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MasterQ
1st February 2010, 08:39
These are our resistances from Friday 1/29/10.

Overall sentiment is still bearish for the short term (30 days). This could extend into the spring and summer months if Silver doesn't get some legs under it soon.

Since the pattern seems to want to continue to the 200 day and mimic the 30 year charts, it is very hard to see some light at the end of this tunnel.

Unless of course your just stacking away and waiting for a cheap price...you might get it.

The small bump up this morning in the London market may start to show some signs of a week of consolidation at these ridiculously low 16's. I thought we would hold above 16.50 and consolidate there but after that broke I wasn't going to leave my cash in the market. Better to see if it is going to bottom out than lose 100's a day.

Another piece of slightly good news is the 200 day is moving up to 16 slowly. This could give firmer support to not see anything lower as the 16's seem to have been the line in the sand with Silver. In fact when Scotia called 13 as the low for 2010 I was conflicted because it just seemed with all this spending, slow recovery of the economy, and more of a look to safehaven, we wouldn't see anything below 16 for maybe the next 2 years.

I have discussed this privately and may have eluded to it a few posts in here but I think we can all agree that something in the 20's is inevitable this year. For those leveraging thier trades it would just be easier to see a bottom finally so we can rest on long positions.

Good luck to us all!

-Q

ccjoe
1st February 2010, 09:16
These are our resistances from Friday 1/29/10.

Overall sentiment is still bearish for the short term (30 days). This could extend into the spring and summer months if Silver doesn't get some legs under it soon.

Since the pattern seems to want to continue to the 200 day and mimic the 30 year charts, it is very hard to see some light at the end of this tunnel.

Unless of course your just stacking away and waiting for a cheap price...you might get it.

The small bump up this morning in the London market may start to show some signs of a week of consolidation at these ridiculously low 16's. I thought we would hold above 16.50 and consolidate there but after that broke I wasn't going to leave my cash in the market. Better to see if it is going to bottom out than lose 100's a day.

Another piece of slightly good news is the 200 day is moving up to 16 slowly. This could give firmer support to not see anything lower as the 16's seem to have been the line in the sand with Silver. In fact when Scotia called 13 as the low for 2010 I was conflicted because it just seemed with all this spending, slow recovery of the economy, and more of a look to safehaven, we wouldn't see anything below 16 for maybe the next 2 years.

I have discussed this privately and may have eluded to it a few posts in here but I think we can all agree that something in the 20's is inevitable this year. For those leveraging thier trades it would just be easier to see a bottom finally so we can rest on long positions.

Good luck to us all!

-Q
I agree.
I'm looking for 15.99 for a mini contract 1K futures
Anything 15.50 or less is a dream come true to go in full boat.
Silver is mirroring the USD almost as a mirror image so I'm thinking to hit the USD peak> 80-81 and the silver bottom 15-15.50 and that could be the nadir.

maplesilverbug
1st February 2010, 10:05
I predict noon will come around 12 o'clock...so far I've been 100% correct since about the age of 3.

silverheartbone
1st February 2010, 10:22
We are halfway through my first 10 DAY GURU CRYSTAL BALL PREDICTION (http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?p=90216#post90216) and of course everything is right on track. :p

Ball readings of closing spot for this week.

M 16.42
T 16.55
W 16.87
H 16.41
F 16.10

That data looks somewhat parabolic to me. :rolleyes:

slvr
1st February 2010, 11:12
I predict Gold and Silver will go up 1-3% today. So far, since I been following my gut feeling, Ive been right 4 out of 4 times :)
JoJo.. forget today .. what about tomorrow?

Sakata
1st February 2010, 11:16
I predict Gold and Silver will go up 1-3% today. So far, since I been following my gut feeling, Ive been right 4 out of 4 times :)

The problem with being right 4 out of 4 times if that one in sixteen people will be just by chance. Even 100 out of 100 occurs one in a million times.

NotAnOricle
1st February 2010, 11:51
And it is all based on my assessment (gut feeling) of the market psychology that day.

Take it for what it is. I am not trying to please anyone. However, I am trying to prove a point. Gold and Silver market moves, at least for short terms, appears to be heavily driven by buyer/seller psychology.

Gut feelings are an assessment founded on years of experience and knowledge. If one were to compare gut feelings of a beginner nurse to a veteran nurse, one would find the veteran nurse to be more accurate with their gut feelings.

But gut feelings should not be the only assessment, because what you might think is heart burn could really be an abdominal aortic aneurysm. The former gets a pill, while the latter gets a tombstone. This is the reason we backup our assessment with data.

While I respect your gut feelings, keep in mind that you should prepare to throw out some data to support your gut feelings, if you want to be taken seriously.

With that said, I have a gut feeling on the psychology of the market that we will begin to see a rise in silver.
Keep in mind, I am a beginner and you may very well be an expert.

