goes for college graduates and non-college graduates alike.

valerb
19th January 2011, 02:50
There's lies, damn lies and then there's statistics.

I admit I have lost my reference to the $442 figure for the inflation adjusted silver high of $50 in 1980, however, a little lateral thinking would point one to the source of the inflation data used to calculate such a figure, John William's Shadowstats (http://www.shadowstats.com/).

Here's an inflation calculator that has an option to use the ShadowStats inflation data:
http://www.halfhill.com/inflation.html (http://www.halfhill.com/inflation.html)

See attachment.

It's unfortunate that it only includes the data up to 2009, however, even then $50 in 1980 was equivalent to $415.28 in 2009. Project that another year and a bit and, well $442 ain't wrong.

As to why John Williams data is different from the local Ministry of Truth, I would suggest a visit to his web site for the interested reader. http://www.shadowstats.com/

Then of course there is also http://dollardaze.org/ (http://dollardaze.org/) where you will see this handy picture, where one can visualise the increase in the money supply since 1980.
http://dollardaze.org/blog/pages/00023/SmallGlobalMoneySupply2.png

So, I standby what I said as completely reasonable, based on the shadowstats inflation figures. There is no bubble and the price of silver has a long way to go to catch up to all the money printing that has occurred. And that's before the impacts of resource depletion, etc are taken into consideration.

I don't care what shadow this or shadow that has to say about anything, I just want someone to show me real world numbers that proves inflation has gone up 780% in the US since 1980.

I couldn't give two cents for the info about how many dollars have been printed as a measure of inflation. That's only hypothetical inflation. True inflation is what I paid then and what I pay today. Assuming my wages have not increased at all, which isn't the case. Since our wages have also increased, the only inflation is that which is above what our wages have not kept up with. Which is not that much.

Are you aware of anything that has increased 780% since 1980, let alone everything in general that would justify that kind of inflation average. Keep in mind that it's an average and there are many things that have decreased in price over the last 30 years, in spite of our wage increases. Everyone seems to forget about the years when we had inflation and everyone was getting 7% - 10% raises or more. In a few isolated areas in the country, housing was about the only item that could come near 780%.

This inflation crap is about as reliable as the information fed to us about Silver being depleted ten years ago. In case anyone hasn't been paying attention, we still haven't run out. Which should have been impossible according to all the statistics from our Analysts.

When Silver runs out, we'll all know about it. When inflation hits 780%, we won't need some shadow web site to tell us about it. We'll all be receiving large cost of living increases or most of us will be in deep trouble, rather we have a job or not.

Gino
19th January 2011, 05:42
Are you aware of anything that has increased 780% since 1980, let alone everything in general that would justify that kind of inflation average.

You mean beyond the amount of money that has been created and the various economic bubbles that have formed and busted in that time? Like a loaf of bread or a pair of shoes or somesuch? No, I can't put my finger on anything.

I did have a look around and a lot of things like debt levels and income gaps, have increased 4 fold since 1980, but as for your basic items, I don't know of any.

But I think we are talking about different definitions of infliation. You seem to be talking about consumer prices and I'm talking about the volume of money that has been created, the root cause of many of the ills of the world today.

For instance, how does one really compare the cost of a pair of shoes from 1980, that probably would have been made in the USA by adults paid an adult wage, to shoes made en mass in China by 8 year olds chained to sewing machines? If the cost of components had increased, it would have been more that offset by the slave labour and volumes enforced by the Communist Politburo for the greater glory of China.

The CPI is manipulated and there are many reasons the price of goods have not yet caught up with the inflation in the money supply, but they will. As soon as there is less stuff being produced (peak everything) there will be all that money created (past, present and future), chasing fewer goods and that's higher consumer prices. I believe we are starting to see that happening now, actually, and inflation is about to take off.

On top of that, we have the trickle-down economy being inverted as the hot money from the printing machines is not making it past the trading desks of the major banks, as they speculate on commodity prices. Which raises the input costs of everything.

Rising input costs, more cash chasing fewer goods. Sounds like a formula for social collapse.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rd_UBSIaOtw

crashjp
19th January 2011, 09:41
For me it all comes down to standerd of liveing has it gotten better or worse and for me it has become much worse I used to be able to afford to drive a new car and get it paid for In 4 years, now they have gone to 6 years to get it paid for and I wouldn't dare try when you add the car payment with the insureance it is out of my reach though I have a much better job than what I had in 1980 if you were to compare the job I have now to what my same job would paid in 1980 to the real job that I did have in 1980, when you sort it all out I'm on the loseing end big time here is an example some of y'all may remeber, there used to be billboards along our nations highways that said drive. Big trucks make big bucks, you don't see those signs anymore because it isn't true anymore.

maplesilverbug
19th January 2011, 10:05
No doubt minimum wages should have gone up a bit more.

