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Steadfast
18th February 2010, 12:09
Call me and Idiot or a GURU it matters very little to me.

I have found the best way to look at the market, to somewhat accurately predict the short-mid term prices, is for one to get training in Human Behavioral Reactions on a Macro scale. Understanding what Humans do in general when they freak out, or get too greedy, or are allowed to rob others unchecked, has been working pretty well for me.

However,
I have only been caught off guard once this year, when I did not understand a technical event that went down. For example, the extent of recent $3 drop in silver caught me off guard. Recently, I should have sold heavily at $18.50.
and bought in again at 14.60.

BUT noooo.

I thought it would only be $1.50 correction coming, (not big enough to counter physical premiums to buy back in) So, I held long, and only profit took by selling a small amount of silver... ( as some of you will recall)
You see, I underestimated how wide spread and extreme the "rapist naked short selling mentality" of the 4 banksters truly is/was, whenever a PM correction even hints at coming. basically I mis-applied "basic Human kindness" and "normal Human ethics" to bankers.
Bunch of downward manipulating sharks! :mad:

That's why I also look into the TA... They usually get the timing right.
but like me in that "$3 correction" the TA guys kept on getting surprised by the extent of the fall because they underestimated the basic human ravenous greed of the ETF Paper pushers.

Thus, I say to JAKE, don't be so hard on the TA guys because they have their part to play...
You must look at both the TA (for the timing) and common human greed/panic reaction (for the extent of the climb or fall) when trying to "guess" the market's moves with any accuracy.

Basically, when watching a world event going down:
Ask yourself what would I do if I was fabulously wealthy, addicted to day trading, and owned interests in this or that county or this or that failing market. ("where would I run and how would that effect Silver")
At the same time you also ask yourself if I was ten million common (yes, "ingnorant") blue collar workers, what events would freak me out enough to get me to invest my limitted extra saving into PM's or back into the market instead of buying beer. ("where would I spend my savings and how would that effect Silver") ei: think of the average chinese guy who just got the chance to buy gold, for the first time last year...and multiply that effect time a billion.
Finally, Apply the basic truth, that "If it is not "REAL" it cannot make money for long without a scam being attached to it", and "ALL SCAMS WILL FAIL eventually". ("How hard will it fall and how would that effect Silver")

Call me and Idiot or a GURU
but, That's how I do it...

And so far, it has worked pretty good...

Jake
18th February 2010, 13:24
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Steadfast
19th February 2010, 09:34
Jake,
I must respectfully disagree with you "blanket assesment" of Human Group Behavior being invalid as a means to understanding the market...

Here is yet another example of why I am right about this...

Just yesterday a dramatically bearish economic event happened which should have cause silver to plummet, and yet the market went sideways instead.

That’s why I say In these bazaar times “Sideways is the same as UP”!

You see, yesterday around 4:30pm, the fed raised their rates .5%... A huge bearish event!
This should have sent silver and gold into a week long tail spin… NOPE!
And I even said a s much late yesterday to a co-worker.

The Silver prices crashed for about 30 minutes, dropped 60 cents and hit the very solid NEW silver price floor of $15.60 and like a ball bouncing and rolling out, the price stopped falling and went sideways the remaining around $15.60… The Chinese woke up that morning and said “HAY, those idiot Americans dropped the price for us again! What a deal” and BOING silver shot back up to $16.10 so far today.

Thus, understanding Human Group Behavior, can help us understand the “whys” and even accurately guess the extent of the silver market’s moves.

Here is another example of Human Group (Greed based) Behavior helping us to understand the extent of the silver market’s moves.

I believe that the big ETF 4 bankster’s are desperate to manipulate down PM’s. (All of their “whys” I am not fully sure of, but I have my theories) The main point is that before China opened up PM’s to a Billion new investors, the “big 4” could easily do this by dumping paper on the market on a weekly basis. However if one looks at the running charts (kitco 24 hour spot chart) you can see that these manipulations are beginning to happen on a daily basis, with little effect, but to turn things sideways.