I think I might take a trip to my PM store today, before the big jump.;)

Sakata
1st February 2010, 12:15
Actually, it's 5 out of 5 now. I've made 5 public predictions so far, and everytime, I've predicted the move up or down.

The day is yet young. Let's see where is closes. It would have to close between $16.36 and $16.69 for you to be right. It is currently at $16.48

ccjoe
1st February 2010, 12:22
Ha ha ha .... quite funny. Don't you have anything to contribute except being an asshole jerk.

Are you going to take back you wise alec comments now? Gold and silver is up as I predicted.

As I predicted jojo maplehole is an old frustrated homo and is taking it out on men who don't fulfill his desires.
He should join a gay old man's service and just post helpful things about silver like most of us do.

Sakata
1st February 2010, 12:38
As I predicted jojo maplehole is an old frustrated homo and is taking it out on men who don't fulfill his desires.
He should join a gay old man's service and just post helpful things about silver like most of us do.

What exactly is helpful about such a comment? I find it to be in extremely bad taste.

ccjoe
1st February 2010, 13:36
What exactly is helpful about such a comment? I find it to be in extremely bad taste.

He's been attacking me and everyone for a very long time.
I find it offensive that you attack me and not maplehole.
Unless you're you're gay you should NOT be offended by my comment but his.
Why else would you attack the victim> me unless you had sexual problems of your own?

NotAnOricle
1st February 2010, 14:48
Laugh at me all you want but this is just my observation. I christened this theory as the "Chicken Flock Theory" of short term market movements.

Not laughing at you at all and I think your comments have validity.
Just sharing observations and experiences regarding gut feelings.

And I happen to like the Chicken Flock Theory, somewhat colloquial but is probably right on the money.

We see the same behavior in schools of fish.

AgShaman
1st February 2010, 15:30
I second the motion, I'd like to hear JoJoJaro expound on the Chicken Flock Theory.

As a side note: Could NotAnOricle please refrain from including medical information (I have chronic Heartburn)

Curiosity will not kill the C/Kats of SS Nation!

Jake
1st February 2010, 15:49
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Az2Africa
1st February 2010, 17:09
Thanks for clearing that all up Jake. I was confused for a while there.;)

Jake
1st February 2010, 17:17
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Roonbox
1st February 2010, 17:41
Its like this really - Jake is way too loud and argumentative - love his own points - never listens -and makes too much noise -


and he's a dickhead -

he is essentially the main downfall for this forum -

Im retiring .

JesterJay
1st February 2010, 18:31
Dont read him or do the "ignore" magic trick.
I find him amusing, for a kid.
JesterJay



Its like this really - Jake is way too loud and argumentative - love his own points - never listens -and makes too much noise -


and he's a dickhead -

he is essentially the main downfall for this forum -

Im retiring .

JesterJay
1st February 2010, 18:35
Helpful as in disparaging a group of people just for being?
Make fun but please dont be so rude.
Just stick to the helpful things, joe.
Please,
JesterJay



As I predicted jojo maplehole is an old frustrated homo and is taking it out on men who don't fulfill his desires.
He should join a gay old man's service and just post helpful things about silver like most of us do.

JesterJay
1st February 2010, 18:38
Now you're being an a-hole.
You sure do mention gays alot.
Perhaps YOU have the problem and you project it on others.

Other than that I usually like what you post, though don't always agree with you.
The "maplehole" thing was amusing the first time. Not so much anymore.

Stick with the helpful, Please!
JesterJay



He's been attacking me and everyone for a very long time.
I find it offensive that you attack me and not maplehole.
Unless you're you're gay you should NOT be offended by my comment but his.
Why else would you attack the victim> me unless you had sexual problems of your own?

MasterQ
1st February 2010, 19:22
Its like this really - Jake is way too loud and argumentative - love his own points - never listens -and makes too much noise -


and he's a dickhead -

he is essentially the main downfall for this forum -

Im retiring .

Most have him on ignore Roon.

Only the few curious feed his flame but I think out of sick curiosity.

You'll be fine just posting around the namesake.

For those of us here who like what each other says for entertainment or thought this forum serves just about those needs. You'll have to remember how public and easy it is to get in here. There is no screening. See the spammers get in with ease should be enough evidence of the fact.

Those who like to just make forums a battle of ill tempers are hard to resist, I myself have fell victim a few times. I think I got it out of my system.

I much rather carry on a conversation with those who don't mind reading and responding than ranting about credibility on a FREE FORUM. Sheesh...

Good luck brother.

And good luck to us all in these turbulent silver waves.

-Q

Jake
1st February 2010, 20:02
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maplesilverbug
1st February 2010, 20:40
As I predicted jojo maplehole is an old frustrated homo and is taking it out on men who don't fulfill his desires.
He should join a gay old man's service and just post helpful things about silver like most of us do.