Maple, I'm not sure what you are trying to say about wage increases. They have not risen with inflation. They have not risen faster than inflation or they have not risen at all.

It all depends on your status in the work force. If you were flipping burgers in 1980 and your still flipping them today, your probably still making minimum wages. If you've worked hard on the job and proved your worth to your employer, you've probably been promoted at least once if not several times. That goes for college graduates and non-college graduates alike.

You also posted:


If we really had 780% inflation over the past 30 years, everything would costs far more than it does and we would be earning far more as well. Since neither the costs of items nor our wages have not increased 780%, how can anyone claim such an outrageous figure. You don't even need to use a calculator to know that prices are not 780% higher than 30 years ago. Now you might be able to find the price of gas at $8 a gallon in some isolated locations in Europe, but you sure couldn't buy a gallon of gas for $1 in 1980 over there either.


Everything DOES cost far more than it does (and did 30 years ago)!

Yes, there are things which have benifited from technology and improvements in manufacturing which have allowed to keep costs down (eg. McDonalds). But the MAIN reason things do no cost 780% more than they did 30 years is...CHINA et al! N.America has EXPORTED it's inflation over probably the last 50 years, but surely the last 30. Consumer goods may not be 780% more costly, but what about services and the similar? How much did a college education cost 30 years ago? How much is tuition and books today? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:InflationTuitionMedicalGeneral1978to2008.png)

As well, your example of oil/gasoline prices is moot because of OPEC.

And please, "If you've worked hard on the job and proved your worth to your employer, you've probably been promoted at least once if not several times." is the outlandish part! The salaries of Wall Street criminals and traders far, far outstrip that of a top surgeon -- a person whose skill, knowledge, and talents SAVES LIVES. WS gets the top rung for lying, cheating, and stealing???
"Work hard" is a complete falacy designed to keep the dying middle-class chasing a just as false dream.

orlando_wrx
19th January 2011, 11:00
Minimum wage was $1/hr in 1960. to keep up with inflation, those working for minimum wage should be paid nearly $20/hr today. Inflation/ cost of living increases (raises to "keep up with inflation") are another means of confusing the masses with numbers while stealing the value of the peoples labor away from them, much like removing the precious metal from their coins but in a roundabout way where it's taken before you're even paid. In 50 short years, the value of an americans labor has been cut more than 50%.

crashjp
19th January 2011, 11:19
YEA!!!, what orlando said. Lol

valerb
19th January 2011, 12:26
"Work hard" is a complete fallacy designed to keep the dying middle-class chasing a just as false dream.

I'm sorry to piss in your oatmeal, but my wifes income has increase by over 2000% since 1980. Are you that naive to believe that she is the one exception. She worked as a bookkeeper for a couple decades making next to nothing. Went to night school and got an associates degree in Accounting. Took the CPA exam and passed it. Something you could still do back in those days. She no more than passed the exam and I was transferred to Atlanta. She came with me and her first job was as a Senior Accountant. Six months later they promoted her to corporate controller. Being at the right place at the right time sure helped, but also doing the job when others around her were floundering also helped. Eight years later they sold that chain of nursing homes and all to the top management received a two year salary bonus. They didn't go out of business, they had already bought another group of nursing homes.

So just where do you think all the people in management come from? Do you think they simply hire them straight out of college? Not hardly, most work their way up the ranks. Sure there are exceptions, where you need a specialized degree to even be considered. You can't work your way into a Md's position without the degree, but you can work your way into an engineering position without a degree. Most supervisors come from the rank and file and those that shine in those positions go on to higher paying positions. You obviously do not have much experience in the business world or you would already know that.

valerb
19th January 2011, 12:43
Minimum wage was $1/hr in 1960. to keep up with inflation, those working for minimum wage should be paid nearly $20/hr today. Inflation/ cost of living increases (raises to "keep up with inflation") are another means of confusing the masses with numbers while stealing the value of the peoples labor away from them, much like removing the precious metal from their coins but in a roundabout way where it's taken before you're even paid. In 50 short years, the value of an americans labor has been cut more than 50%.

That's a load of BS and it's obvious that you were not around making a living back in 1960 or you would know better. If you are not living better today than in 1960, you've had health problems, made some bad choices or your just a plain old screwup. You can't blame the rest of the world for your staying at the bottom of the pay scale.

So we have another one who seems to believe inflation has not gone up by 780% but a whopping 2000% since 1960. If people were having a hard time living on a dollar an hour in 1960, how in the hell could they possible survive on $8 an hour today? Show me anything that costs 20 times more today than in 1960. By the way, people living off $1 an hour in 1960 were living in poverty and they are not doing much better today at $8 an hour.