And in the process they are consistently Giving our physical gold and silver away at discount rates to our neighbor’s and yes, our enemies in the far east. Why because the folks in the East are not stupid enough to buy PM ETFs… No, unlike us, they buy only physical…

Thus, we are watching a daily raid in a one sided protracted financial war, waged openly upon the West by our enemies to the East. In ancient days raiders would cross the boarder and rip of sheep and cattle. Today these raiders are not after our worthless dollars but (like sheep & cows) today’s raiders are after something REAL, our true sovereign wealth, our Gold & Silver. YUP, we are experiencing daily financial raids come across our economic boarders, and as a nation “we” are not fighting it, but rather enabling it to happen. The big 4 say to China, "Here ya go! Yes we will be happy to drop that price for you, just as long as I personally don't loose my shirt keeping up my local scam..."

Here in the west and the USA, the big 4 banks are loosing every ounce of long term real Gold and Silver, just to maintain short control over their “paper profits” which have been sold to Western investors on the scam that all their EFTs are back by physical PMs... The big 4 are now utterly trapped in their own manipulative cycle of death! Why? Because now the price of PMs goes up faster then before, because there are 1 billion new Chinese investors buying only physical and there are more and more Westerners waking up and making calls to cash in their ETF’s for physical as well.

You see, Physical Metal which the big 4 bankers do NOT own must be acquired. Because, the the only way for them to maintain control over their naked paper sales and to cover their rear ends long enough to retire (not behind bars) is to get their hands on enough dwindling physical metal to meet their ever increasing physical Call demands on their fraudulent ETF paper. The only way to do this is to artificially hold down the physical PM price, by selling/dumping even MORE naked paper metals into the market! A classic Rip off Peter to pay Paul scenerio! Pretty stupid, huh? And as we can see the frequency of their manipulations are on the increase at an alarming rate!

Once again, when historically super bearish events only make silver bounce, and go sideways, “Sideways is the same as UP”!

So, if there is a bubble in the gold and silver market, it is a “Short Bubble” in the SLV and GLD ETF market… and soon it will pop! People will wake up to suddenly discover their paper silver and gold is only of good use in their bathrooms!
CRASH! Will go Gold and Silver!
FOR ABOUT 2 HOURS…. while all that ETF paper is being FLUSHED...

And then, for all those who hold physical, “KAAAABOOOM! off we go to the Moon and beyond.”

That’s why I say… at this time of ever more frequent manipulation…
“Sideways is the same as UP”!

Soooo, am I an idiot or a GURU,
for my beliefe in understanding Human Group Behavior and how it can predict the market...?

Jake
19th February 2010, 13:06
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Steadfast
19th February 2010, 14:32
Well, if you truly believe that you can trade the market based on anything including TA and/or News or Astrology, over the long term profitably, then post your trades and maybe we all can watch the fun!

No problem....

I do just that when I am about to pull the trigger...

The only thing is I am a "long term guy" so I pull the trigger to sell maybe once a year and only after I consult the good people here at this forum.

I hold long and trade short only when I can virtually gaurintee at least a $4.00 drop in prices.

And, because I am an "all in or all out" kind of guy as well,
When I do sell I sell EVERYTHING, and then buy back in with EVERTHING.
simply because I believe that if things are good enough to trade short why trade short only a little bit.

The only other time I sell is when the deal is so sweet in my direction that only a crazy man would pass it up.
for example: some of my ancient coin buying deals.

BTW: I do not believe in astrology... :rolleyes:

Another BTW: When silver was at $18.60
I believe it was Master Q who sold off 1000 oz of silver, useing TA, just before the correction hit.
hey...I just sayin... ;)

DaleFromCalgary
19th February 2010, 14:41
"the TA guys kept on getting surprised by the extent of the fall because they underestimated the basic human ravenous greed of the ETF Paper pushers."

They also keep forgetting that the Wall Street banksters know technical analysis just as well as they do. As I've said before, the basic problem with TA is that it assumes an honest market and no observer effect.

