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main1event
2nd March 2010, 07:46
I remember when this board used to get excited about days like this, when gold was breaking out. This serves as a testament to how bearish people have become on the metals, which is extremely bullish.

We are currently right at the do or die spot for gold, the chart seems extremely bullish so I'd have to say we are probably going to take off on the launch pad. If we can take this area out we should new highs in gold in a very short period of time. I believe we could even see Silver move up over $1.00 in a day.

Lets cross our fingers and see if we can close above todays current highs and close at the highs of the day.

Manny2_0
2nd March 2010, 08:08
spending or some report comes out on friday, and it is not expected to be good..... That will be a decent day for comm.

However everthing I believed turned to be completely false once I got into silver ie

printing more money silver goes down
stocks go down silver goes down
gold stays stable silver goes down
Euro is f'ed up silver goes down

Fed showed intent to gradually raise rates, this can't be good for silver

I am thinking of cashing out 3/4th soon and come in big big in a two or three months, Besides the fact that my Rotty takes a crap pushes silver down, I don't expect a lack of excellent entry points.... I came in way to expensive (In Dec).... from what I am seeing

I learned a bit since then, like the bottom is not the bottom until it's been there for days

MasterQ
2nd March 2010, 08:33
spending or some report comes out on friday, and it is not expected to be good..... That will be a decent day for comm.

However everthing I believed turned to be completely false once I got into silver ie

printing more money silver goes down
stocks go down silver goes down
gold stays stable silver goes down
Euro is f'ed up silver goes down

Fed showed intent to gradually raise rates, this can't be good for silver

I am thinking of cashing out 3/4th soon and come in big big in a two or three months, Besides the fact that my Rotty takes a crap pushes silver down, I don't expect a lack of excellent entry points.... I came in way to expensive (In Dec).... from what I am seeing

I learned a bit since then, like the bottom is not the bottom until it's been there for days

Yeah sorry brother..I was in the same pickle. Called my loss at 16.50 when it didn't hold.

This is unprecedented when looking back even as recent as the last 3 years.

It seems to be following the 30 yr trend. Meaning this hasn't been the chart pattern for more than 30 years.

On the 30 yr chart pattern we do see pick up around May/June so your making the right call IMO.

I'll be there with ya when we see something between 13-14. Scotia was right about last years swings and it looks to be right this year. They are calling for a bottom at 13. With margin of error it could be just above or just below but certainly an excellent entry point.

I don't see where it would make sense fundamentally that we return to the $8-$11 days so at least that can be some what comforting.

Hell even if jobs get better and the economy grows, so does the demand for silver in the products.

Good luck to you manny and to us all!

-Q

main1event
2nd March 2010, 08:40
See now you guys make me almost giddy with excitement.

MasterQ
2nd March 2010, 08:58
I remember when this board used to get excited about days like this, when gold was breaking out. This serves as a testament to how bearish people have become on the metals, which is extremely bullish.

We are currently right at the do or die spot for gold, the chart seems extremely bullish so I'd have to say we are probably going to take off on the launch pad. If we can take this area out we should new highs in gold in a very short period of time. I believe we could even see Silver move up over $1.00 in a day.

Lets cross our fingers and see if we can close above todays current highs and close at the highs of the day.

Only because you appreciate a little TA as well I wanted to pass this along.

http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f94/mrqdesade/goldrally.jpg

Gold has been in a very bearish trend. With the 18 day holding as support after the cross the sentiment is short term bullish with looking towards 1131 to be taken out for marked 1st day trend reversal. Upper BB is sitting at 1142 and due to many factors in the market and lateness in the year I would suspect heavy resistance.

http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f94/mrqdesade/silverrally.jpg

Silver on the other hand is trying to be the little engine that could. It took out 16.30 only to fail and has been trying to recover since. This shows a hiccup in the pattern which is a little weaker than gold's.

Even though both metals are in a cross of the 18 day average it is hard to say we will be taking out this years highs just yet. I would look more towards the latter 1/2 of the year for this possibility. If your in trading I would be very nervous.

Just look at oil and the dollar index over the last week. Even the stock market hasn't been able to get a grip on itself. This demonstrates a lot of uncertainty in the market, if there ever truly is.

If your a stacker then buy the dips on the way down. With outlooks up to 20-23 this year you just can't go wrong. Those of us trying to trade are in really bad waters and I would suggest to sit on the sidelines just for a little while longer.

Good luck to us all!

