PDA

View Full Version : $29.02 at 3:10 AM are we back for round two today??



valerb
8th December 2010, 02:20
I thought it would take two or three runs at $30, but I didn't expect it to have such a long jump this time. It's like a hundred yard dash just to reach the wall. I hope they still have some umph left when they reach it again.

kvanar
8th December 2010, 02:34
Really tough call this one from a spot price perspective.

Remaining weaker hands still holding may be shaken off with another deep dive.

On the other hand if past three months are any indicator, buying on dip could still be alive and well...buyers convinced obviously that Silver retains high price growth potential in the months and years ahead.

Most of the analysts I've been reading are unfortunately saying further correction is ahead.



I thought it would take two or three runs at $30, but I didn't expect it to have such a long jump this time. It's like a hundred yard dash just to reach the wall. I hope they still have some umph left when they reach it again.

beach miner
8th December 2010, 03:15
Maybe years ago when the tree got shook, the small players would bail out, and the middle players would soon follow. Things could be different now, with all the exposure that the Manipulation has been given, investors don't want to Give UP so easily. Larger investors like Hedge Funds, and Chinese interests arne't prone to panic. The fudamentals in Silver are stronger than JPM's roar. I'm more into Supply, than I am into Spot. Right now Tulving is down to 5----Yeah 5 items of Silver that are not Junk Silver. When he gets 1000 oz bars they only last a couple of days, he use to have over 30 items listed. Provident Metals has Sold Out on over half of their stuff, same with APMEX. It's not a shortage yet, so don't get your hopes up, there is still Silver out there in retail, a wholesale land, just not the variety there was a couple of months ago. To be continued in my next post, need to get some facts straight first.

valerb
8th December 2010, 03:42
Really tough call this one from a spot price perspective.

Remaining weaker hands still holding may be shaken off with another deep dive.

On the other hand if past three months are any indicator, buying on dip could still be alive and well...buyers convinced obviously that Silver retains high price growth potential in the months and years ahead.

Most of the analysts I've been reading are unfortunately saying further correction is ahead.


I read one every once in awhile. Since they are almost always wrong, I gave up years ago. All stories ended with, the price is going up, buy, the price is going down, buy. The price is stable, buy before it starts going back up again. Tons of fascinating articles, but they all end with the same logic, why you should buy more Silver. I believe in Silver, I don't need someone trying to convince me with spin. I think Bob Chapman is the best at spinning doom and gloom. He really makes it sound like its a done deal, whatever he is talking about. With the stuff he comes up with, I think he would make an outstanding fiction writer. Not that he isn't talking about real life events, it's just that most of them do not end as tragically as he is predicting. If just 10% of his predictions were to come true, we would all be living in a cave somewhere, if we were still alive and could afford to rent a cave.

valerb
8th December 2010, 03:54
Maybe years ago when the tree got shook, the small players would bail out, and the middle players would soon follow. Things could be different now, with all the exposure that the Manipulation has been given, investors don't want to Give UP so easily. Larger investors like Hedge Funds, and Chinese interests arne't prone to panic. The fudamentals in Silver are stronger than JPM's roar. I'm more into Supply, than I am into Spot. Right now Tulving is down to 5----Yeah 5 items of Silver that are not Junk Silver. When he gets 1000 oz bars they only last a couple of days, he use to have over 30 items listed. Provident Metals has Sold Out on over half of their stuff, same with APMEX. It's not a shortage yet, so don't get your hopes up, there is still Silver out there in retail, a wholesale land, just not the variety there was a couple of months ago. To be continued in my next post, need to get some facts straight first.

