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MasterQ
16th February 2010, 09:28
Outlook for this week TA wise looks decent yet I am still cautious.

Here is the charting up to this morning with a blip from a few early numbers.

http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f94/mrqdesade/d1cross.jpg

Last couple of days looks to be setting in the pin for this break in silver. Some consolidation in the mid 15's was either setting up for another leg down or stabilizing the metal.

We have our official 1st day of noise in the 9/18 day channel which sets us up to repeat the pattern the remainder of the next 5-7 trading days. Today is February 16th and we have about 2 weeks to try and recover such a painful crash.

Hope you and yours were able to secure some of the lower number stacks as most of us traders were waiting out the shark infested waters. Sure a few pigs were slaughtered but no one saw this initial downward leg so it made it quite difficult to make sure the butcher shop was closed.

With that in mind, I am still very cautious. One other scenario I have seen before, TA wise, is a run up into the channel for about a week or two but not taking out the prior high in the year until a month or so later. With the seasonal change in silver approaching it makes this type of scenario more likely and I hate so much sounding bearish.

The best in all of this is 14.68 being our low for the year and we just do some sideways 14/15 action till September with some minor 1-3% drops we have seen so far.

Other effecting events are oil and the dollar as usual. Though not always a connection, they usually have quite the influence on silver let alone gold. Yesterday saw sideways movement in the 74's for oil yet today it has gained traction and helping to boost silver's attraction by moving to 76 as of this posting.

With the brief touch of the USD index to 79 back on Feb 11th, we still have not seen that repeated through today so far. From hovering around 80.5 yesterday the dollar is down today slightly at 80.2, touching briefly to 80.1 but still holding in the 80's and that makes me even more cautious.

What has held the USD up so much? When other worlds economies and especially their currencies are in trouble we become some default move and until those global un rests or our own start to heat even more up with increased deficit spending etc. then this could keep the stall in for silver let alone gold.

Keeping TA and fundamentals in mind will help you and yours see where this could all be heading. I offer my opinion as it demonstrates itself to me free and clear. It is up to you to discuss and help us all understand good conclusions with thorough thought recognizing flaws and punching through adversities.

Good luck to us all and may the trolls stay at bay!

-Q

main1event
16th February 2010, 09:40
I love hearing bearish news. :) Thats typically when we get the biggest moves up :)

SilverMeTimbers
16th February 2010, 11:36
Thanks for the thoughts and work Q!

MasterQ
18th February 2010, 09:30
So...are we looking for a free fall in the dollar soon?

http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f94/mrqdesade/dlrff.jpg

Ate back all its losses and approaching 81...hmmm

New highs being made and getting ready to drop?

http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f94/mrqdesade/dlrresis.jpg

It has also been trading well above its 9 and 18 day averages. The RSI is registering above 60 so it is looking to have some sort of correction but it could only be back to the 9 day and launch forward. This could give a short term pop for the metals but it isn't looking good for the next few months.

I hope I'm wrong.

-Q

Jake
18th February 2010, 14:56
So...are we looking for a free fall in the dollar soon?

...hmmm

"it could" "This could"
I hope I'm wrong.

-Q

Babble Babble Babble.
So are you're wrong again or do you need to tweek your system?
Is your chart wet while you've been pissing into that fan?
Tell Us OOOOO GURU!---Do you have any money left in that trading account?
Do you Actually Trade?
When Are You Ever Going to Guess Right?
How many Guesses Do I Get Guessing When You'll Be Right?
I Only Need One...Never.

akak
18th February 2010, 15:00
Like moths to a flame ......

Jake
18th February 2010, 15:09
Like moths to a flame ......

AKAK---You of all people in here, who is very moderate in your posting, (Except for your advocation of anarchy), must admit:

If you're going to post some big Pronouncement like "the silver price will explode because of this TA phenomenon", that it's only fair to anyone especially newcomers that the self-appointed guru should be asked to post his trades in real time. Otherwise it's just a bunch of nonsense. All anyone has to do is follow these posts a few times and see they are just babbling BS about this and that "Prediction".

Any challenge or comment is met with SURPRISE or HOW DARE YOU! from the guru. The best example was BullionMaster, He put his money where his mouth is and turned me around, and I bet a lot of other people, right away.

akak
18th February 2010, 16:01
AKAK---You of all people in here, who is very moderate in your posting, (Except for your advocation of anarchy), must admit:

If you're going to post some big Pronouncement like "the silver price will explode because of this TA phenomenon", that it's only fair to anyone especially newcomers that the self-appointed guru should be asked to post his trades in real time. Otherwise it's just a bunch of nonsense. All anyone has to do is follow these posts a few times and see they are just babbling BS about this and that "Prediction".

Any challenge or comment is met with SURPRISE or HOW DARE YOU! from the guru. The best example was BullionMaster, He put his money where his mouth is and turned me around, and I bet a lot of other people, right away.

Jake, what makes you think I was referring to you --- or to just you?

Jake
18th February 2010, 16:07
Jake, what makes you think I was referring to you --- or to just you?

Ok...I stand Corrected...
My point is still valid

silverheartbone
19th February 2010, 11:13
Q remember when you impressed me with your nailing of the spot local minimum of $12.60 back last July?
As I recall you put it, a pivot point.

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag0365nyb.gif

Although you immediately doubted your own call,
I did not, and I gently chided you on not believing it.

If you consider the just past $14.90 minimum as a similar pivot event within the same trend,
wouldn't you expect a minimum of at least 10% up from here over the next six weeks?
Even more gain at some point during the next six months?

ccjoe
19th February 2010, 13:57
Real time
Just made 2 purchases
1 April call contract @ 18
1 May mini contract @16.44.
Downside is around 1800 and upside is way higher to keep it simple.

Jake
19th February 2010, 14:23
Real time
Just made 2 purchases
1 April call contract @ 18
1 May mini contract @16.44.
Downside is around 1800 and upside is way higher to keep it simple.

Hey Q and Main:
Even Joe Realizes the importance of putting his money where his mouth is.
Thank You Joe.
Please Turn Me Around on you Joe!
Inspite of your revealing your actual holdings of silver and what kind of a home you live in, which should never be discussed in an open forum, I never thought you were anything but a good contributor in here.

Now, that said, I hope your guess is Right!

ccjoe
19th February 2010, 17:17
Hey Q and Main:
Even Joe Realizes the importance of putting his money where his mouth is.
Thank You Joe.
Please Turn Me Around on you Joe!
Inspite of your revealing your actual holdings of silver and what kind of a home you live in, which should never be discussed in an open forum, I never thought you were anything but a good contributor in here.

Now, that said, I hope your guess is Right!

Thanks Jake, but it's mostly my broker, so if it's right, it's mostly him.

Jake
19th February 2010, 17:21
Thanks Jake, but it's mostly my broker, so if it's right, it's mostly him.

Now I'm confused---You're allowing some broker to make your financial decisions?---Like that guy who says, "Why Spoil the Fun" in those Scottrade Ads?