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View Full Version : Waiting for the next black swan event



DaleFromCalgary
7th February 2010, 13:52
Secret summit of top bankers
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/secret-summit-of-top-bankers/story-e6frez7r-1225827289543

"Representatives from 24 central banks and monetary authorities including the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank landed in Sydney to meet tomorrow at a secret location, the Herald Sun reports."

""This does feel like '08 and '07 all over again whereby we had these sort of little fires pop up and they are supposedly contained but in reality they are not quite contained,'' said H3 Global Advisors chief executive Andrew Kaleel.
"Dubai should have been an isolated incident and now we are seeing issues with Greece, Portugal and Spain.""

Dubai and the PIGS nations are not the black swan event we've been bracing ourselves for. All we know is that it will be sudden, and your paper investments will be repudiated by sudden rule changes for the good of us all.

AgShaman
7th February 2010, 14:04
And what was the most recent change?....didn't the debt ceiling just get raised on Fannie and Freddie. The "too big to fail" largesse with be the stake in the heart of the USD. Won't it be a special time in 2010 or 2011 for them to announce like Venezuela your dollars 50% devaluation overnight.

Time is running out.....good luck with redemptions of money markets and mutual funds....public lockdown will ensue....people will have no choice but to take their lumps for future bailouts. Arm resets will bog down their AIG's, Fannie's etc. people can walk away from these toxic mortgages all they want....the bill will get passed down regardless....tea party or not.

Curiosity will not kill the C/Kats of SS Nation!

aequitas
8th February 2010, 13:16
If any major creditor of the United States stops buying or starts reducing their holdings of Treasuries then it will be the beginning of the end. Not sure if this counts as a Black Swan since it is predictable and probably will happen eventually.

silversurfer1
8th February 2010, 13:35
Hey good posts here everyone. I too am bracing for "something" to happen and soon. Either some weird "emergency measures" with the economy or the Middle East to completely blow or both. Either way the stage is more than set. It's in the air thick as fog.

of one mine
8th February 2010, 13:48
What is a black swan, besides the redheaded stepchild?

aequitas
8th February 2010, 14:08
A black swan is an event that prior to happening was unpredictable or at least very difficult to predict that has major consequences. It refers to the fact that europeans thought all swans were white then went to Australia and found black swans, and thousands of years of empirical evidence was proven wrong.

China dropping the dollar would be a black swan to many because they think it is impossible or at least highly unlikely but to me its more a matter of when, not how or if.

Black Swan examples:

- Genghis Khan (europe didn't see that **** coming)
- 9/11 (who could have predicted the Iraq war prior to this happening)
- Black Plague (lead to renissance)
- Spanish Armada being sunk by bad weather
- Etc....

JimBo
8th February 2010, 16:27
I dont know if this qualifies as a black swan, but Korean old
currency worthless in trade for new currency. Poor north
koreans are now poorer yet, all that mattress is worthless.
Could other countries do this?

snowmansong
8th February 2010, 17:02
Next black swan could be another major terrorist attack on U.S. What would have happened if the Detroit plane bomber was successful? Of course there are a lot of potential land mines in the economy without out a terrorist attack.

AgShaman
8th February 2010, 17:47
Black Swan is the phrase derived from Nassim Taleb's book "Black Swan"

This is the most painful subject to ponder.

To think about it makes one reflect on how much more gutless the people of today's time are compared with the people and forefathers during the American Revolution. What were their "black swans".....Stamp Acts and taxes on tea?

Nowadays credit card companies jack up rates and people just bend over and take it in the 6 'o' clock.

Compare the lists......a new candidate gets added to the list almost daily....and the list grows longer (politicians and leaders are certainly not shortening the list with their inept policies)

Long ago should have come the vote of no confidence regarding the steady erosion of personal liberties coinciding with the constitution's erosion towards irrelevance.

I hate thinking about this gigantic list of Black Swan candidates flying around nowadays. It just riddles me with guilt at our inability to hold our politicians and leaders accountable for their shortcomings. It paints a picture of a people that are exponentially more gutless than the first Americans. Do our leaders really deserve more time to right the ship and do right by the people of this planet.....I say no.....they all deserve pink slips in my book.

South Carolina has recently reached down and "grabbed a set" by trying to set a leadership example with their latest gold and silver bill.....Hopefully the other 49 states could muster some courage in the near term.....waiting around for the list to get shorter is akin to pissing off north of the border to avoid the draft.

Curiosity will not kill the C/Kats of SS Nation!

DaleFromCalgary
10th February 2010, 12:27
"To think about it makes one reflect on how much more gutless the people of today's time are compared with the people and forefathers during the American Revolution."

Canadians are no better alas. We built a transcontinental railroad, homesteaded the prairies, and colonized the Precambrian Shield without pension plans, UIC, free schools, and welfare. Today Calgarians are whining because their street isn't ploughed as soon as the snow starts falling.

My great-grandparents on both sides of the family, all of whom were homesteaders, would be disgusted at how soft we've become. Their pension plans, by the way, were silver coins hidden in the barn. (Canada didn't have circulating gold coins.)