Steadfast
19th February 2010, 14:45
"the TA guys kept on getting surprised by the extent of the fall because they underestimated the basic human ravenous greed of the ETF Paper pushers."

They also keep forgetting that the Wall Street banksters know technical analysis just as well as they do. As I've said before, the basic problem with TA is that it assumes an honest market and no observer effect.

That's true too...

Jake
19th February 2010, 14:55
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charlie_dont_surf
20th February 2010, 07:03
Well, if you truly believe that you can trade the market based on anything including TA and/or News or Astrology, over the long term profitably, then post your trades and maybe we all can watch the fun![/QUOTE]

If you define trading as placing massive bets long or short trying to call every top or bottom using strict TA, then no, you can't be profitable over the long term.

However, if you are not afraid to go outside the physical market and use an ETF,Pool Account or Forex broker that offers silver you can, with a sensible trading plan, make handsome returns on an annual basis.

If there is any interest I will outline my plan and post my trades in real time to prove that it can be done.

silverheartbone
20th February 2010, 10:48
If there is any interest I will outline my plan and post my trades in real time to prove that it can be done.

Or you could just compete in the March 2010 SLV ETF stock trading contest and show your stuff.

charlie_dont_surf
20th February 2010, 11:30
Or you could just compete in the March 2010 SLV ETF stock trading contest and show your stuff.

Found your thread and read it over. Trying to make a profit in a 30 day window depends on pure luck. You need high volatility in that time frame and a margin account to sell shares short. Too risky and you'll eventually blow up your account. You can't let the market force you into action trying to meet a timeline.

Steadfast
20th February 2010, 12:18
Well I hope You Win.

Now---To Q...That "trade" was never posted in real time. He can say anything he wants. I can do that too... I can say I bought SLV last night. So What? Cred is about posting it so that an outside observer can verify it. Otherwise, the "trader" is just another fraud like Main or Q.

Nope, Q's 1000 ounce sell off was the same day he posted it.
So, I believe him.

I like Q, and I find his TA observations very helpful.
so please resist the urge to call him a "Fraud".

silverheartbone
20th February 2010, 13:07
Found your thread and read it over. Trying to make a profit in a 30 day window depends on pure luck. You need high volatility in that time frame and a margin account to sell shares short. Too risky and you'll eventually blow up your account. You can't let the market force you into action trying to meet a timeline.

Hey it's virtual training.

1) Profiting from trading a silver market is NOT PURE LUCK.
Unless your system is based on doing something like buying every third Thursday at 10 and selling the following Tuesday at noon.

2) There is always high volatility in SLV.

3) It is a very sophisticated simulation setup as a true margin account where one can sell short.

Seems to be an overly pessimistic view you have there.

charlie_dont_surf
20th February 2010, 13:56
Hey it's virtual training.

1) Profiting from trading a silver market is NOT PURE LUCK.
Unless your system is based on doing something like buying every third Thursday at 10 and selling the following Tuesday at noon.

2) There is always high volatility in SLV.

3) It is a very sophisticated simulation setup as a true margin account where one can sell short.

Seems to be an overly pessimistic view you have there.

My system does not depend on making money in 30 day chunks or shorting. That being said it sounds like fun to give the contest a try. I signed up using you as a referrer and am waiting confirmation. My trades will mirror what I do in my real accounts.

Jake
20th February 2010, 13:59
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silverheartbone
21st February 2010, 00:03
He's right heartbone. You'd have to believe that you can predict the future if you think you can guess effectively enough to improve on random chance while trying to overcome commish, spreads and slippage. And I didn't even take into account the human element of second-guessing and bailing too early or too late based on fear and greed. There is no "system" that can overcome random guessing. If you had such a system, why would you be here? Why would you even talk to us plebs?...You'd be sipping mai-tai's on the Riviera on your private 200 ft. yacht.

Jake, I believe that I can predict the future.
If I had such a system, but insufficient capital, just how would I make it to the Rivera? Only after a very long time.