Is anyone out there that was making a living in 1960? I don't know where you people come up with all this non-sense. This inflation stuff is sounding more like Bones version of world war II.

orlando_wrx
19th January 2011, 13:32
You're confusing price inflation with inflation (monetary). Prices of end products realize savings in increases in manufacturing efficiency, savings of labor costs (by stalling pay increases and not increasing labors pay to keep up with inflation and outsourcing to cheaper labor pools), and taxpayer supplements to the corporations. Do those savings that companies realize get passed on to their labor force and hence distributed back into the economy efficiently? Not a chance.

Anyway, without going on and on. An average car in 1960 was around $2500, today that price is around $30k.This is 1200% price inflation (with the manufacturing/labor/taxpayer supplements savings already merged into the price). I'm not complaining for my own good, as I have a good job in telecom making $30/hr, pension, 401k, 3 weeks paid vacation plus 8 personal paid days off, plus sick time (I have it real good compared to 50-60% or more of americans), I've lived well below what people these days consider to be within their means and have my monthly expenses trimmed to around $1200/month (1/4 of my pre-tax income)...I'm complaining for all the other people who don't even know they're being sold down the river. It's real easy for people who have done well in their lives to blame the less fortunate for their standard of living, I'm simply pointing out that there is more to the story than "work hard and you can have everything you want." Our economy is a ponzi, and the wealth trickles up (not down and not circulated). For most it's an uphill battle that will never be won. For those of us who've been blessed with opportunities, we can do well for ourselves, but our little world doesn't apply to everyone.

Now, depending on whose inflation numbers you believe, average annual inflation can be reported anywhere from 4-8+%. If you compromise and take a median 6% annual inflation rate compunded over 50 years that is well into the 1800% range from then till now.

valerb
20th January 2011, 05:28
You're confusing price inflation with inflation (monetary). Prices of end products realize savings in increases in manufacturing efficiency, savings of labor costs (by stalling pay increases and not increasing labors pay to keep up with inflation and outsourcing to cheaper labor pools), and taxpayer supplements to the corporations. Do those savings that companies realize get passed on to their labor force and hence distributed back into the economy efficiently? Not a chance.

That's why we should have elected the little general, who saw all of this crap coming down the pipe. He stood on his soap box and peeked over the top of the podium and warned us over and over again and we didn't listen.

Anyway, without going on and on. An average car in 1960 was around $2500, today that price is around $30k.

Actually you could buy a car for under $2,000 in 1960 and for under $12,000 today and there is no comparison between the two. When you looked under the hood of a car made in 1960, it was all engine with very few external parts. I don't even know if they came with safety belts back then. I owned a 1959 Ford that didn't have seat belts. Now they come with a ton of environmental parts and safety features never dreamed of in 1960. Seat belts, front and side airbags, crumple zones. Windshield wiper were vacuum operated back then and were not all that reliable. Now we have electric wiper that have several settings plus they come with cleaning fluid. Hazard warning lights. Tires you can drive on snow with instead of mounting snow tires for the winter and they last much longer. In that 1960 car, you could change your own spark plugs and you "had" to on a regular basis. I changed mine for the first time with a 100,000 mile tune up. So we are really talking about apples and oranges when it comes to automobiles and the price is only in the 600% range not 1,200%. For example, I bought a brand new 1966 Barracuda automatic fully loaded for $3,000. Not exactly your average priced car by any means and that was in 1966, not 1960.


This is 1200% price inflation (with the manufacturing/labor/taxpayer supplements savings already merged into the price). I'm not complaining for my own good, as I have a good job in telecom making $30/hr, pension, 401k, 3 weeks paid vacation plus 8 personal paid days off, plus sick time (I have it real good compared to 50-60% or more of Americans), I've lived well below what people these days consider to be within their means and have my monthly expenses trimmed to around $1200/month (1/4 of my pre-tax income)...I'm complaining for all the other people who don't even know they're being sold down the river. It's real easy for people who have done well in their lives to blame the less fortunate for their standard of living, I'm simply pointing out that there is more to the story than "work hard and you can have everything you want." Our economy is a ponzi, and the wealth trickles up (not down and not circulated). For most it's an uphill battle that will never be won. For those of us who've been blessed with opportunities, we can do well for ourselves, but our little world doesn't apply to everyone.