He's been attacking me and everyone for a very long time.
I find it offensive that you attack me and not maplehole.
Unless you're you're gay you should NOT be offended by my comment but his.
Why else would you attack the victim> me unless you had sexual problems of your own?

Good of you to come out of your homophobic closet, joey.

When I and my Rainbow Warriors come to your house for one of your infamous long-weekend hot tub parties, remind us to sodomize you first.
And last.

You equate homosexuality with a "sexual problem"?!?

Any racist comments you'd like to throw around while you are at it?

You are more fucked up than previously thought.
It's good you believe in a god because you are one pathetic individual, in great need salvation.

Good luck with staying alive.


[I'm gone, again.
I'll return 11/25/10
to bust another myth.]

maplesilverbug
1st February 2010, 20:51
As I predicted jojo maplehole is an old frustrated homo and is taking it out on men who don't fulfill his desires.
He should join a gay old man's service...

Wow.
I've had a change of ideology.
There should even MORE guns in America.
Chances are some of the right people would get killed.



...just post helpful things about silver like most of us do.

Here are some of the "helpful things about silver" that gay-basher has previously posted:

"My I.Q. is 140 and I'm sure yours is not.

I flunked bio and chemistry in both high school and college.

I got my B.A. in Poly Sci. with a brilliant 2.4 GPA!

College is overrated.

I think 33 by the holidays; 100 in 2010; 300 in 2013 with inflation around 15 % by 2013 and it starts in 2nd quarter 2010 (inflation that is).

Take my advice newbies and mortgage your houses and put silver on your credit cards."


That help everyone out?
Good.

Bye-bye.

p.s. -- one more for good measure: "I'm dead in 40 years guaranteed." Forty-one years too late.

ccjoe
2nd February 2010, 05:34
Good of you to come out of your homophobic closet, joey.

When I and my Rainbow Warriors come to your house for one of your infamous long-weekend hot tub parties, remind us to sodomize you first.
And last.

You equate homosexuality with a "sexual problem"?!?

Any racist comments you'd like to throw around while you are at it?

You are more fucked up than previously thought.
It's good you believe in a god because you are one pathetic individual, in great need salvation.

Good luck with staying alive.


[I'm gone, again.
I'll return 11/25/10
to bust another myth.]

Okay MAPLE, now we have a death threat.
I'm forwarding your post to my lawyer and the administrator to see if we have enough to proceed legally as we tried to last fall.
These newbies here apparently don't know about this stuff you have been doing for almost a year now.
FYI- My brother is gay as were my roomates in college as I've been fighting for gay rights for over 40. I am VERY straight with a wife and 2 young kids.
I simply tried the "gay" thing to shame you jake into better behavior. It did NOT work.
Now let the legal system take it's course as my wife is extremely upset about this death threat.

ccjoe
2nd February 2010, 05:40
I just forwarded post 28 to my lawyer and the administrator.
I think this time, we CAN proceed legally as last fall, there was no death threat.
I hope everyone doesn't bash me like last fall.
I don't give a crap but my wife is upset.
My 14 year old son loves silver but NOW I have to keep him off this web site because fo the threats from maple and the behavior of jake.
Maybe THIS time, people here can stand up and stop this behavior rather than defending maple and jake and making fun of me.

beach miner
2nd February 2010, 05:58
I'm tired of their Filth also. For what it's worth to the Admin, I'd like to see Jake and Maple out of here. If ya don't pull the Weeds, they'll take over the Garden.

Gene Pool
2nd February 2010, 06:23
I thought I had joined a place to discuss the silver market,it appears that isnt the case. Death threats, sexual preferences debated,I cant wait to see the next topic !
I feel welcome already.... Hello everyone :rolleyes:

Gene Daniels
2nd February 2010, 06:58
To be honest, I am pretty sick of all the filthy mouthed stuff too. I would prefer that the admin does its job and block such people, but short of that I guess legal action is OK. I just hate to see it go that route.

MasterQ
2nd February 2010, 07:11
I just forwarded post 28 to my lawyer and the administrator.
I think this time, we CAN proceed legally as last fall, there was no death threat.
I hope everyone doesn't bash me like last fall.
I don't give a crap but my wife is upset.
My 14 year old son loves silver but NOW I have to keep him off this web site because fo the threats from maple and the behavior of jake.
Maybe THIS time, people here can stand up and stop this behavior rather than defending maple and jake and making fun of me.

Joe, no offense man but that is hardly a death threat. I think your taking things completely out of context.

That was worded in the same manner as "how can you live with yourself" or "how can you continue on living thinking such things". I for one don't like the b.s. and certainly the distractions on a thread I started with resistance rungs on our way back up in Silver.

How completely stupid to get you two bickering over words on a screen. I know Maple has had it out with you because of your text in the past but there is no need to keep stirring the embers. It causes such threads as these to die.

