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JesterJay
23rd June 2008, 15:53
Well the Monday Thump has hit and I am going to go buy Silver this evening. About $5 or 600 worth. And now I can get MORE than Yesterday!!!
I knew it was going to dive today. How did I know that and did YOU know too?
JesterJay

nuslvrkwen
23rd June 2008, 16:04
I didn't think it would go this low... I'm glad I didn't buy last week! This market can not be like it was this time last year....

JesterJay
23rd June 2008, 16:11
Extreme volatility.
Especially when the price starts to jump UP in chunks later this summer. It may take large dips too so be ready.
I call this an Opportunity to Buy.
JesterJay



I didn't think it would go this low... I'm glad I didn't buy last week! This market can not be like it was this time last year....

amadeus
23rd June 2008, 16:24
Not really a huge dip...but an oppotunity indeed.

I am picking up 15oz of .999 rounds/bars for ~$2 under this low spot per oz later this evening :)

Argentum
23rd June 2008, 18:23
My 50K transfer should clear tomorrow. I'm crossing my fingers it dips lower ;-)

pkrebaum
23rd June 2008, 21:46
Silver's like one of those inflatable punching clowns..... they keep on knocking her down and she keeps popping backup. With a big grin on her face that says "you fiat money fools, I'll always have the last laugh !".

balou2
23rd June 2008, 23:31
Not really a huge dip...but an oppotunity indeed.

I am picking up 15oz of .999 rounds/bars for ~$2 under this low spot per oz later this evening :)

Care to enlighten us to your source? Is it something internet available, or just a local shop. I think we'll see it lower tomorrow (Tuesday)...possibly the rest of week depending on the Fed announcements on Wednesday. I believe the 200 day average is decreasing though, so we may see 16.50 very shortly.

amadeus
24th June 2008, 16:15
Care to enlighten us to your source? Is it something internet available, or just a local shop. I think we'll see it lower tomorrow (Tuesday)...possibly the rest of week depending on the Fed announcements on Wednesday. I believe the 200 day average is decreasing though, so we may see 16.50 very shortly.

A nice lady I got in touch with via a local craigslist ad.

balou2
24th June 2008, 23:21
I think we'll see it lower tomorrow (Tuesday)...possibly the rest of week depending on the Fed announcements on Wednesday. I believe the 200 day average is decreasing though, so we may see 16.50 very shortly.

I'm glad I waited on Monday! I dropped a g at $16.58 today!!!

Renegade
25th June 2008, 02:12
I believe the 200 day average is decreasing though, so we may see 16.50 very shortly.

HUH?

I don't understand this theory!

Renegade

balou2
25th June 2008, 11:37
HUH?

I don't understand this theory!

Renegade

Maybe I misread the chart, but the 200 day average is decreasing, which is often a signal of a trend. It's very typical this time of year to see metals slide before the autumn period. Either way, we damn near hit 16.50 today, and still might.

JesterJay
29th June 2008, 13:15
Are we going to see another drop here on Monday or is all the stuff I've been reading about a PM breakout more correct?
Tell me what you ALL think!
Highly Pleased to be,
JesterJay

balou2
29th June 2008, 15:24
I've been wondering the same thing. I'm ready to drop another $500, but I want to see how the week will begin. If you follow the last few months, spot will fluctuate where it's (within $0.10-0.25) before it drops back down. I don't think we've hit "the breakout" yet. We'd see more action.

JesterJay
29th June 2008, 20:27
I have noticed on ebay that prices are on the rise. I think that speaks volumes for the direction the market is headed. The last time the market fell on Monday, ebay prices were considerably softer than usual.
But then again, from a contrarian viewpoint, SO many people have called the bottom that we may be near a top.
And the market may be ready to tank,
JesterJay




I've been wondering the same thing. I'm ready to drop another $500, but I want to see how the week will begin. If you follow the last few months, spot will fluctuate where it's (within $0.10-0.25) before it drops back down. I don't think we've hit "the breakout" yet. We'd see more action.

balou2
29th June 2008, 20:39
I'm always cautious about ebay, though. While it may be an indicator, it is not the litmus. When the Anaheim Ducks won the Stanley cup, collector cards of their rookie goalie when up for 3 weeks...50x their value. 3 weeks later...I could wipe my backside with their value.

What I DO know is that media is picking up more and more about Ag. As this begins to pick up, prices will continue to rise. I'm beginning to think we won't see sub $17 for a while.