And it shouldn't or we would all be living the same life style as in a communist society. Give everyone the same pay and benefits and there is no incentive to do anything with your life. And your right about Regan's piss on the little guy slogan. I mean trickle down economy. Short of a communist society, we are always going to have people on the bottom and people on top of the pile. The good part is that the bottom of the pile has far fewer people in it than 100 years ago. Back then you were either well off or you were basically poor, with a small middle class. Today, the majority are in the middle class range. Many of them feel they are due a better life style for one reason or another, but life is what it is. Like you, many of us have lived well within our income and are able to withstand hard times. However the vast majority have not and it doesn't seem to matter how much money they were making, many still ended up losing everything. I see the same attitude in many of our members. It's all one sided and nothing can go wrong. Silver can't tumble and their savings along with it, it just can't happen. The reality of life is that it can drop back down to single digits or the Government can step in and confiscate all of our Silver. Now the talk is getting louder again for the FEDS to confiscate all of our pension and 401K plans for our own good and dump it all into another ponzi scheme, called treasury notes

Now, depending on whose inflation numbers you believe, average annual inflation can be reported anywhere from 4-8+%. If you compromise and take a median 6% annual inflation rate compunded over 50 years that is well into the 1800% range from then till now.

I don't believe any of them, I only believe what I see in reality. In an earlier post I stated a loaf of bread cost $2.50 for Wonder Bread and $1.50 for store brand. Well I was just guessing as I really don't pay that much attention as we don't eat much bread. I know far more about the cost of ice cream than bread. But getting to the point I was making regarding bread. I stopped off at a Wal-mart today just to see what a loaf did actually cost. To my amazement, it was only $1 and Sunbeam was something like $2.19 a loaf. Now that is a true test of inflation, something that hasn't changed in decades, except the price. I go back to the 40's and 50's when I was growing up and I know what it's like to be poor. If you look at my Social Security records, it shows wages earned starting in 1954 when I was only nine years old and I paid into that system every year after that. It was simply a matter of getting out there and hustling to make a buck or do without. I chose to enjoy life better than my friends as very few of them ever worked a day in their lives until they got out of high school. By the 60's, I was raising my own children and they were living a better life style than I did and my grandchildren are living a far better life style than my children. Now I don't want to complain, but the most sophisticated piece of equipment I owned was a transistor radio and that was pretty cool back in the 50's. Now my grandchildren are walking around with a telephone that doesn't have to be plugged into the wall and no problems dealing with a party line. (for the younger crowd, that was when multiple homes shared the same telephone number) It contains hundreds of songs in unbelievable quality. It functions as a camera and takes pictures in high definition "color". Can you imagine photographs in actual color? It also is a movie camera in high definition and with sound. I remember my 8 millimeter camera with no sound and the quality left a little to be desired. Then to beat all odds, it actually functions as a guide with it's built in GPS system. Did I forget to mention it connects to this thing called a world wide web, were you can do all kinds of crazy things, like find out how much Silver is selling for this very minute and send instant messages to your friends that are on vacation in Europe. Yep, life is really getting worse by the decade and the price of everything is just becoming cost prohibitive. By the way, has anyone happened to notice people living in the slums walking around with the portable talking devices. I find that hard to believe since their lives have sunken so far into the depths of hell, with this run away inflation.


......................

ccjoe
20th January 2011, 05:47
......................

Orlando--WARNING==Don't piss off Val!:)
You thought I was paranoid:)?
JK Just Kidding Val--Joe tiptoing away so as NOT to piss off Val:)

valerb
20th January 2011, 08:21
Orlando--WARNING==Don't piss off Val!:)
You thought I was paranoid:)?
JK Just Kidding Val--Joe tiptoing away so as NOT to piss off Val:)

I thought that was a very mild response on my part. Just tying to bring reality in play here, with real numbers and not someones guesstimations. You know Joe, as a fellow old timer yourself, living through an experience is far more eye opening than reading about it. History has a way of being distorted to fit someones view of it.

In August of 1964, we were all called out to the parade grounds for what!!! Our commanding general was reading an official military document to the troops. The day before, our nation had been attacked by the country of North Vietnam and that congress had declared war on that nation. Talk about a lot of "Oh ****, were screwed"

A large percentage of our Sargent's and warrant officers were in WWII and of course we all heard the stories about how ounce you were in, you were in for the duration of the war. Even though they continued to send troops home for discharge, we were all wondering if that would come to a halt and would it come before we got out. For me, it was a long eight months. Paranoid, you bet. I would have never seen combat with my job specialty, but being stuck in the Army for an indefinite period of time was not something I wanted to experience.

silverheartbone
20th January 2011, 08:30
In August of 1964, we were all called out to the parade grounds for what!!! Our commanding general was reading an official military document to the troops. The day before, our nation had been attacked by the country of North Vietnam and that congress had declared war on that nation. Talk about a lot of "Oh ****, were screwed"

You know that those (Rothschild) generals lied to you all that hot day so very long ago.

There has been no congressional (lawful) declaration of war since 1941.

orlando_wrx
20th January 2011, 09:25
The gulf of tonkin never happened.