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View Full Version : NO SILVER SHORTAGE. TED BUTLER 'S A$$ being kicked here



strongman shelford
27th August 2008, 21:26
This guy is sending a solid case against Ted Butler. Or is not solid?
This guy is saying "don`t be stupid. No silver shortage . Just silver bar shortage".

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/08/great-gold-silver-conspiracy-explained.html

Bring your ideas!

This thread is going to get hot!!!:p
Just bring your ideas !!

hiyosilver
27th August 2008, 22:33
Obviously simple...the author is long on the dollar and short on sense...

balou2
27th August 2008, 23:24
The reality is, nobody really knows what's going on. The conspiracy theorist in me allows for a minute chance that the major silver producers are stocking up right now, waiting until the price goes back up...just like your local coin shop. The people who KNOW the value of PM, know that the oh-so-poignant "SPOT IS NOT SPOT" statement rings true in more ways than the obvious.

That said, what the hell do I know. Butler is an esteemed PM pundit, but he could be wrong too. The end result is that we do not truly know what manipulation is taking place- high enough up, the people mining silver are all in it for a profit. They wouldn't have invested millions of dollars to "do us a solid". I digress...what the hell do I know...other than I want more.

Trvlr45
28th August 2008, 01:16
I'm with you. Balou. The chicanery and skullbuggery in this market or any other has been tweaked and screwed with for so long that all you can do is stock up until you have enough to feel that your postion is good and then wait for the future to arrive.

That's what I'm doing. There are so many opinions out there that it is impossible for anyone who isn't in on the private meetings to ever have a concrete opinion on the market. It's all about guessing and going on gut feelings.

chux03
28th August 2008, 01:36
Even Jason Hommell and some others have come out and said there's "really no shortage of silver per-se. But there is a shortage of "retail investment products". He just posted an email from a guy (and then they talked on the phone to each other) who was in the silver market who mentioned to him that there was no real shortage, the big COMEX 1000 oz bars and others were available. The problem was that they weren't turning any of these larger pieces of silver into 100 oz and smaller weights of silver. Wasn't that the problem at the Perth Mint...and the NW Territorial Mint? That they had the silver, it just took em awhile to make the smaller sized items and then ship em out??

Granted, the spot price appears to be a fictional accounting of what the paper silver pushers would like the price of silver to be. Trouble is everyone who's holding silver now ain't gonna budge and let loose of any, especially at these prices. The relatively free market at Ebay ignores spot prices too. Expect to pay $3+ above spot should you be in the buying mood there...

I still see they have PLENTY of silver for sale at the two places I've mentioned in past posts.

Both GoldMoney - www.goldmoney.com and www.sunshinesilver.com have LOTS of silver for sale...and not very far off spot. APMEX seems to change daily so I'd check there too. There's silver around...it's just gonna be well above spot and those that had it yesterday may not have it today and visa-versa.

main1event
28th August 2008, 08:05
The biggest argument this guy does not address is this, and this is the biggest part of Ted Butlers case. The shorting is about 2/10s the worlds annual supply. That is a huge concentrated short position. Its impossible to deliver 200 million ounces of silver, so why should buying or selling contracts be allowed for such a large amount?

main1event
28th August 2008, 08:11
The huge concentrated short position is a divergence from what can actually be supplied. So essentially there is a difference between paper and actual physical metal. How can you short something that isnt there? In fact how can you buy something that cant be delivered?

hiyosilver
28th August 2008, 09:33
The biggest argument this guy does not address is this, and this is the biggest part of Ted Butlers case. The shorting is about 2/10s the worlds annual supply. That is a huge concentrated short position. Its impossible to deliver 200 million ounces of silver, so why should buying or selling contracts be allowed for such a large amount?


The huge concentrated short position is a divergence from what can actually be supplied. So essentially there is a difference between paper and actual physical metal. How can you short something that isnt there? In fact how can you buy something that cant be delivered?

Exactly, short and simple...

prahudka
28th August 2008, 10:04
The huge concentrated short position is a divergence from what can actually be supplied. So essentially there is a difference between paper and actual physical metal. How can you short something that isnt there? In fact how can you buy something that cant be delivered?

The disconnect is really the story. Butler is absolutely right about that.

What Butler can't tell you is when reality will catch up with the paper market. That is really the essence of the Butler philosophy and we all know that the fat lady is not singing yet. The dominance of the paper market is not in question.

The subprime mortgage market was a similar situation. Paper and the true assets diverged. During the growth of the real estate values, the divergence from the true assets (salaries and the abilities of mortgagors to pay) was not a problem. We all know how that played out. But, it was great business for many years.