The retail supply problem is one of limited production capacity and reduced selling on the part of stacker's in a rising market. Can you imagine how short the supply would be if the US Mint wasn't going balls to the wall in the last couple years. If they were to shut the US Mint down for a couple months right now, everything would dry up, with the exception of a few actual retail mints. It would be worse than the retail shortage in 2008.

beach miner
8th December 2010, 04:16
Thanks Val. I was wondering why Tulving, AMPEX, Provident and other outlets all had lots of Eagle inventory and little of everything else. That explains it. If Buyers are going to be limited to what Silver is available, Eagles ain't bad. Now does the U.S. Mint have a first Priority on Silver, which would mean that a wholesale shortage does exist, since smaller mints wouldn't have any product to work with.

ccjoe
8th December 2010, 05:03
Great posts!
I'm most concerned/impressed? with the 10 year approaching 3.2%!
Ya think anyone will be able to finance anything> read housing for less than unaffordable rates?
See ya economy:(

valerb
8th December 2010, 05:30
Thanks Val. I was wondering why Tulving, AMPEX, Provident and other outlets all had lots of Eagle inventory and little of everything else. That explains it. If Buyers are going to be limited to what Silver is available, Eagles ain't bad. Now does the U.S. Mint have a first Priority on Silver, which would mean that a wholesale shortage does exist, since smaller mints wouldn't have any product to work with.

The US Mint get's the bulk if not all of their blanks for Sunshine Mint. Part of this so called ASE shortage and higher prices are caused by the dealers ordering far more than they had orders for. Everyone is sucking up ASE's but not as fast as the Mint can make them. We all read about how many they have sold this year, but that is only how many they have sold to dealers. As far as a shortage at the wholesale level affecting us in Retail, we will be the first to find out about it long before it actually happens. You can bet JM will stop producing 100 ounce bars when things start to get tight. As far as using 1,000 ounce bars to produce smaller retail size products. It's a mixed bag in the retail business. There are a number of stamping plants that do nothing but stamp rounds from blanks, produced by someone else. Others actually have the ability to melt bars and turn them into rounds and smaller bars. While a few melt these bars and produce nothing but smaller bars and you'll notice that they are rather crude looking. They are just melting and pouring into smaller sizes. To produce an actual Silver round, you have to be able to convert a big bar into a roll of silver that can be punched out into individual blanks or buy the rolls from someone else or the actual blanks themselves. Each step in the process requires more expensive equipment starting at the beginning and becoming cheaper as you go to the next step.

Then we have the actual mints that process Silver directly from the mining operations into Silver products. I don't know the stages but Silver is processed into different stages of purity, until it reaches the purity desired. I believe Sunshine has the ability to do the entire process in their system. I don't know where NWTM picks up. I've been told that they have the ability to convert large bars, which is fairly early in the process. I don't know if they start any earlier than that. NWTM is directly linked with Pan American mine for their Silver. These different stages are called ore and dore (maybe doar) and I think maybe one or two more steps in getting to the .999 level. The last time I saw metal being turned into sheet, it had to go through a series of rollers, each one squeezing the roll thinner and thinner, to reach the exact thickness. Basically stretching it out at each step, but that was over thirty years ago. So all of these different stamping plants are starting from different points in the process. If and when the retail market is cut off from wholesale bars, it will have a serious impact of our retail Silver as only Silver coming directly for the refining operations will be available.

beach miner
8th December 2010, 06:43
I think we are getting a pretty good deal when we only have to pay a dollar or two over spot to get a
.999 silver ounce with a good looking image stamped on it. That's a pretty sophisticated process to bring raw ore to .999 purity. Then to melt it into rods, that are sliced to 1 oz blanks and then stamped. Let alone all the folks along the way needing to cover their costs of handling. I'll still keep buying at these prices, just not as much, or as feverishly. I hit my Silver Stash Goal last summer, so anything I have added will be a bonus. Like you, I am gettin older, and plan enjoy evey Ounce of It. See Ya At The Top.

Old Duck
8th December 2010, 07:03
There all always those that take profits when anything touches a top. When they are gone, then it will make a new top

SpreadBetter
8th December 2010, 07:10
I think we will continue to unwind down to around 28 before the bull begins to charge again.

silverheartbone
8th December 2010, 07:14
I think we are getting a pretty good deal when we only have to pay a dollar or two over spot to get a .999 silver ounce with a good looking image stamped on it. That's a pretty sophisticated process to bring raw ore to .999 purity. Then to melt it into rods, that are sliced to 1 oz blanks and then stamped. Let alone all the folks along the way needing to cover their costs of handling. I'll still keep buying at these prices, just not as much, or as feverishly. I hit my Silver Stash Goal last summer, so anything I have added will be a bonus. Like you, I am gettin older, and plan enjoy evey Ounce of It. See Ya At The Top.

