View Full Version : Red Alert: Rbs Market Crash Soon!! Read This Now!

strongman shelford
18th June 2008, 07:43



THIS YEAR, WE FIGHT IN HELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :p (300 movie)

Strongman Shelford - 2008

RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 7:40am BST 18/06/2008

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The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.

"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.

A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.

RBS warning: Be prepared for a 'nasty' period
Such a slide on world bourses would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century.

More by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
More on banking
RBS said the iTraxx index of high-grade corporate bonds could soar to 130/150 while the "Crossover" index of lower grade corporate bonds could reach 650/700 in a renewed bout of panic on the debt markets.

"I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names.

"Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," said Mr Janjuah, who became a City star after his grim warnings last year about the credit crisis proved all too accurate.

RBS expects Wall Street to rally a little further into early July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out, and the delayed effects of the oil spike inflict their damage.

"Globalisation was always going to risk putting G7 bankers into a dangerous corner at some point. We have got to that point," he said.

US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both face a Hobson's choice as workers start to lose their jobs in earnest and lenders cut off credit.

The authorities cannot respond with easy money because oil and food costs continue to push headline inflation to levels that are unsettling the markets. "The ugly spoiler is that we may need to see much lower global growth in order to get lower inflation," he said.

"The Fed is in panic mode. The massive credibility chasms down which the Fed and maybe even the ECB will plummet when they fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation will combine to give us a big sell-off in risky assets," he said.

Kit Jukes, RBS's head of debt markets, said Europe would not be immune. "Economic weakness is spreading and the latest data on consumer demand and confidence are dire. The ECB is hell-bent on raising rates.

"The political fall-out could be substantial as finance ministers from the weaker economies rail at the ECB. Wider spreads between the German Bunds and peripheral markets seem assured," he said.

Ultimately, the bank expects the oil price spike to subside as the more powerful force of debt deflation takes hold next year.

18th June 2008, 10:36
The follow-up article is almost as interesting


strongman shelford
18th June 2008, 14:25
WELL DONE BALOU! and from the same media source!



18th June 2008, 16:57
June 18, 2008
RBS warns of new stock market crash

by Brian Turner
RBS warns of new stock market crash

Bob Janjuah, senior credit analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has warned of a potential new stock market crash this Autumn.

According to Janjuah, he expects to see the economic stimulus package in the US continue to help the Dow Jones rally until July.

After that period, he expects inflationary pressures to effectively “paralyse” the ability of central banks in the US and Europe to help support current financial markets.

This is due to a Hobson’s Choice, a paradox where although more than one option may be presented, only one is a realistic choice. In this instace, of allowing inflation to run rampant, or else try and keep the lid on it by not lowering interest rates.

The prediction sees investment strategies become risk averse, in order to counter inflationary pressures which would otherwise erode the value of existing investments.

The result would be a sell off of equities and commodities and a massive influx into cash and bonds.

Already the FTSE 100 is down almost 100 points this morning, with banking shares especially hit, and there is already a sharp rally in progress for gold and platinum.

While Bob Janjuah’s predictions remain speculative, his prediction last year of a collapse in the credit markets - which led to the Credit Crunch - means his commentary carries a lot of weight in the city.

Earlier this week a review by Standard Chartered of their Asian client base has also found a preference for cash and risk aversion to stocks and shares.

Additionally, analysts have also reported concerns over the possibility of a rate rise from the ECB this July, which could further weaken the dollar - further adding to oil prices.

18th June 2008, 17:04
I might add that this is a FINE TIME to be adding to your silver holdings. I read articles like this and KNOW it's the right thing to do. At a shade over $17 an ounce, THIS IS A GREAT OPPORTUNITY in insure your future. Don't be left standing at the station. The time to act IS NOW!!