Aksura
28th August 2008, 10:07
I'm with you. Balou. The chicanery and skullbuggery in this market or any other has been tweaked and screwed with for so long that all you can do is stock up until you have enough to feel that your postion is good and then wait for the future to arrive.

That's what I'm doing. There are so many opinions out there that it is impossible for anyone who isn't in on the private meetings to ever have a concrete opinion on the market. It's all about guessing and going on gut feelings.

from what i know, there are only a few handful of reliable data and analysis on PM outside silver instuitute or GFMS and silver-investor.com.

maybe the only people who knows what's going on are the miner company and refineary.

chux03
28th August 2008, 10:39
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Mike Shedlock of Sitka Pacific Capital Management in Edmonds, Washington, who writes Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis letter, today tried to rebut those who complain about manipulation of the gold and silver markets, replying particularly to the most recent reports by Ted Butler and Rob Kirby about the increasingly concentrated short positions in the metals on the commodities exchange.

Shedlock's response is only a slogan: "For every long there is a short." A slogan is not an argument, and this slogan is utterly empty and disingenuous. For if someone sold futures contracts for more metal than there is in the whole world, there still would be a short and a long for each of those contracts, even as the price was driven down toward zero for something that, in fact, was not even available.

Commodity trading and anti-trust law recognize and forbid all sorts of market-manipulating schemes that operate wonderfully with the slogan "for every long there is a short." Commodity trading and anti-trust law also recognize that the likelihood of market manipulation increases as market positions become more concentrated.

The problem is simply that, for corrupt political reasons and even for geo-political reasons, these laws are no longer vigorously enforced and that, as the Washington Post demonstrated the other day in regard to oil, the chief regulator of the commodity markets, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, is no longer even competent to see what is going on right under its nose:

http://www.gata.org/node/6517

This failure to apply the ordinary principles of honest markets always has been a major complaint of those who contend that the gold and silver markets are manipulated. Indeed, as Blanchard & Co. argued in its anti-trust lawsuit against Barrick Gold, the major shorter of gold, and Barrick's bullion banker, JPMorganChase, Barrick had access to so much borrowed central bank gold through MorganChase that Barrick could drive the gold price up or down at will.

Barrick essentially admitted as much when it sought dismissal of Blanchard's lawsuit on the grounds that Barrick had become the agent of the central banks in regulating the gold market and thus should share their sovereign immunity against suit:

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2003/memoformotiontodis.pdf

But a better response to those who, like Shedlock, believe so naively in the integrity of the commodity exchanges may have been given today by Randy Strauss, Webmaster for Centennial Precious Metals in Denver (http://www.usagold.com/).

Strauss wrote:

"It doesn't take a loosely organized group of conspirators to weigh depressingly upon the mechanism of price discovery coming out of the NYMEX/COMEX futures exchange. All it takes is for the participants who have common sense to gain the upper hand over those who stubbornly don't have any.

"The futures contracts are put forth by the exchange as if they were actual contracts between counterparties looking to actually buy/sell the corresponding quantities of metal at their contract's snapshot price.

"But everyone with common sense knows that the physical element of the contract is just a pretense, and that after paying a simple margin to play the game for a brief while, the vast majority of these contracts will be settled with cash. That is, they will be closed out with an offsetting position in yet another contract rather than through a full-bodied payment of cash for delivery of metal between the counterparties.

"Those with common sense (and a memory of the Hunt brothers' experience nearly 30 years ago) know that there is no meat on the bones of these contracts and when crunch time arrives, default is the institutionalized and well-worn path of least resistance.

"It doesn't take conspiratorial planning for a preponderance of participants to know enough either to steer clear of these contracts or to short the hell out of them at such times as may be deemed advantageous. With an eye to the big picture, the shorts know that they're simply selling a 'contract' that's inevitably to be universally recognized as all fluff and no stuff. It's easy to sell a sure loser right down the river.

"And on the other side of the equation are the longs -- the very few who haven't yet realized that nothing materially is ever going to be coming out of those contracts -- except perhaps some short-term cash if they can trade in and out nimbly enough.

"But in the longer term, everyone with common sense understands the pretense and therefore knows that the contract is effectively rubbish, thus ever and always giving the shorters the upper hand when they square off at the exchange against the addle-headed longs who stand to gain nothing material out of their position in the overall equation.

"This situation reminds me of a story shared by a friend of mine who himself is a natural-born wheeler-dealer. His young son was being 'interviewed' by an elementary school administrator to assess whether the boy was developmentally mature enough to enter kindergarten that August versus waiting another year. To assess basic coping skills, the child was asked, 'What would you do if you went into the bathroom and discovered that the toilet was broken?'

"The boy's response: 'I'd sell it.'