I thoroughly and totally agree.
We are getting a great bargain with minted bullion.
I believe the true energy cost of extraction and fabrication alone has to exceed the premium.

Like you beach miner, I too hit my goal this past spring.
Only to hit one of those hiccups by being denied my teacher certification in time to pick up a contract this season, and then face the worst teacher hiring situation in my lifetime.
Even school boards are saying experienced only.
I don't feel too bad in having to release some stash, as that is one reason for having it, but I would really love to never have had to touch it until the Federal Reserve dies.

When unemployed, it seems that finding even a part-time $10 an hour job can be challenging here in the state of Misery for a senior citizen like me.
Perversely, whoreporations prefer you to already be working before they hire you.
I seriously doubt if I'll ever find any computer/engineering/manufacturing job that will pay enough for me to accumulate again, as the whoreporations will continue to import various Asians for any remaining positions.

beach miner
8th December 2010, 07:32
Your NOT UNEMPLOYED--you just have not started working yet. Start selling stuff on EBAY. Clear out the garage, attic, closets. You have thousands of dollars of stuff just laying around, that you'll never use, or use very little. Once you get the house cleaned up go on Craigslist and check out the FREE stuff. Be choosey, just get the good stuff and sell it on EBAY. You will like working for yourself, might even make more money, and increase your STACK. It can hold you over till something comes along. Now get out the camera and go to WORK. See Ya At The Top.

silverheartbone
8th December 2010, 07:45
Your NOT UNEMPLOYED--you just have not started working yet. Start selling stuff on EBAY. Clear out the garage, attic, closets. You have thousands of dollars of stuff just laying around, that you'll never use, or use very little. Once you get the house cleaned up go on Craigslist and check out the FREE stuff. Be choosey, just get the good stuff and sell it on EBAY. You will like working for yourself, might even make more money, and increase your STACK. It can hold you over till something comes along. Now get out the camera and go to WORK. See Ya At The Top.

Thanks for the suggestion, I'll consider what you suggest about Ebay.
Having moved interstate too many times over the past decade,
I've given away a lot of goodies that I'd accumulated.
I continue to give away old stuff to charity on a regular basis,
multiple times a year, most recently last week.
I do have a snow blower that I do not want, but that's too much to ship.
I'm attempting to start math tutoring in my home for a bargain rate.
And I am learning the PureBasic compiler so I can do freelance computer programming on Windows 7.

kvanar
8th December 2010, 07:50
Hey duckie! Yes excellent point.
You should post more dude.

Cheers.


There all always those that take profits when anything touches a top. When they are gone, then it will make a new top

kvanar
8th December 2010, 07:54
Hey Bone.

Well I live in Asia and the reverse is true here in the sense that companies are hiring expat caucasians AND other cheaper asians depriving the locals of jobs.

Pathetic huh?




I thoroughly and totally agree.
We are getting a great bargain with minted bullion.
I believe the true energy cost of extraction and fabrication alone has to exceed the premium.

Like you beach miner, I too hit my goal this past spring.
Only to hit one of those hiccups by being denied my teacher certification in time to pick up a contract this season, and then face the worst teacher hiring situation in my lifetime.
Even school boards are saying experienced only.
I don't feel too bad in having to release some stash, as that is one reason for having it, but I would really love to never have had to touch it until the Federal Reserve dies.

When unemployed, it seems that finding even a part-time $10 an hour job can be challenging here in the state of Misery for a senior citizen like me.
Perversely, whoreporations prefer you to already be working before they hire you.
I seriously doubt if I'll ever find any computer/engineering/manufacturing job that will pay enough for me to accumulate again, as the whoreporations will continue to import various Asians for any remaining positions.

silverheartbone
8th December 2010, 08:44
Hey Bone.

Well I live in Asia and the reverse is true here in the sense that companies are hiring expat caucasians AND other cheaper asians depriving the locals of jobs.

Pathetic huh?

I've noticed that for decades.

A given two equally qualified candidates, a Fortune 500 operation will hire the non-local every time.
Less of a threat.
More dependent?