-Q

Katwoman
2nd March 2010, 09:16
Excuse me Main but not everybody here is a bear. In fact, I consider myself to be the quintessential PM perma bull......that is at least until I see a meaningful reduction in the national debt say on the order of 50% (I do not mean relative to GPD) which is highly unlikely to occur in my lifetime.

I actually have been away for awhile and plus extremely busy at work lately to which has kept me from posting for the past few weeks. But that said, in truth I am not too excited about this move since it is really small given that there is now serious talk about the dangers of the national debt. I am looking forward to the later part of this year because right now most people do not think that 6% inflation is a problem and so I am expecting the coming upward moves will be much more exciting to witness as the government tries in to inflate its way out of this mess (Bernanke's talk about not monetizing debt is pure nonsense and we all know it) which will make this little blip look like just what it is a "blip".

Ardent Listener
2nd March 2010, 09:26
I'm certainly not a bear, but I'm not buying more silver at today's prices since I just came off two rather large buys during this past dip. If you want to classify me then classify me as a holder.... or perhaps better yet, broke. :D

Longhaul
2nd March 2010, 09:36
I'm broke too Ardent, all I got is silver to show for it.

nmreich
2nd March 2010, 10:22
Gold broke to the up side: 1131.15
Silver at: 16.79

DaleFromCalgary
2nd March 2010, 10:25
"I am thinking of cashing out 3/4th soon and come in big big in a two or three months, Besides the fact that my Rotty takes a crap pushes silver down, I don't expect a lack of excellent entry points.... I came in way to expensive (In Dec).... from what I am seeing"

If you want to day trade silver, then you will lose money because it is too volatile in the short range. If you hold onto your silver for the long-term, you will make money. Go look at the historical charts and imagine that you were fussing about the price of silver five or ten years ago. Those who panicked back then and dumped silver lost money. Those who held on are smiling today and have learned not to sweat the short-term fluctuations.

Manny2_0
2nd March 2010, 10:38
"I am thinking of cashing out 3/4th soon and come in big big in a two or three months, Besides the fact that my Rotty takes a crap pushes silver down, I don't expect a lack of excellent entry points.... I came in way to expensive (In Dec).... from what I am seeing"

If you want to day trade silver, then you will lose money because it is too volatile in the short range. If you hold onto your silver for the long-term, you will make money. Go look at the historical charts and imagine that you were fussing about the price of silver five or ten years ago. Those who panicked back then and dumped silver lost money. Those who held on are smiling today and have learned not to sweat the short-term fluctuations.

I am not looking to day trade, I look at the money I set aside for silver as something I don't need, more like a wager for me if it goes bust I won't loose much sleep over it

What I have set aside is about 15% of my money..... However I doubled my stake in the dip...... Which is slightly more that I would like to be, especially because silver is so so easily manipulated by the bad peoples....

BTW does anyone know when that meeting Ted Buttler mentions about the CFTC addressing deritatives takes place

Jake
2nd March 2010, 11:13
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Jake
2nd March 2010, 11:18
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Jake
2nd March 2010, 11:21
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of one mine
2nd March 2010, 11:24
I have always thought long term on silver cause sometimes its just to much in volitility short term is anybobys guess.

of one mine

Jake
2nd March 2010, 11:25
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Jake
2nd March 2010, 11:26
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Jake
2nd March 2010, 11:31
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Jake
2nd March 2010, 11:37
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nmreich
2nd March 2010, 12:07
Who among us doesn't think we'll see $25 silver in our lifetimes?

You forgot a zero there: $250 silver; at least. I'm thinking perhaps as high as $500.

Why so high? Because the dollar debt is as big as the sun.

Jake
2nd March 2010, 12:30
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LETMYSILVERGO
2nd March 2010, 14:16
Well...let's get to $25, then we'll talk about $50
Remember...an increase from 17 to $25 is a 47% increase
Gasoline is at about $3
I'd expect the avereage price of gasoline to be around $4.41 by then.
It may take longer than you think.
The best approach to predicting the future is to avoid it except where a conclusion can be made regarding the fundamental components that influence the direction.
As long as money printing exists to pay the interest on previous money printing (Monetizing debt), gold and silver will rise.

The question is: "Are we beyond the point, as was The Weimar Republic in 1922-23, of returning to fiscal discipline?"
If we are, then $100 silver $200 Silver or your $250 Silver could happen long term along with short term unpredictable moves in both directions.
However, if we throw out all the liberals in November and elect a responsible president in 2012 before Obama wrecks the country, our stability could return. It seems unlikely, but I suppose anything can happen. That's why holding metals is so important.

Maybe we can get "W" back for a 3rd time--- if he is not in jail for war crimes.