Caution warranted.

[silviasdad]

Now that silver is a hot topic on the financial TV and the silver ETF has launched, these could be tip-offs that the euphoria surrounding may be nearing at least a temporary peak. Buying now looks very dangerous, although long-term holders may wish to hold out for higher levels. Don't forget how they sold it off in APril 2004 - a 35% drop in a few weeks. It can happen again.

[Ardent Listener]

Not today as silver is over $13.50 as I write this. However, I have cut back my silver buying at this time.

[silviasdad]

I remember the near-parabolic rise during Feb/Mar/April 2004; the price chart was practically screaming 'take some profits NOW!", as it approached $8. Meanwhile the silver cheerleaders were pontificating about even higher prices. By the time the subsequent sell-off abated the price had dropped to about $5.60.

After I endured that drawdown, I vowed to never listen to another newsletter writer or market guru again. I subsequently was able to get out just shy of $8 in early December 2004, just before they killed it again. Now, I rely solely on proven technical analysis techniques that provide more timely entries and exits.

Don't mistake me, silver is a good long term buy for as long as the US has chronic deficit spending and/or the US Dollar is weak against foreign currencies. But I don't buy the supply deficit line any more - the price would have to be many times higher by now if that were true. No, silver, just like oil, is heavily influenced by long speculative interests in the futures markets, and it's the appetite for speculative profits by long specs that has resulted in the pricing lunacy, especially in the oil market, in my estimation.

The silver ETF, by the way, is a great idea - no longer will those wishing to speculate on silver have to pay high broker commissions and storage costs for physical metal, nor will they have to assume the risks of trading margined futures contracts. It's a traders dream! It's even a good deal for 'buy and holders'!

[Ardent Listener]

Silver has an almost cult like following with some of its holders. They may never sell their holdings no matter how much profit they make. Yes, they will get excited when the market moves up, but will often be just as excited with the market moves back down so they can buy even more silver. Long term investors is an understatement. They are life-term investors. One reason for this is because they don't trust or relate to fiat (Federal Reserve Notes) money. To them being stuck with fiat money and maybe out of silver or gold forever is worse than missing an oppertunity to take a profit. These silver holders will continue to hold PMs because they believe that "Sh!t is going to hit the fan" and silver and gold are going to be needed for survival.

I fall some where in between them and you. Unlike many of them I won't continue to buy much silver because I feel it is over-sold. Sure, I might miss out buying even more at $13.50 and silver will shoot up to $50 or more an ounce next month. But even if it did, the silver hoarders most likely won't sell then because they will take $50 as a sure sign that "Sh!t is hitting the fan now". It wasn't in 79/80 but that is not to say they might not be right this time. On the other hand I'm not ready to sell-off my holdings for a quick profit. If I did I might find that I will never be able to buy it at a low price again. But it won't surprise me if silver was to head south again over the short term. If it does I'll be buying again. I'm into this for the long term.


I also don't have a lot of faith in the silver EFT. Read the prospectus and you will see that all management fees and storage will come out of its silver holdings. In addition, I'm just not comfortable with someone else holding my silver for me.

[silviasdad]

I agree that the fiat-based monetary system is in trouble, worldwide. In fact I read the other day that all of the property in the US (real estate, tangible goods, plants and equipment (public and private)) is valued at only 30% of the 45 Trillion dollar debt that is owned by the government, private individuals and corporations. In other words, they won't even be able to 'inflate' the debt away this time, because it's gone too far.

However, I seriously doubt, in the case of a deflationary depression, that people who own silver or gold will be able to just strut into their local grocery store/bank/gas station and start throwing metal coins around, somehow believing that the shiny little coins will somehow save them from the economic carnage. Th authorities will probably confiscate the coins anyway, if things get that bad. My best guess is that when the collapse comes in the next decade or so, that governments will once again use gold as backing for all paper and digital currencies. More likely than not, a supranational central bank will run the entire global financial system, ensuring that national central banks won't ever again be allowed to debase their currencies for political or economic reasons. Think '666', and you'll understand my drift .....

In the meantime, I expect to see major convulsions in the US economy if the housing mania turns into a housing panic, the major stock indexes sell off by 30% or more (they're all ripe for a major correction anyway), the oil crunch worsens, long-term interest rates revert to the mean and as the Chinese begin to call the shots to a larger extent. So, maybe traders and investors can make some $$$ with silver in the meantime - or not!

