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maplesilverbug
31st December 2010, 03:11
The chart from davincij15's video:
(not HIS chart, just his topic!)

http://www.bullionspotprice.com/widget/images/silverBubble.jpg


First thing -- time line is (estimating) from 01/2003 to current, 7 years.

Second -- according to the bubble chart, silver will hit $50 by the end of 2011; just into 2013 silver will be priced in "despair" at LESS than 2003 $5/oz levels (BUY! BUY! BUY!); by the start of 2014 silver will be rising to $15/oz again.

HERE'S THE PLAN!

2011 -- sell all your silver
2013 -- buy all the silver you can

For every ounce you sell in 2011 you can buy 15 in 2013...according to this bubble chart.

For everyone who bought silver @ $15 in 2009, follow this plan and you'll have increased you silver holdings TEN FOLD by the year 2014 (that's 5 years).
Or, for the conservatives, just hold what ya got and ride the bubble into...wealth preservation.

Or this chart might just be total crap.
You can superimpose anything and make it fit!
According to the 'bubble line', '08 silver was the bubble!
People making **** up just to make a pay cheque (notice I didn't use the word 'earn'?).

p.s. -- no mention of the gold-silver ratio. At the 'despair' price level gold might be $150/oz!
If that were the case, you should Sell silver @$50 and Buy gold @$150 -- giving you a 3:1 ratio! Well done, bubble! Well done!

maplesilverbug
31st December 2010, 03:36
Interesting data from Google Trends on "silver bullion"

http://www.google.ca/trends/viz?q=silver+bullion&date=all&geo=all&graph=weekly_img&sort=0&sa=N

link w/data: http://www.google.ca/trends?q=silver+bullion&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0 (http://www.google.ca/trends?q=silver+bullion&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0)


And THIS one just about sums up any questions if the silver market is in the "public mania" phase:

(Google Trends search: silver bullion [blue], american idol [red])

http://www.google.ca/trends/viz?q=silver+bullion,+american+idol&date=all&geo=all&graph=weekly_img&sort=1&sa=N

Google says: 'silver bullion does not have enough search volume for ranking'

link w/ data: http://www.google.ca/trends?q=silver+bullion%2C+american+idol&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0 (http://www.google.ca/trends?q=silver+bullion%2C+american+idol&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0)


No bubble.

kvanar
31st December 2010, 03:39
Interesting posts.

How about twitter trends? But I guess Google is more accurate for trending analysis.

maplesilverbug
31st December 2010, 03:55
Just to top it all of, a final Google Trends:

BLUE: education RED: tv

http://www.google.ca/trends/viz?q=education,+tv&date=all&geo=us&graph=weekly_img&sort=1&sa=N

link: http://www.google.ca/trends?q=education%2C+tv&ctab=0&geo=us&geor=all&date=all&sort=1

As you can see, the search for education has been decreasing substantially whilst the search for tv/teevee has been rising steadily.


'Nuff said.

main1event
31st December 2010, 04:08
Silver would not be in a bubble if it hit $50.00 an ounce based on this scenario. In order for a bubble to form something needs to double or triple in a very short time frame and by going vertical. For instance the Nasdaq went from 2500 to 5000 in a 3 month period from November to March. Silver started in August and so far its taken until December and we still have not doubled from our breakout point of 19.50. At the current rate of the Silver move we will not double until February of this year. As long as we stay within this channel that we are currently in we are fine. However, if we have an upside break of this channel and double within a 3 month period we will not have formed any type of bubble. That would currently mean a bubble will not have formed until we hit 62.00 right now. I have a feeling will not break out of the current channel for a while. The public does not know about Silver. How many of your friends are telling you to buy silver? We have a ways to go in this market. Although we are geting closer to a top. Perhaps another 1 year or 2 years out.

buffalo3
31st December 2010, 04:14
Silver would not be in a bubble if it hit $50.00 an ounce based on this scenario. In order for a bubble to form something needs to double or triple in a very short time frame and by going vertical. For instance the Nasdaq went from 2500 to 5000 in a 3 month period from November to March. Silver started in August and so far its taken until December and we still have not doubled from our breakout point of 19.50. At the current rate of the Silver move we will not double until February of this year. As long as we stay within this channel that we are currently in we are fine. However, if we have an upside break of this channel and double within a 3 month period we will not have formed any type of bubble. That would currently mean a bubble will not have formed until we hit 62.00 right now. I have a feeling will not break out of the current channel for a while. The public does not know about Silver. How many of your friends are telling you to buy silver? We have a ways to go in this market. Although we are geting closer to a top. Perhaps another 1 year or 2 years out.

Personally. I think Main knows more than the shills.

ccjoe
31st December 2010, 04:38
Maple's chart is the EXACT reason I eschew charts.
How can silver plummet in whatever number of years when it will be that much closer to being depleted? Makes no sense.
I'm a fundamental man and supply/demand screams silver shortages so silver will NEVER plummet as there are too many uses.
I'm sure you know about Kodachrome's last hurrah yesterday? ZERO effect on silver as more and more fundamental silver uses will and have picked up the slack.
People will say, "How did you know?" How could others not know that silver will skyrocket! It's like copper> as a few ignorant people have made fun of my 50 grand investment which is NOW worth 20% more> uncommon sense as I teach my kids cause few people have it! Big Ears SUPPLY?DEMAND!

ccjoe
31st December 2010, 04:44
I can't wait for the equities crash in the next few months. THEN, I'm taking some of my cu/ag profits and jumping into some miners. NOT UNTIL THEN as you WILL get slaughtered.http://www.fcx.com/ir/2010present/Macquarie_NOV10.pdf

maplesilverbug
31st December 2010, 10:07
Some more revealing trends in the "public mania" a la Google:
(no charts per se, so all you get is the link; but LOTS of VERY interesting data -- especially the state/metro/city map, as well as the "rising search" info. Make of it what you will...)

Silver Coins (http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=silver%20coins&geo=US&cmpt=q)

Silver Bullion (http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=silver%20bullion&geo=US&cmpt=q)

All these searches are for the US.
I did the 'silver bullion' search for Canada and ALL 10 of the 'Rising Searches' came back labeled "Breakout" -- indicating a 5,000% change in search growth!

There may not be a bubble growing, but it's obvious something is happening...even if 75% of the population can't afford to buy any!

An anecdote about the lack of "public mania" aka bubble...in the last TWO years I have met exactly ONE person who has spoken openly about buying silver, and that was about a month ago. I know PM bugs are a suspicious bunch and don't like to advertise but c'mon...ONE person in TWO years!

orlando_wrx
31st December 2010, 10:31
Bubble implies that the holders are looking to profit in dollars. As time passes it will become obvious to many that a trade back to dollars is the foolish thing to do. The US dollar is what has been a bubble, the rise of silver and gold is simply a return to the preceeding 6000 years of "normal."