Still searching for my local "connection", though I did find a guy who'll sell me 100 oz. for $0.40 over spot. May have to jumpt on that.

hiyosilver
29th June 2008, 22:57
If gold closes above $932, I think we'll gradually approach our March highs in PMs, but I still don't think this would be the big breakout. The asian markets are rising a little, which may hold it back, but so is oil, so it's difficult to call from this point

balou2
30th June 2008, 00:10
The more I think about it, I think this week is going to be a "nothing" kind of week. Global skepticism about "who is doing what, next" will keep things calm. China is the wild card for some things, but even then, it would be temporary. I think I'm still going to buy. Regardless of what everyone says, I still believe we'll see Ag dip back to $10-12/oz in the next year or two, before it goes through the roof and stays there. Nonetheless, I'm buying while I can afford it.

Early morning trading shows trending up in Asian markets, but nothing massive.

Malus
30th June 2008, 00:36
Nobody can predict the markets anymore. The blatant manipulation holds us in limbo. But, it seems to me that everyone expects silver and in a lesser degree, gold, to breakout and shoot for the stars. Now, does it really matter if silver is $16 or $17 or $20 when its gonna shoot to the moon. If you have the extra, just buy it before there's no more left around.

JesterJay
30th June 2008, 17:36
I have read most all of your posts in the past and find most of them to be in agreement with what I believe (not that I know anything).
This post, however, is amazingly contradictory. Please tell me why you would buy at $17 if you think silver is going to $10 in the SHORT term. You should sell and save CA$H for that $10 day!!! Can you clarify your strategy. You have some sort of in 'n out trades going on where you are getting ready to take advantage of a super short-term rise?
I also would like to know WHY you think that silver will drop so far when it would seem that within a year or two we will be seeing NEW highs, obvious silver shortages, and LOTS more media (old and new) on the Silver Explosion!
Thanks for your time,
JesterJay



The more I think about it, I think this week is going to be a "nothing" kind of week. Global skepticism about "who is doing what, next" will keep things calm. China is the wild card for some things, but even then, it would be temporary. I think I'm still going to buy. Regardless of what everyone says, I still believe we'll see Ag dip back to $10-12/oz in the next year or two, before it goes through the roof and stays there. Nonetheless, I'm buying while I can afford it.

Early morning trading shows trending up in Asian markets, but nothing massive.

balou2
30th June 2008, 18:10
I have read most all of your posts in the past and find most of them to be in agreement with what I believe (not that I know anything).
This post, however, is amazingly contradictory. Please tell me why you would buy at $17 if you think silver is going to $10 in the SHORT term. You should sell and save CA$H for that $10 day!!! Can you clarify your strategy. You have some sort of in 'n out trades going on where you are getting ready to take advantage of a super short-term rise?
I also would like to know WHY you think that silver will drop so far when it would seem that within a year or two we will be seeing NEW highs, obvious silver shortages, and LOTS more media (old and new) on the Silver Explosion!
Thanks for your time,
JesterJay

There is no strategy...there is no funkiness...it's just a gut feeling. If/when this drop happened, it would be just like a 24 hour $500 peak, which I've heard so many people speak about. I'm ready for that day like white on rice.

JesterJay
30th June 2008, 21:10
Gotcha,
Don't think it will happen, but I will be cheering FOR YOU if it does.
JesterJay



There is no strategy...there is no funkiness...it's just a gut feeling. If/when this drop happened, it would be just like a 24 hour $500 peak, which I've heard so many people speak about. I'm ready for that day like white on rice.

balou2
1st July 2008, 00:19
Don't get me wrong...I'm not banking on $10/oz...only that by volatility, even in upward mobility, exists a possibility of elastic volatility. I'm merely waiting for either of those scenarios to play out.

I DO, however, follow the Matlack reports and they're generally pretty accurate. They're looking at $14/oz through '09.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/matlack/jun302008.html

JesterJay
1st July 2008, 00:27
Unfortunately, Matlack depends on the patterns established by the manipulators who HAD control of the market. I think they are slowly but surely LOOSING it! I foresee that Ag will be VERY volatile on its way up. As we are seeing on a day to day basis. And please keep in mind it is in Kitco's best interest for silver to move S L O W L Y. They run articles that are bearish on silver FAR more than bullish reports.
They don't want us to own REAL silver any more than the manipulators do.
While silver may or may not go back to $14 for a very short spike down, that would be a very tough target to hit. I do not believe it will be a long term trend or a sideways move of much duration IF it happens.
We've perhaps seen the bottom and the rest is in an erratic UP direction.
But what the heck do I know?
JesterJay



Don't get me wrong...I'm not banking on $10/oz...only that by volatility, even in upward mobility, exists a possibility of elastic volatility. I'm merely waiting for either of those scenarios to play out.

