View Full Version : V-o-l-a-t-i-l-i-t-y

22nd February 2010, 09:01
Everyone say it with me!




(ok so it isn't the Mickey Mouse Club perfect fit but it works!)

After what seemed a consolidated move earlier last week, the trend TA wise was looking bullish as the 9 and 18 day were making their move. Today looks hopeful for the cross but I'm afraid as late as it is in the traditional trading sense we may only see the 1-1.50 move from the start of this move.

This began with our first pop in the channel at 15.80 so the move then could be 16.80 - 17.30 before breaking down for the season. This is strictly TA speaking but other economic events usually coincide with this move and I will try and analyze them for the next 7 - 10 trading days as well as the next 2-3 months.

16.80 is really going to be the tough one because after this then short pops above could be resistance getting heavy, overbought, and needing a correction in order to sustain upward movement back to the 18.90 range. This just doesn't look likely right now.

We tested our first low this year at 14.68 and I suspect that isn't going to be the lowest. We are only a little over 1.50 from it right now and the 30 yr cycle seems to be the one looked at by most TA analysts.

For your consideration then are the following.

1. Short term trading will profit you little and it would be better to keep tight stop losses with targets near the 16.80 range.
2. Long term trading is still very bullish with you sweating out some lows over the next few months.
3. If you are stacking I would wait for the next big drop since the 14.68 and double up whatever oz's you purchased before.
4. Long term target is still in the 21-23 range with HEAVY resistance in the 18.90-19.47 range.

This is still quite the volatile market everyone so do your due diligence. We are all here to offer advice, opinion, and conversation.

Call me crazy but I am wrestling with the idea that shorts would probably be coming in just as soon as we make approaches at 17. Those opportunities could net downward movements of 3-4 points or $3-4000/bar in profits.

I don't like shorting and think it is a terribly risky practice. With as strong as the fundamentals have been I would be very cautious.

For now I am still on the sidelines after taking the minor loss when we broke through 16.50. It was a wise decision then as we plummeted to 14.68 thereafter. So much volatility is making me a nervous trader so I think I will wait it out till we some more stability in the metal and some solid news globally.

Good luck to us all!


23rd February 2010, 07:58
The dollar and oil are at it again this morning.

http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f94/mrqdesade/dlr.jpgDOLLAR http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f94/mrqdesade/oil-1.jpgOIL

Overnight saw a continuation of the pattern from yesterday.

Tuesday's are known for their reversal down days and it looks to not disappoint today.

These two movements will support movements today in PM's throughout the day and be tied to them for the remainder of this cycle I'm afraid.

More to come....


23rd February 2010, 11:44
This is helping this move as well.



23rd February 2010, 15:01
This is helping this move as well.



I read it.
It is not a driver.
That story is actually cover for this move.

25th February 2010, 08:18
So caution has been very warranted no?

Even with the crossing this time, one has to consider time of year as well.

This is definitely going to be the narrowest of channels I have seen since trading year end 2008.

Get ready for some more buying opportunities on the way down stackers, and for you traders out there, try another coat of paint on the bathroom wall this time.

Pick up that book you haven't finished yet.

Finish that game you keep wanting to see the end of.

It's going to be a little while.


25th February 2010, 12:19