I am learning what I can do with a virtual $100,000 margin account.
Realistically I could control a $10,000 trading account
so this $100K contest experiment is a ten times scale model of a possible reality.
With the except that the trading commissions will impact my profits one tenth as much as reality.
Can I beat the system?
At the minimum, like those Yale students, I'll probably achieve that 52% and feel victorious!
So far this month I started late and missed a short that I saw but was waiting for a higher entry point.
Then when I tried to catch a falling knife and got cut badly,
So I had to heal and therefore am only up 2.74% for the three weeks.
The account is sitting in cash over the weekend. ( I sure hope the dollar isn't devalued. ;) )

My goal is (in my wildest dreams?) this year to learn how to day trade and make 8% each month,
then I could double my cash in 10 months. (1.08)^9
If I can figure that out, then I am starting a trading account,
so I can use the proceeds of the remaining two months each year to fund silver stacking.

If I can't get comfortable trading the SLV, then I won't bother with a real account.

charlie_dont_surf
21st February 2010, 09:48
Silverheartbone,
Now that I've read your last post outlining your longterm plans, let me offer some friendly insight from someone who has been there, done that and has the scars to prove it.

Daytrading is a grinding, stressful endeavor with a low probability of consistent longterm gains. You have alot going against you.

1. 10K is not enough to properly fund a margin account and trade with acceptable risk.

2. Endless hours of screentime are required to develop a working system, take trades when they present themselves and monitor your system to make sure it is still viable.

3. If you are labeled a daytrader by your broker you will be required to close postions by end of day, pay interest on margin and pay higher capital gains tax.

4. SLV is a terrible daytrade choice. It's whippy and unpredictable intraday, lots of false breakouts and ignores intraday S/R levels consistently. Your stops will get hit alot. Death to your account by a thousand small cuts.
SP500 (SPY) and Nasdaq100 (QQQQ) are the choice of most successful daytraders.

That being said, you can make 50% or more returns with silver on an annualized basis with a simple long only swing trading system by scaling in when price is dropping and scaling out when price is rising.

Jake
21st February 2010, 12:21
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silverheartbone
21st February 2010, 13:39
Thanks charlie_dont_surf for your valuable insight. I'll strongly consider (study) your last recommendation about that long only swing trading system. It seems very reasonable. I have felt something like this in a commodity market should work. No fear of silver getting sued or going bankrupt.

So Jake it seems that you are classifying frequent stock trading along with playing the lottery, betting at the race track, and gaming at a casino. Is it really that bad?

argent_pur
21st February 2010, 14:09
Thanks charlie_dont_surf for your valuable insight. I'll strongly consider (study) your last recommendation about that long only swing trading system. It seems very reasonable. I have felt something like this in a commodity market should work. No fear of silver getting sued or going bankrupt.

So Jake it seems that you are classifying frequent stock trading along with playing the lottery, betting at the race track, and gaming at a casino. Is it really that bad?

I've read several books by fee-only financial planners who would agree with Jake that day-trading is mostly a fool's errand, and most people lose their shirts. The folks who ALWAYS win are the brokers who get the commissions. I read that during the tech bubble, many people quit their jobs to become day-traders and most of their careers lasted an average of six months.

I have two family members who were once quite wealthy who aren't anymore because they thought they could predict the future:(

Edit: I would add that if you have the cash to burn, go for it, but don't depend on it for your living. It's your money after all.

Jake
21st February 2010, 15:00
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silverheartbone
21st February 2010, 17:53
It's worse sometimes and it's better sometimes.
It's worse because you can't avoid taxes and regulations, spreads and commish
It's better when you randomly guess right, worse when you guess wrong.

I'd say, overall, it's worse.
The vig (or house advantage) is best at craps on the don't pass at 0.45% playing 3-4-5 odds. next best is anywhere between odds and no odds on the don't pass line in craps at up to 1.4% In between that range is Baccarat at 1.3% on the Bank Bet. then Blackjack with excellent count skills that will eventually get you thrown out at about 3%. Next is around 5.26% on Roulette

So...to sum it up:
Craps at 0.45% is a disadvantage of 50.55 vs. 49.45 house over player.
This doesn't vary if you stick to this one bet.