I DO, however, follow the Matlack reports and they're generally pretty accurate. They're looking at $14/oz through '09.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/matlack/jun302008.html

balou2
1st July 2008, 12:16
Talk about a morning thump...Tuesday is off-the hook.

the_moonbeam
1st July 2008, 12:20
I had borrowed money against my retirement fund to buy about 1,400 ounces, but I haven't received my check yet. With Silver moving up, it looks like I won't have enough now. Do I wait...or does this look like a strong, permanent rise ?

nuslvrkwen
1st July 2008, 14:57
I was sad it was at $17.4+ yesterday. I wondered how long the consumer would continue to put up with the talking head sound bytes' excuses as to why things were as lousy as they are! It's great to be making money on my physical holdings now. Even if it goes down tomorrow today feels great.

The headlines really are driving how people react to the market. Truck and SUV sales have plummeted! Aren't you crying? More and more cities are starting those rent a bike one way programs. Actual gasoline usage is down in the US, and the price is still rising. Those pesky speculators....

They haven't heard the latest rhythm from that new hit sensation: The Quickening!

JesterJay
1st July 2008, 16:11
2 things I know for sure about silver prices:
1. They go up.
2. They go down.
You will probably have another chance and $17/oz silver. But, it will probably be a short window of opportunity. So be ready.
Don't jump yet- but be ready to!
JesterJay



I had borrowed money against my retirement fund to buy about 1,400 ounces, but I haven't received my check yet. With Silver moving up, it looks like I won't have enough now. Do I wait...or does this look like a strong, permanent rise ?

hiyosilver
1st July 2008, 22:18
I kinda doubt you'll see any flat line patterns on the chart when the "powers" lose control. (except when markets are closed of course) Until then count on dips for buying opportunities.

balou2
1st July 2008, 23:14
Both JesterJay and Hiyosilver are right. Just look at the last 4 weeks in silver major spikes up, then major dips down. These are not corrections, rather just fluctuation. As for purchasing, I recommend the following:


Determine WHY you are buying whatever you're buying
Is it long term or short term?
Do NOT under any circumstances start freaking on a daily incline or decline on the charts.
If you're truly convinced in a commodity, price is darn near irrelevant (see 2nd entry)


Bottom line, you gotta pick your time. It's all a bit risky. We could never see silver drop under $18 again. On the same token, it could be back at $16 next week.

Interesting article posted here (http://www.kitco.com/ind/nadler/jul012008A.html) that offers speculation on the second half of '08. Projections are seeing both gold and silver decline slightly over the next 6 months. BUT...as one article says one thing, another will say the contrary.

Double bottom line...buy when you're ready to buy.

TTAZZMAN
2nd July 2008, 00:17
Maybe I misread the chart, but the 200 day average is decreasing, which is often a signal of a trend. It's very typical this time of year to see metals slide before the autumn period. Either way, we damn near hit 16.50 today, and still might.

you missread the chart.....200day silver is on a steady up line (i have no idea how it could be read wrong)

here is a link to a good silver chart

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$silver,uu[m,a]dahlnyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][ilb14!lh14,3!la12,26,9]

actually the 200dma is approaching spot price which is extremely bullish

hiyosilver
2nd July 2008, 01:01
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$silver,uu[m,a]dahlnyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][ilb14!lh14,3!la12,26,9]

actually the 200dma is approaching spot price which is extremely bullish

After accessing this chart (copy and paste TTAZZMAN's address above into a new browser window), update it with the bollinger bands included. To do this, scroll down to OVERLAYS, choose the third position, then choose bollinger bands from the drop down list, then click update....... The 200 day MA, and the lower bollinger band have met. Then look what happened the last time this occured....:).....but MOONBEAM, this basically says there's only a 5% chance of it going down very much for awhile....:(.....I'd definitely take advantage of the next dip...

Argentum
2nd July 2008, 07:24
Yup, the 200 dma is increasing.

Also, with making a long term decision to purchase metals, it's not prudent to make singular large purchases, but rather smaller multiple buys. This becomes even more critical the more volatile a commodity is.

