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main1event
17th February 2010, 10:19
We are at a critical juncture. Gold is at its upper bollinger, silver is at its mid bollinger. The dollar has rallied back most of its losses from yesterday. The Dow is also just below its 50dma.

I'm just taking some profits off the table here. I also placed some short term bets on the downside with FAZ and SRS.

Hopefully gold can get above its 50dma for now.

If the Dow fails to hold this area and falls below 10k we are in some serious trouble. What I'm hoping for is some sideways trading over the next couple of days. That would be a great setup for a move higher. Until then we'll see.

MasterQ
17th February 2010, 11:01
If the Dow fails to hold this area and falls below 10k we are in some serious trouble. What I'm hoping for is some sideways trading over the next couple of days. That would be a great setup for a move higher. Until then we'll see.



The best in all of this is 14.68 being our low for the year and we just do some sideways 14/15 action till September with some minor 1-3% drops we have seen so far.

Nice to see we can agree sometimes. :)

-Q

main1event
17th February 2010, 11:19
Your time horizon is until Sept my attention span is about 30 seconds. lol

To be honest I really dont like the technical look of the market. The big investment banks like GS and JPM dont look very promising and the housing sector looks pretty beaten up.

I dont get it, many businesses are boarded up across America, there are plenty of for lease and sale signs. Not sure how the fed or anyone can get us out of this mess. No matter if jobs improve home prices are still expensive by historic means. Try finding a house that is 2 or 3x your income even at this juncture is hard to come by.

To stabilize this economy there would need to be over 1 million jobs created in the next 6 months, i just dont see that happening. So its print print print and hope something sticks.

Why dont they just let the price of commodities go up and then we can all get jobs mining.

Jake
17th February 2010, 11:40
We are at a critical juncture. Gold is at its upper bollinger, silver is at its mid bollinger. The dollar has rallied back most of its losses from yesterday. The Dow is also just below its 50dma.

Hopefully gold can get above its 50dma for now.

If the Dow fails to hold this area and falls below 10k we are in some serious trouble. What I'm hoping for is some sideways trading over the next couple of days. That would be a great setup for a move higher. Until then we'll see.

If the price goes up to this level it goes to the moon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(Note that I used Multiple Exclaimation Points)
If the price goes down to this level it'll drop like a stone!!!!!!!!!

If we don't get to this or that CRITICAL JUNCTURE, we're in SERIUOS TROUBLE!
If it can't hold this critical support, all bets are off!!!

If we can get past this CRITICAL resistence, then smooth sailing ahead!
If we can't hold this CRITICAL SUPPORT, LOOK OUT BELOW!

If the market can break out above this resistence, then the uptrend is intact!
If the market can't hold out above this support, then the market will have further downside to go.

If we can just get to this critical point, the price is going to EXPLODE!
If we can't hold this critical 200 day MA, we may be in for some downside action.

If this Moving Average is broken, it might go up, then again, it might go down.
If this Moving Average can hold, it might go up, then again, it might go down.
Until then, we'll just have to wait and see--This TA stuff is hard.

If this uptrend is real, the market is ready to TAKE OFF and make new highs!
If this bounce fades, we may not see new highs for the rest of the year!

People---I just noticed something!---If you draw a line from my navel to my nose, it really looks stupid with my shirt off at the beach!

This market action is just too difficult to use TA right now, The big boys are in control! I'm going to flee the country and study botany in the fiji islands.

BLAH BLAH BLAH

Steadfast
17th February 2010, 12:40
That's why I say...in crazy market times "sideways is the same as up"...

2009's silver floor was $12.50.
It looks to me that the new silver floor is now $16 - $15.50...

Everything in our economy (i mean everything) is simply re-setting at this new floor, for another 2009 performance. (or better, depending on how fast things unravel.)

Look guys:
The basics of why Physical Silver is a great investment value, still have not changed.

The basics of why market derivatives always eventually turn into toxic debt,still has not changed.

The basics of why the unchecked greed of men always brings them to their own destruction, still has not changed.

The fact that basics of the well positioned meek always inheriting the earth, still has also not changed.


By the time the Obama-nation is out of office our economy will be known as the Jimmy Carter economy but with his misery Index multiplied by the third power!
Why? Because the basics are still basic reality, and they hit hard, no matter how long lies may delay them.