Trading ranges all over the place and can't be quantified.
I suggest you develop a system for playing craps.
No thanks. That is much too boring for me, and has a sinful image as well.
I am just trying to understand the paper silver web which has our favorite metal all entangled with banksters.
Check in on my (quixotic?) progress next month in the March SLV trading contest.
You don't have to be a guru to play. http://forums.silverseek.com/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif
The main prize would be forum fame and glory combined with extreme personal satisfaction.
Who knows, if you enter and win you might get a job offer from a brokerage! j/k

Jake
21st February 2010, 18:59
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silverheartbone
22nd February 2010, 11:20
{snip}you can make 50% or more returns with silver on an annualized basis with a simple long only swing trading system by scaling in when price is dropping and scaling out when price is rising.OK charlie_dont_surf, I've done my analysis on your system.

It makes sense if the trendline is flat to rising.

If the trendline is flat to falling, then the system should be reversed to short only swing trading system, scale in when price is rising and scaling out when price is dropping.

charlie_dont_surf
22nd February 2010, 20:34
OK charlie_dont_surf, I've done my analysis on your system.

It makes sense if the trendline is flat to rising.

If the trendline is flat to falling, then the system should be reversed to short only swing trading system, scale in when price is rising and scaling out when price is dropping.



Right now you have $16 of risk on the long side and unlimited risk on the short side. If you scale in on shorts when price is rising it may never drop enough to get out with a profit. Don't try to outsmart the market with fancy tactics. As a trader, I prefer silver to stay below $20. Why? I can build larger positions with tighter spacing than if it was at $50. My downside risk is reduced. There are ways to hedge for profit while you are building long positions when price is dropping without shorting. I do that at times to reduce drawdown.

Trendlines are subjective. Look at a 5min chart and compare it to the weekly chart. Which one is right at any given time?

of one mine
22nd February 2010, 23:50
I get a headache trying to follow all this T & A. I just like the shiny stuff no paper unless I need toilet paper. THis is not to mention I work for it but you have to wipe or blow your nose with something. Anyhow Like jake said theres so many things to push and pull it up or down. Sometimes only one thing can do it, Sometimes it may not even be related to the markets like acts of agression. or afganistan the threat from Iran. What would happen If Iran launched a nuke at Israel but missed or blew up mid air. Maybe that could cause the market to stop and listen to the radioactive wind. Well just saying anything could cause change in the markets.;)

Of one mine

Jake
23rd February 2010, 12:31
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Steadfast
11th March 2010, 11:26
So, if there is a bubble in the gold and silver market, it is a paper “Short Bubble” in the SLV and GLD ETF market… and soon it will pop! People will wake up to suddenly discover their paper silver and gold is only of good use in their bathrooms!
CRASH! Will go Gold and Silver!
FOR ABOUT 2 HOURS…. while all that ETF paper is being FLUSHED...

And then, for all those who hold physical, “KAAAABOOOM! off we go to the Moon and beyond.”

That’s why I say… at this time of ever more frequent manipulation…
“Sideways is the same as UP”!

Soooo, am I an idiot or a GURU,
for my beliefe in understanding Human Group Behavior and how it can predict the market...?
Guys, I know full well that I am not the sharpest tool in the shed...
Thus, I simply MUST give God the credit for giving me this insite...
Wow! Talk about market wisdom on loan from GOD!

Did I correctly identify the "paper bubble" or WHAT!?
It is soooo nice to have my little theories backed up later by the BIG GUYS!

check this out!
THE PAPER BUBBLE
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1268318450.php

Sooo, I ask you guys again:
Am I an idiot or a GURU...?

I vote "an idiot!'
but and idiot with GURU market wisdom on loan from GOD!
and THAT is good enough for me!

he he he.... ;)