For example, if you have $10,000 to invest, I would perhaps make five buys of $2,000 instead of two at $5000.

the_moonbeam
2nd July 2008, 08:36
I've buying small chunks for the last 15 years, and expect to hold what I have without regard to the short term fluctuals. But I came to the conclusion that my retirement fund has a bunch of money in it that I could be better off putting some in PMs. Since I'm not penalized for loans, and I can pay back with dollars that are losing value - I figured to stash some metal. At the $16-$17 range, I had it all figured out how I was going to disperse it (all silver - no gold), but over $18.00 spot just killed my plans. I can't get a good price buying small $2K chunks - and hadn't considered that approach. As Forest says, "I'm not a smart man" - and this post is quite valuable. I just get a bit unnerved when I get a chance to buy and there's a slight movement up. Like...is this the first wave of the tsunami, and I'm still on the beach ?

the_moonbeam
2nd July 2008, 10:17
Why buy in $2,000 chunks ?
Is it to avoid red-flashing lights alerting "Big brother" ?

Argentum
2nd July 2008, 11:08
The 2k/10k investment was just an example to show how one might divide up a single purchase. You all have individual situations that can greatly change how best to do this. The smaller multiple purchases are just a way to dollar cost average.

In my sitch, I have 50k to work with. So I will be buying in 10k lots. Now keep in mind, I might do some weighted averaging in which case if I would see the spot drop below $17 I would then make a 15k purchase and then in a few days buy another 5k.... I'm sort of betting that the price don't drop and apply more funds on a drop. BUT I don't plow everything into one purchase. In the long run, which is what we are talking about, this is an easy way to keep your head and heart from spinning about - you have to sleep at night, feed the kids, pet the dog, and in general live life. And don't forget that this is fun stuff here. Silver is going up, we have solid movement, so jump on in, the water is FINE!

Argentum
2nd July 2008, 11:18
Moon, I do keep BB in the back of my mind. If I make say a 15k buy, I will break it up into smaller lots. Most company's will work with you and as long as a total purchase is over said min, they give ya the break on fee/shipping/handling etc. Some don't report under 10K, so just give a polite question when ordering and such. Everyone in this business is well aware that keeping a low pro is important. Also many state tax laws are quite different.

However, that being said. WE HAVE A RIGHT TO INVEST. It's not illegal, nor underhanded, and I will not let anyone alter my program if I get a solid deal on a large order.

the_moonbeam
2nd July 2008, 11:54
Understand...thanks

hiyosilver
2nd July 2008, 18:11
Alot of times CPAs are more knowledgeable about financial activities than even many attorneys are. Perhaps consult one about what type of activity alerts the Fed. My thinking is ten thousand or above movements in a 30 day period.

Trvlr45
2nd July 2008, 21:53
One thing I can add here as far as what the Fed is watching. When they passed the Patriot Act there is legislation in it that has to do with "Stucturing". Your bank is now under orders by the Fed to watch your bank account and when they notice any big difference in the way the money flows in and out of it they have to report it to the Feds. That is how they caught Spitzer in New York.

In addition to that, the Mortage Bailout Bill the Senate is debating over right now has legislation slipped into it by Christopher Dodd of Conneticut requiring credit card companies to report ALL purchases to the Federal government. They say it will help the IRS bring in more revenue.

Personally, I thought they were already monitoring credit card purchases and data basing the info but if the Mortage bill passes then I'm sure that little known piece of legislation will be in with it.

Doing anything anonymously is getting to be just about impossible these days. Goodbye fourth and fifth ammendments.

balou2
4th July 2008, 19:18
Gonna bump this back to the top. Anybody have projections for this Monday? Historically, if my understanding is correct, PM prices often dip after a holiday. Today's spot fluctuation was the least we've seen in months, largely due to the holiday, so do you expect to see prices increase or decrease when the market opens for Monday? I'm preparing my $$ now.

JesterJay
4th July 2008, 23:29
Indeed, I do expect prices to increase or decrease. Exactly.
I agree with you. Up.
Or down.
That is what we will see.
$20/oz. by the end of July,
JesterJay



Anybody have projections for this Monday? ...so do you expect to see prices increase or decrease when the market opens for Monday? I'm preparing my $$ now.

balou2
5th July 2008, 18:21
Yep. I see a weak out of the box action for the early-open, then increased action during the day. Gonna try and get in early.

balou2
6th July 2008, 21:02
Gettin' the wallet out of the pocket. Early trading is showing possible dips in to the $17's. Keeping my fingers crossed!

balou2
7th July 2008, 19:45
Gettin' the wallet out of the pocket. Early trading is showing possible dips in to the $17's. Keeping my fingers crossed!
Lovely day today! Hit it at the low. Love it.