At that same time, this present PM paper manipulation will have exploded in COMEX's and the big four bankster's faces.
I even see jail time in JP Morgan's (et al's) futures.
Why? Because the basics are still basic reality, and they hit hard, no matter how long lies may delay them.

And all this speculative panic, will seem foolish as we sail into the high $60.00 range. :rolleyes:
Why? Because the basics are still basic reality, and they hit hard, no matter how long lies may delay them.

In Fact, the longer the delay extends, due to the lies, make the basics hit exponentially harder when they do hit.

I just hope bread is not $5.oo or more A LOAF at that same time...

MasterQ
17th February 2010, 13:05
Main and stead, ya'll are spot on.

Perhaps I am being a little too technical. In a way I am also being a little over cautious.

Seeing the dollar eat all its losses is interesting and even more a demonstration of how volatile these markets are.

TA wise, with the 9 and 18 day holding as they are with the movement remaining in the channel, it is becoming a bullish pattern to get us out of this downward trend. I just don't like the time of year with how historically these numbers have moved outside of micro and macro economic events.

Greece seems to be on a 30 day reprieve so any bullish movement may extend into March but that could be it till after the summer.

If the 9 day let alone the 200 day remain intact for support then we could see 1.50 movement on this leg. I'm just trying to have the confidence meanwhile.

Trading has not been what it used to be and the breakdown in January hasn't been seen for 30 years. Just has to make you think.

-Q

Jake
17th February 2010, 13:20
That's why I say...in crazy market times "sideways is the same as up"...

Look guys:
The basics of why Physical Silver is a great investment value, still have not changed. I just hope bread is not $5.oo or more A LOAF at that same time...

I condensed your statement for comment.

You are right, and bingo, you get the prize for summing it up so succinctly.
There is no PREDICTING the short term, but there is a REALITY that our country cannot avoid. The eventual demise of the FIAT-BASED system. The last time I checked, this isn't a SILVER-TRADING FORUM. We all know the inevitable and thank you for pointing it out again.

Unfortunately, if silver goes to $60, it will be the result of continued upward price movement that we've already witnessed either first hand or in past references before we were born. As metal prices rise, the prices of other "things" go higher too.

Estimating the AVERAGE price of something like a loaf of bread is difficult in the short term as it is part of the "Volitile Food and Energy Complex".

However, I wouldn't be surprised if a loaf of bread maintains it's current ratio and becomes $20 once silver gets to $60. This isn't a prediction, it's the reality of inflation. This is why the govt removes the "volitile food and energy" components from the CPI.

Therefore, your "profits" on the rise of silver will allow you to maintain your buying power, on average, and nothing else.

The only way to surpass the benefits of silver's ability to maintain buying power is to accept risk. And we all know, those who accept risk like Main and Q are taking a bath by pissing into a fan.

maic
17th February 2010, 13:21
Thanks main, your post made me reconsider my positions. Switched G from long to short at 1119

And now I am a happy man :)

maic
18th February 2010, 03:38
Thanks main, your post made me reconsider my positions. Switched G from long to short at 1119

And now I am a happy man :)

... and back to long at 1103

What is Truth?
18th February 2010, 05:28
Main, when you post a thread like this you might want to explain that you are referring to the paper silver market and its short term price movements. Newbies might think that you are talking about long term physical stacking plans. Not that many of us wouldn't love to buy more at a deep discount, but like Jakes says, no one knows what the market will do.

MasterQ
18th February 2010, 08:19
Main, when you post a thread like this you might want to explain that you are referring to the paper silver market and its short term price movements. Newbies might think that you are talking about long term physical stacking plans. Not that many of us wouldn't love to buy more at a deep discount, but like Jakes says, no one knows what the market will do.

Please refrain from quoting trolls on this forum. It only feeds their hunger to be an asshole.

Anyone can guess the words coming out of his mouth, you don't need to repeat them.

Thank you

-Q

Steadfast
18th February 2010, 10:00
Please refrain from quoting trolls on this forum. It only feeds their hunger to be an asshole.

Anyone can guess the words coming out of his mouth, you don't need to repeat them.