[Fuzz]

I bought silver in 98-99 when I first learned about colloidal silver. I figured anything that could kill all virus and most bacteria must, in the long run, have more value than anything pharmaceutical. I bought 1 and 10 oz. bullion and a bag of 90%.
Knowing the value of colloidal silver (CS) I would never sell but I would give it away to sensible people should the government call it in for the sake of humanity in case of a pandamic. Think avain flu, I don't but I do know how to make my own CS. Don't think tamiflu because it's a scam. The secretary of the D0D who jumps between the DoD and the pharmaceutical companies just made 5 million off the bird flu scare.
I have not been sick since taking CS and a couple of ounces of 999 fine would last a lifetime. CS in the health food store can cost between $25.00 and $45.00 a quart and I have been known to drink a quart or two a day to prove to friends that you will not turn blue.

[Ardent Listener]

Fuzz, how do you make your own?

[Fuzz]

Ardent Listener,

There are many ways but to simplify things I will tell you that CS can be made using three 9V batteries in series, 8ozs. distilled water and 999 fine silver. Cook for 20 minutes to get 3-5 PPM. The important thing is to use distilled water and 999 fine silver. A simple laser beam will show you what you have made.

I use a AC/DC converter (radio shack) 36VDC, quart of distilled, a 1k Ohm resister and 999 fine silver. Cook for 20-60 minutes on a timer cleaning the cathode after 20 minutes. I can make it in moments with a 6400V DC air purifier and it can be made with your telephone line which runs about 52-54 VDC.

See: http://www.silvermedicine.org/

Here is a URL just for fun: http://www.coinflation.com/

Seems a nickle is worth about 5.25 cents and that doesn't include making it, shipping or handling, add another 2 cents.

The copper penny that was about 3% zink is now 97% zink is on its way out too.

Sorry to get off the silver subject but rather than using wooden nickels I hope they turn to hemp and make ethenol as a by product.

Fuzz

[Bill]

Ardent Listener,

I'm pretty much in the same seat as you when it comes to silver investing. I recently purchased about 200 oz. in the form of 10 oz. bars. I'd like to hold on to it until we see that $50+ POS......if we ever see it. But, I'm also a man that hates to lose money. But, who really does, right? My plan is to wait until we see prices of about $23/oz, then sell half of my stash. At that price it will be worth double what I have invested. That way I will be dead even. I will have lost nothing. And I will have the rest of my silver to 'dream' with. And I don't think $23 POS is an unreasonable goal. I think it will reach that. It's just a matter of when.

Anyway, that's my game plan. Damned if you do; Damned if you don't.

[Silver Bull]

My plan is to wait until we see prices of about $23/oz, then sell half of my stash. At that price it will be worth double what I have invested. That way I will be dead even. I will have lost nothing.

Or, you could sell half your stash now and when the other half reaches $23 you will be even. But where is the fun in that. You never want to put all your chickens in one basket. The metals market is one of great speculation today and alot of potential profit. But as in all investing, only invest what you can afford to lose. That way, hopefully, the investments that you have guessed right on will make up for those you chose wrong.

[DaleFromCalgary]

"Silver has an almost cult like following with some of its holders. They may never sell their holdings no matter how much profit they make. Yes, they will get excited when the market moves up, but will often be just as excited with the market moves back down so they can buy even more silver. Long term investors is an understatement. They are life-term investors. One reason for this is because they don't trust or relate to fiat (Federal Reserve Notes) money. To them being stuck with fiat money and maybe out of silver or gold forever is worse than missing an oppertunity to take a profit. These silver holders will continue to hold PMs because they believe that "Sh!t is going to hit the fan" and silver and gold are going to be needed for survival."

I like that phrase "life-term investors". If I don't need my bullion, it will be a nice inheritance to the kids for them to be going on with.

[MiloMorai]

"Silver has an almost cult like following with some of its holders. They may never sell their holdings no matter how much profit they make. Yes, they will get excited when the market moves up, but will often be just as excited with the market moves back down so they can buy even more silver. Long term investors is an understatement. They are life-term investors. One reason for this is because they don't trust or relate to fiat (Federal Reserve Notes) money. To them being stuck with fiat money and maybe out of silver or gold forever is worse than missing an oppertunity to take a profit. These silver holders will continue to hold PMs because they believe that "Sh!t is going to hit the fan" and silver and gold are going to be needed for survival."

I like that phrase "life-term investors". If I don't need my bullion, it will be a nice inheritance to the kids for them to be going on with.