Argentum
7th July 2008, 20:30
Me thinks this is getting to be TOO much of a pattern.... But what the heck, found time to bag two 10 oz'ers

balou2
7th July 2008, 22:11
Me thinks this is getting to be TOO much of a pattern.... But what the heck, found time to bag two 10 oz'ers

Absolutely agreed. While I think we'll see $20 this year, I believe there will be a tremendous amount of oscillation between the $16.50-$18.50 range. For those of us that are long-termers, it's relatively moot anyway. Just lookin' for the best peaks and valleys. Got a cool 140 today myself!

balou2
13th July 2008, 01:47
Alright...a banner week last week. Where do we go this week? Your thoughts and predictions?

I've held at my thoughts that we will see resistance at $19-$19.50 for a months, but there is not a lot of news floating around that would lead me to believe we're ready for the decline. I've slowed purchases, slightly, as I think we have another dip in the coming months...just not sure when.

Drumblebum
13th July 2008, 03:19
Alright...a banner week last week. Where do we go this week? Your thoughts and predictions?

I've held at my thoughts that we will see resistance at $19-$19.50 for a months, but there is not a lot of news floating around that would lead me to believe we're ready for the decline. I've slowed purchases, slightly, as I think we have another dip in the coming months...just not sure when.

It will break 20 this week, as gold will touch and pass 1000...

clr8ter
13th July 2008, 10:07
I think we hould change the thread name to Monday Bounce.....Ended stronger thanI expected Friday, I think we will have another good week. Still, I wish it would make one last drop to 16, so I can buy another MB.

Irons
13th July 2008, 16:55
I think we are in for a mean monday thump, I hope I'm wrong.This not the time of year for a strong PM market but we are getting one!
My wife unit and I planned on buying another 10oz of gold bars this summer but the prices never really did the major May drop like they used too.:confused:
Up is good if you are already sitting on a pile of metal!;)

pkrebaum
13th July 2008, 23:49
we're gonna get thumped.
Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae Nationalization / Bailout Plan Announced:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNHPA3k7pAAQ&refer=worldwide

Apparently they thought it important enough to announce on a Sunday, because without it Wall Street was going to have a super Meltdown Monday.

Yet another rabbit out of the hat to stave off the demise of the dollar and the collapse of Wall Street..... if the USDX trends upward Monday/Tuesday then expect an attack on Gold & Silver.

balou2
14th July 2008, 00:37
Who the heck can predict anymore, though I do agree. To break a story on Sunday like that is "protection" against an already volatile market, though I don't think it'll go very far. I'm still calling resistance at $19.50, but early morning trading has already seen a few spikes, so I'm back at "who the heck knows".

hiyosilver
14th July 2008, 01:31
yep, I expected them to pull off something....but I still don't think they're done. It goes higher than Ben and Georgie....the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund dictate it all.

skijake
14th July 2008, 01:39
When do these guys run out of ammo or are they like Dracula? Good grief!!!

Irons
14th July 2008, 16:25
Who the heck can predict anymore, though I do agree. To break a story on Sunday like that is "protection" against an already volatile market, though I don't think it'll go very far. I'm still calling resistance at $19.50, but early morning trading has already seen a few spikes, so I'm back at "who the heck knows".

You and me both, it has gotten impossible to call this market!
Up is good!:grin:

JesterJay
14th July 2008, 16:31
Volatility, unpredictability, perhaps even flamability will come with the silver market from here on out.
OOOOOO- I can hardly wait!
Please pass the p0pc0rn,
JesterJay




Who the heck can predict anymore, though I do agree. To break a story on Sunday like that is "protection" against an already volatile market, though I don't think it'll go very far. I'm still calling resistance at $19.50, but early morning trading has already seen a few spikes, so I'm back at "who the heck knows".

You and me both, it has gotten impossible to call this market!
Up is good!:grin:

amadeus
14th July 2008, 18:16
Anyone else hear about this?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080714/wl_canada_nm/canada_indymac_col;_ylt=AgjVP0t6NO5MUi0.0DY7ZxbmWM cF

Aparently there's been a huge run on IndyMac Bank, $1.3 billion in deposits withdrawn over the past 11 days. Look at the pictures. Insane.

hiyosilver
14th July 2008, 19:01
The thing about investing in physical silver though is it's a win/win situation. Up is good, down is good.

averagejoe
14th July 2008, 19:20
Man I wish now I had cashed in all my CD's before this run up even if I do have a year left on them. Taht's going to be chump change to what I'm missing out on now DANG!