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mizou
12th January 2011, 17:44
Biggest piece of garbage I've ever read !!

Watch Out for the Silver Bubble - by Colin Peterson (Middle name ROGER??? :p )

I get an alarming number of questions and comments about precious metals, especially silver. I can remember the same level of interest in oil in 2008, or real estate in 2006. [Of course, no one is interested in oil now, because it is not "going up".]

You hear a lot about the demand picture for silver (specifically investment demand), but one thing you don't hear very much about is the supply of silver. How much is available, and at what price?

Silver is a commodity. Like any commodity, producers interpret a rising price as a signal to increase production.

I took a look at a number of investor presentations from silver mining companies. Here is one from Pan American Silver (PAAS).

The massive margin between the spot price and the cash mining cost is going to cause a huge increase in supply over the next few years. Pan American Silver projects that it can raise production from ~20 million ounces to 45 million by 2014. (In the entire year 2010, the U.S. Mint minted and sold under 40 million ounces of silver.)

It remains to be seen what will happen to demand for silver, but we know that supply is going to increase substantially.

About the author: Colin Peterson
Colin Peterson is a management consultant with experience in a variety of industries including real estate development and investment. Mr. Peterson writes Credit Bubble Stocks, where his analysis focuses on finding and selling shares of overvalued companies whose collapse may be imminent.

mizou
12th January 2011, 17:45
Here is the link to the original article along with all the comments
http://seekingalpha.com/article/246125-watch-out-for-the-silver-bubble

InsiderSchneider
13th January 2011, 09:08
You 100% sure we may not be in a bubble? To an absolute degree? The last estate auction I was at, there were Amish there buying up silver coins like they were hotcakes.

Doesn't this rank up there with "When shoeshine boys are giving investment advice, it's time to get out"?

I am a silver bull, but one has to think, even Amish buying up silver?

What is Truth?
13th January 2011, 09:30
You 100% sure we may not be in a bubble? To an absolute degree? The last estate auction I was at, there were Amish there buying up silver coins like they were hotcakes.

Doesn't this rank up there with "When shoeshine boys are giving investment advice, it's time to get out"?

I am a silver bull, but one has to think, even Amish buying up silver?

What do you mean, even Amish? The Amish live a basic lifestyle. What is more basic than physical silver? Now if you told me they were buying up future contracts then maybe I could see your point.

maplesilverbug
13th January 2011, 10:01
I am a silver bull, but one has to think, even Amish buying up silver?

Ha! Last year I did some actual research into this (contacted a big wig Amish dude).

Here's the thread link: http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?11658-The-Amish-are-Coming!-The-Amish-are-Coming!&highlight=amish (http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?11658-The-Amish-are-Coming!-The-Amish-are-Coming!&highlight=amish)

InsiderSchneider
13th January 2011, 11:30
What do you mean, even Amish? The Amish live a basic lifestyle. What is more basic than physical silver? Now if you told me they were buying up future contracts then maybe I could see your point.

I understand the Amish lifestyle, there are plenty of them that live in my area. But I have been buying silver and gold for years at estate auctions in my area. I don't ever recall seeing them participate in buying anything other than tools, farming equipment. Everything I have seen them buy is practical and useful for the way they live, not a material possession. They were not buying precious metals.

What I am saying is, apparently even they have heard all the buzz from the "outside" world, and are getting in on the action.

shall
13th January 2011, 11:51
You 100% sure we may not be in a bubble? To an absolute degree? The last estate auction I was at, there were Amish there buying up silver coins like they were hotcakes.

Doesn't this rank up there with "When shoeshine boys are giving investment advice, it's time to get out"?

I am a silver bull, but one has to think, even Amish buying up silver?


do you have any personal acquaintances who have bought physical silver?
I don't, other than my father who I talked into it

krispy
13th January 2011, 11:52
haha, I give a **** what the amish are doing, or if there can be an increase in supply from PAAS. what difference does any of that make if the USD fails? if the economy, or our greed driven, consumptive way of life, in fact, turns out to be unsustainable?

supply, demand, bubbles? my silver is an insurance policy, not the next hot investment

MikeJ
13th January 2011, 12:25
Another idiot writing an article about a subject he knows nothing about. We keep hearing of these so called bubbles, but nothing ever happens and will not for years to come. Keep buying and ignore the disinformation.

main1event
13th January 2011, 12:26
People think they have an idea what a bubble is, when they have no basis in fact. How many of your neighbors are stocking up on Silver and Gold? When 50% of them are, and telling you where their favorite places to buy gold are, then you can come to me and tell me that Silver is in a bubble. How many new coin and silver shops are opening up in your area to sell Silver? The truth is that Silver is extremely undervalued there's really no money to be made in Silver. Most silver mined is still a byproduct of other metals even at todays prices. If Silver was so damn expensive and so profitable to mine you'd see more mining companies popping up to provide Silver. During the last gold rush, Gold was so valued that people picked up and moved west to try to find their fortune. Even with Gold at $1400.00 an ounce I havent heard talk of people picking up and moving to Alaska.

Sure more supply is going to be coming to on in the next few years, but its never as much as people expect. Did this article talk about the increased demand for Silver, Did it talk about the dollar value of Silver? That is to say that the dollar could decrease in value causing the metals price to head higher? Oil is at $90.00 a barrel from $70.00 just a couple of months ago. Did demand suddenly increase to warrant a 20% rise? No, but the dollar has fallen since that time.

Honestly, the more articles I see like this the more I know Silver has a long way to run before there is a bubble. During the height of the Real Estate Boom there were only 2 or 3 people talking about a Real Estate Bubble. Nearly everyone said that Real Estate was the best possible investment. Real Estate was in a bubble for nearly 5 years before it popped. Which goes to show that even when you identify a bubble it can get bigger and stay up longer than many people realize.

skijake
13th January 2011, 12:27
do you have any personal acquaintances who have bought physical silver?
I don't, other than my father who I talked into it

I know a couple of people too {buyers} but no where remotely close to a mania.
I've heard of a few people selling at these "extremely high" prices.
Sounds like a bubble to me.
http://www.forgottentreasurez.com/catalog/tiny%20bubbles_thumb.jpg
Wherz da bubbles?

shall
13th January 2011, 12:37
as for actual bubbles, take the total number of Americans who owned Nasdaq tech stocks 10 years ago
then take 10% of that number
the number that you have is still much much larger than the total number of Americans who own physical bullion
it's my opinion that the people who always talk about a silver bubble never use perspective and always rely on anecdotal crap like gold vending machines

silverheartbone
13th January 2011, 13:18
You 100% sure we may not be in a bubble? To an absolute degree? The last estate auction I was at, there were Amish there buying up silver coins like they were hotcakes.

Doesn't this rank up there with "When shoeshine boys are giving investment advice, it's time to get out"?

I am a silver bull, but one has to think, even Amish buying up silver?

IMO, the Amish buying silver is the most bullish signal that we could possibly see.
Ready for the train to pick up speed?

What is Truth?
13th January 2011, 14:35
as for actual bubbles, take the total number of Americans who owned Nasdaq tech stocks 10 years ago
then take 10% of that number
the number that you have is still much much larger than the total number of Americans who own physical bullion
it's my opinion that the people who always talk about a silver bubble never use perspective and always rely on anecdotal crap like gold vending machines

Yes, but physical bullion isn't what spot price is really based on. So paper silver could be in a bubble without a lot of people actually owning physical bullion.