Thank You Dale my Feelings Exactly ;)

[ccjoe]

"Silver has an almost cult like following with some of its holders. They may never sell their holdings no matter how much profit they make. Yes, they will get excited when the market moves up, but will often be just as excited with the market moves back down so they can buy even more silver. Long term investors is an understatement. They are life-term investors. One reason for this is because they don't trust or relate to fiat (Federal Reserve Notes) money. To them being stuck with fiat money and maybe out of silver or gold forever is worse than missing an oppertunity to take a profit. These silver holders will continue to hold PMs because they believe that "Sh!t is going to hit the fan" and silver and gold are going to be needed for survival."

I like that phrase "life-term investors". If I don't need my bullion, it will be a nice inheritance to the kids for them to be going on with.
Outstanding post Dale. You hit the exact chord with me and probably many others. Unfortunately I will HAVE to get out of most my holdings in 3-6 yrs for the kids' college fund and retirement after that.

[Katwoman]

If you study TA you will learn that in order to have a major breakout from the cup and handle pattern you need more buyers than sellers and the only way for this to happen is for the commodity or equity to be in the news....that is just the way it works.

This is not reason to be concerned but if anything a reason to be excited and to take advantage of the buying op because it means that PMs are about to take off big time. For those of you who trade on paper this could be your chance to profit and buy some more physical.

[silverheartbone]

I bought silver in 98-99 when I first learned about colloidal silver. I figured anything that could kill all virus and most bacteria must, in the long run, have more value than anything pharmaceutical. I bought 1 and 10 oz. bullion and a bag of 90%.
Knowing the value of colloidal silver (CS) I would never sell but I would give it away to sensible people should the government call it in for the sake of humanity in case of a pandamic. Think avain flu, I don't but I do know how to make my own CS. Don't think tamiflu because it's a scam. The secretary of the D0D who jumps between the DoD and the pharmaceutical companies just made 5 million off the bird flu scare.
I have not been sick since taking CS and a couple of ounces of 999 fine would last a lifetime. CS in the health food store can cost between $25.00 and $45.00 a quart and I have been known to drink a quart or two a day to prove to friends that you will not turn blue.

Far worse than a scam.

"Last week, many of the aboriginal people in the remote west coast village of Ahousaht were innoculated with the tamiflu vaccine (http://www.republicoflakotah.com/2009/the-mask-slips-for-those-with-eyes-to-see-preparing-for-the-real-pandemic/). Today, over a hundred of them are sick, and the sickness is spreading.

In the same week, body bags were sent to similarly remote native reserves in northern Manitoba that have also received the tamiflu vaccine.

On the face of things, it appears that flu vaccinations are causing a sickness that is being deliberately aimed at aboriginal people across Canada, and this sickness will be fatal: a fact acknowledged by the Canadian government by their “routine” sending of body bags to these Indian villages.

Before you express your shock and denial at the idea that people are being racially targeted and killed, remember that murdering Indians with vaccinations is not a new or abnormal thing in Canada. Indeed, it’s how we Europeans “won the land”, and it’s one of the ways we keep it."

[skijake]

"Silver has an almost cult like following with some of its holders. They may never sell their holdings no matter how much profit they make. Yes, they will get excited when the market moves up, but will often be just as excited with the market moves back down so they can buy even more silver. Long term investors is an understatement. They are life-term investors. One reason for this is because they don't trust or relate to fiat (Federal Reserve Notes) money. To them being stuck with fiat money and maybe out of silver or gold forever is worse than missing an oppertunity to take a profit. These silver holders will continue to hold PMs because they believe that "Sh!t is going to hit the fan" and silver and gold are going to be needed for survival."

I like that phrase "life-term investors". If I don't need my bullion, it will be a nice inheritance to the kids for them to be going on with.

This thread was started in April 2006.
I think it is the longest current running thread.;)
There are Lifers and now there are Life-Termers,,,,Guilty.:rolleyes:

[DaleFromCalgary]

Gold for old age, silver for trading the ratio.

[akak]

Wow, I didn't realize just how perverse and evil we silver-holders really are!
Who are we, to be saving "for life"?

Why, that mentality is SO 19th century! Along with the belief in privacy and liberty. Don't we know that spending is patriotic?

[Argentum]

Interesting.... I'm also a "Lifer" But I do have a sell points.

[zr4]

I'm still buying, only looking for the best deals. Today I scored 17 junk standing quarters for $2.66 a piece tax included.