Thank you

-Q

OUCH! ha ha ha ha

Jake
18th February 2010, 11:00
Main, when you post a thread like this you might want to explain that you are referring to the paper silver market and its short term price movements. Newbies might think that you are talking about long term physical stacking plans. Not that many of us wouldn't love to buy more at a deep discount, but like Jakes says, no one knows what the market will do.

Thank You WIT, But Main can't help it. He must continue to "predict things" in an attempt to tell everyone after the fact that "see, I'm good" if his guess was right. Some new-comers in here might think he knows something. But of course we know that he's just trying to guess things. When his guesses are right by random chance, we're supposed to praise him for being so smart.

http://images.clipartof.com/small/5759-Woman-Flipping-A-Coin-Into-The-Air-Clipart-Illustration.jpg
He's not really trading this stuff. Think about it for a moment. If you were really trading and living through the ups and downs of trying to guess the future, would you post it?

Who cares?---I know of no real traders who post what they're doing if they REALLY trade. For What?---EGO?...For the benefit of others? BS!

Main and Q post this insanity because they want others to tell them how wonderful they are if they guess right. We all know that attempting to devine the future using powers "Beyond Those Of Mortal Men" is impossible except for SUPERMAN!

Jake
18th February 2010, 11:11
Please refrain from quoting trolls on this forum. It only feeds their hunger to be an asshole.

Anyone can guess the words coming out of his mouth, you don't need to repeat them.

Thank you

-Q

Please Refrain From Quoting Gurus. Q is still "Perplexed About the Difficult TA!!
---"It's So Hard!"---We all Know What Flows From Their Mouths. It only feeds
their hunger to be a GURU.
http://images.travelpod.com/users/suzyinbenin/beninpc.1085172480.dsc00727.jpg
Anyone can guess the words coming out their mouths,
A bunch of Insane Gobbledigook about RSI's Going To
Bed With Stochastics and Bollinger Bands Sounding The
Trumpets For The Arrival Of Superman!

Thank You

main1event
18th February 2010, 11:36
I hate to resort to childish behavior but since everyone is picking on the troll

http://i450.photobucket.com/albums/qq225/main1event/ingore.png

Jake
18th February 2010, 11:52
I hate to resort to childish behavior but since everyone is picking on the troll

http://i450.photobucket.com/albums/qq225/main1event/ingore.png

Still Losing Your Ass Trading?
All Wet From Pissing Into A Fan All Day?

Steadfast
18th February 2010, 11:57
Call me and Idiot or a GURU it matters very little to me.

I have found the best way to look at the market, to somewhat accurately predict the short-mid term prices, is for one to get training in Human Behavioral Reactions on a Macro scale. Understanding what Humans do in general when they freak out, or get too greedy, or are allowed to rob others unchecked, has been working pretty well for me.

However,
I have only been caught off guard once this year, when I did not understand a technical event that went down. For example, the extent of recent $3 drop in silver caught me off guard. Recently, I should have sold heavily at $18.50.
and bought in again at 14.60.

BUT noooo.

I thought it would only be $1.50 correction coming, (not big enough to counter physical premiums to buy back in) So, I held long, and only profit took by selling a small amount of silver... ( as some of you will recall)
You see, I underestimated how wide spread and extreme the "rapist naked short selling mentality" of the 4 banksters truly is/was, whenever a PM correction even hints at coming.
Bunch of downward manipulating sharks! :mad:

That's why I also look into the TA... They usually get the timing right.
but like me in that "$3 correction" the TA guys kept on getting surprised by the extent of the fall because they underestimated the basic human ravenous greed of the ETF Paper pushers.

Thus, I say to JAKE, don't be so hard on the TA guys because they have their part to play...
You must look at both the TA (for the timing) and common human greed/panic reaction (for the extent of the climb or fall) when trying to "guess" the market's moves with any accuracy.

Basically ask yourself what would I do if I was fabulously wealthy, addicted to day trading, and owned interests in this or that county or this or that failing market. ("where would I run and how would that effect Silver")
At the same time you also ask yourself if I was ten thousand common income workers, what events would freak me out enough to get me to invest my limitted extra saving into PM's or back into the market. ("where would I spend my savings and how would that effect Silver")
Finally, Apply the basic truth, that "If it is not "REAL" it cannot make money for long without a scam being attached to it", and "ALL SCAMS WILL FAIL eventually". ("How hard will it fall and how would that effect Silver")

Call me and Idiot or a GURU
but, That's how I do it...
and it has worked out pretty ok for me, so far.