"A chip off the old block, if ever there was one. If the kid could wrap his mind around the structure of a gold futures contract, I'm sure he'd know exactly what to do with that too.

"For those who insist on the conspiracy story, I guess my point is that you can sleep extra soundly knowing that there is a wider population of potential co-conspirators that you can add to your list.

"The bottom line: Take advantage of the physical market for as long as the scarce metal is still available at the deeply discounted prices of its exchange-traded papery derivatives."

You can find Shedlock's commentary, "The Great Gold, Silver Conspiracy Explained," at the Global Economic Analysis site here:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/08/great-gold-silver-con...

Or try this abbreviated link:

http://tinyurl.com/6r5ett

Of course there are a dozen other documentations and even official admissions of gold market manipulation that await Shedlock's analysis. But some people probably still will be chanting "for every long there is a short" even when the commodity exchange and the CFTC report that a single bank is responsible for 100 percent of the short position in gold and silver.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

skijake
28th August 2008, 11:46
[

Of course there are a dozen other documentations and even official admissions of gold market manipulation that await Shedlock's analysis. But some people probably still will be chanting "for every long there is a short" even when the commodity exchange and the CFTC report that a single bank is responsible for 100 percent of the short position in gold and silver.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.[/QUOTE]

Reminds me of the mindless election time political quotes that are repeated over and over again with no thought to reality. Just keep repeating the same stupid lie over and over again and evidentley enough people will fall in line to Make It So!! Good article::cool:

duneyman
28th August 2008, 15:17
Seven years ago I thought making a lot of money with silver wasn't too hard. There was a major ongoing supply deficit and eventually there would be a shortge of silver , the price would go way up, and I would become rich. Investing isn't that easy after all !

JesterJay
28th August 2008, 15:59
duneyman said:
"Investing isn't that easy after all!"

Jayman says:
Investing is EASY. Being patient and steadfast is Dang Near IMPOSSIBLE!

That's me,
JesterJay



Seven years ago I thought making a lot of money with silver wasn't too hard. There was a major ongoing supply deficit and eventually there would be a shortge of silver , the price would go way up, and I would become rich. Investing isn't that easy after all !

silver wink
28th August 2008, 19:14
Now they have run out of kruggerands...........

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=acH4WhPh1WJ0&refer=commodities

You have to admire the way they spin things, "they ran out after an unusually large order of 5,000 ozs." Later in the article it says they have manufactured, marketed and delivered 46m. ozs. since 1967. On a straight arithmetic basis (not accounting for higher sales these past few years) that is about 1,121,000 ozs, a year, or just over 3,000 ozs. per day. Strange how an order of 5,000 ozs. can affect deliveries for a week!

Keep buying, the dam will burst.

skijake
28th August 2008, 19:39
Now they have run out of kruggerands...........

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=acH4WhPh1WJ0&refer=commodities

You have to admire the way they spin things, "they ran out after an unusually large order of 5,000 ozs." Later in the article it says they have manufactured, marketed and delivered 46m. ozs. since 1967. On a straight arithmetic basis (not accounting for higher sales these past few years) that is about 1,121,000 ozs, a year, or just over 3,000 ozs. per day. Strange how an order of 5,000 ozs. can affect deliveries for a week!

Keep buying, the dam will burst.

It's raining like cats and dogs in the mountains. I know the dam keepers have a nice escape plan but I hope they go down with the dam!;)

strongman shelford
28th August 2008, 19:44
Me:

1) I have lived in hyperinflation 2 times in my life.
2) I got a 10 in economic history in Business College:rolleyes:

Facts
1) David Morgan saying silver paper is 100 times physical silver
2) dollar is freaking doomed.

Let's follow A K.I.S.S. ( Keep It Simple System)

Review Facts 2) ( dollar is doomed)

Buy silver and just wait!

I rest my case :p

Longhaul
29th August 2008, 09:25
[

Of course there are a dozen other documentations and even official admissions of gold market manipulation that await Shedlock's analysis. But some people probably still will be chanting "for every long there is a short" even when the commodity exchange and the CFTC report that a single bank is responsible for 100 percent of the short position in gold and silver.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Reminds me of the mindless election time political quotes that are repeated over and over again with no thought to reality. Just keep repeating the same stupid lie over and over again and evidentley enough people will fall in line to Make It So!! Good article::cool:[/QUOTE]

....and that reminds me of a quote by George Orwell....

"Political Language" is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidarity to pure wind"

I've been doing my part by purchasing as much as I can weekly....last buy was Wed. from CMI, they had lots (10-15 thousand) of Sunshine rounds for sale at $1.50 over spot.

My LCS still wont sell any silver......but he did sell me a superb Sterling Silver Ware 12 piece set for melt:)