Sakata
18th February 2010, 11:57
I hate to resort to childish behavior but since everyone is picking on the troll

http://i450.photobucket.com/albums/qq225/main1event/ingore.png

I think a lot of us see that same. He can't even spell his name right. He has an "a" instead of an "o".

MasterQ
18th February 2010, 13:34
Oh this thread has taken a whole other meaning.

Laughing my ass off anyway.

:)

/ahem...

Ok childish crap over with...now back to our discussions...

Looking at the USD Index today it had a whipsaw so hence the whipping in silver.

It is making it painfully obvious they are tied to each other once again in these past few days.

I would seriously keep an eye as I have mentioned in my other thread.

Good luck to us all!

-Q

Jake
18th February 2010, 13:41
Oh this thread has taken a whole other meaning.

Laughing my ass off anyway.

:)

/ahem...

Ok childish crap over with...now back to our discussions...

Looking at the USD Index today it had a whipsaw so hence the whipping in silver.

It is making it painfully obvious they are tied to each other once again in these past few days.

I would seriously keep an eye as I have mentioned in my other thread.

Good luck to us all!

-Q


OK BIG SUPERMAN---I challenge you to posting a real-time trade.
Tell us when you entered and what the price of silver is at the time.
Tell us what your target and stop is.
After the silver price moves, we'll see if you know how to predict the future.

BTW---How much money have you still got in your trading account?
Have you written a check to cover your losses again?
Wet from pissing into a fan?

Note to any newcomers in here...NEVER FALL INTO THE TRAP OF LISTENING TO THESE FRAUDS---YOU WILL LOSE YOUR MONEY TAKING THEIR ADVICE.

Relayer
18th February 2010, 14:19
Over the last say 6-12 months, it has been extolled by many that volatility would be on the increase in all markets. A short look back on recent experience shows this to be true. In volatile markets TA (except in the very very short term time frame) is not useful for anticipating future trends. The trends become too short to extrapolate in time. On the other hand, the fundamentals (a long term view) are still looked at and relied on to give a sense of future direction. Thus you hear people with more confidence talking about the future price of this or that. That view assumes past character or characteristics of a market will stay in place, that is some specific fundamentals are not subject to short term changes and provides a sense of stabliity on which to forecast the future. Thus you hear people forecasting in a conservative way. IMO even this sense of reliability/dependabilty is somewhat misguided.

Whether its smoothing a volatile chart or using algorythms to predict the multiyear viability of a pension fund, adjusting to the reality of a situation must include the unexpected. IMO there exists the real possibility that in the near future, for a brief period of time (at least) chaos will reign. As those who have abandoned TA because of the lack of its reliability, so will the fundamentalist need to check their sense of stability at the door of reality.

Jake
18th February 2010, 14:34
Over the last say 6-12 months, it has been extolled by many that volatility would be on the increase in all markets. A short look back on recent experience shows this to be true. In volatile markets TA (except in the very very short term time frame) is not useful for anticipating future trends. The trends become too short to extrapolate in time. On the other hand, the fundamentals (a long term view) are still looked at and relied on to give a sense of future direction. Thus you hear people with more confidence talking about the future price of this or that. That view assumes past character or characteristics of a market will stay in place, that is some specific fundamentals are not subject to short term changes and provides a sense of stabliity on which to forecast the future. Thus you hear people forecasting in a conservative way. IMO even this sense of reliability/dependabilty is somewhat misguided.

Whether its smoothing a volatile chart or using algorythms to predict the multiyear viability of a pension fund, adjusting to the reality of a situation must include the unexpected. IMO there exists the real possibility that in the near future, for a brief period of time (at least) chaos will reign. As those who have abandoned TA because of the lack of its reliability, so will the fundamentalist need to check their sense of stability at the door of reality.

This assumes trading markets is a profitable endevour.
Are you really profitable overall trading metals?

Relayer
18th February 2010, 14:44
My post had very little to do with trading.....it was about the pyschology and methodology of forecasting.

Jake
18th February 2010, 14:44
My post had very little to do with trading.....it was about the pyschology and methodology of forecasting.

Ok Point Taken