/sigh

Perhaps we can try this again when we start making more positive moves in this market and keep the flame wars down.

-Q

MasterQ
2nd February 2010, 07:13
I thought I had joined a place to discuss the silver market,it appears that isnt the case. Death threats, sexual preferences debated,I cant wait to see the next topic !
I feel welcome already.... Hello everyone :rolleyes:

Forums are littered with such distractions. Don't let them overwhelm you and just watch the topics you click.

Sorry your first time out had to witness such crap but there are really a great group of people here with some very intelligent conversations.

Welcome!

-Q

maic
2nd February 2010, 08:13
Putting all the s'īt at aside now for a moment and focusing to current market situation... MasterQ! Throw some of your thoughts!

ccjoe
2nd February 2010, 08:24
Okay let's try again.
I'm still waiting with 40K in my commodities account.
We're finally going to do some put/call sells today to generate some steady income until the time is right for the futures contracts as this is my new career.
I am obviously waiting for the USD to hit it's apogee which WE (broker and me) think will be in the 80-81 range. There was a tremendous buzz on the net last night about that happening late Wed. early Thurs. IF that happens, I think silver will hit it's nadir at 15.50 or so in the next week.
Again, it's important to stay nimble and be malleable in this market so as not to get washed away in emotion which I myself was MOST guilty of.
My broker says to be DISCIPLINED which Master Q has always ememplified.
NOW see if JAKE and/or Maple can NOt BUST OUR CHOPS and instead ADD to the conversation rather than being crazed with their own hate filled agenda.
Let's all watch them carefully so even the newbies will get it.

Sakata
2nd February 2010, 08:32
To be honest, I am pretty sick of all the filthy mouthed stuff too. I would prefer that the admin does its job and block such people, but short of that I guess legal action is OK. I just hate to see it go that route.

Use the ignore feature. I have them both blocked.

Az2Africa
2nd February 2010, 08:32
I just forwarded post 28 to my lawyer and the administrator.
I think this time, we CAN proceed legally as last fall, there was no death threat.
I hope everyone doesn't bash me like last fall.
I don't give a crap but my wife is upset.
My 14 year old son loves silver but NOW I have to keep him off this web site because fo the threats from maple and the behavior of jake.
Maybe THIS time, people here can stand up and stop this behavior rather than defending maple and jake and making fun of me.

I agree that it is grade school bully nonsense. People get pretty brave in front of their computers. They usually turn out to be cowards in person. It should be the job of a proper administrator to end threads that head that direction. If the present one does not have the time then he/she should appoint a couple of mederators. I visit a photography forum and a foul language post will get you banned in about 1 minute.

MasterQ
2nd February 2010, 08:37
Putting all the s'īt at aside now for a moment and focusing to current market situation... MasterQ! Throw some of your thoughts!

I'd like to say I'm encouraged by recent market movement but until we get through some heavy resistances things are going to be still rough around the edges.

As this thread suggests, we need to take out those two numbers on our way up to solidifying us above the 100 day let alone back into the 9/18 day channel I enjoy so much.

The dip with the 9 day was almost straight down and was left sitting around 16.90's yesterday. This makes my original posted numbers still in tact for rungs on this movement up. A few touches if not hits in the 9/18 day channel again will start to show some life back into silver.

This could be compounded by some recent reactions to the Obamanomics budget. Last night on John Stewart, he interviewed an Obamanomics professor and it seems the rouse is on. The idea was that you need to spend in order to curb additional spending by catching up to slow the leak in the economy with jobs, and growth...ok my head was spinning too.

Housing sells themselves have separated the usual trend of coinciding existing and new home sells. Without surges in new home sells that makes the jobs in that sector suffer as well.

There really is just no denying the jobs growth and economic growth will be intertwined and slow to recover.

We are also running low on time in this month. Unless the trend will continue into March, it becomes even riskier with short term trading investments just before the spring/summer months.

Every day and every week is a different story. Let us all try and gauge what we see as best as we can digest.

Good luck to us all!

-Q

Sakata
2nd February 2010, 09:02
I do not have as much faith in technical analysis as most people seem to do. One thing that bothers me is how it can work in a market which is manipulated as much as the silver market. Surely that manipulation just causes it to go straight through any support like a knife through butter.

Can someone give a serious and detailed explanation of why you think it works for silver.

ccjoe
2nd February 2010, 09:27
I do not have as much faith in technical analysis as most people seem to do. One thing that bothers me is how it can work in a market which is manipulated as much as the silver market. Surely that manipulation just causes it to go straight through any support like a knife through butter.

Can someone give a serious and detailed explanation of why you think it works for silver.

Excellent question as I was adamantly against TA until recently.
The way I look at it Sakata is, when LOGIC and FUNDAMENTAL laws of supply and demand fail, TA starts to be the ONLY rational alternative.
It's ONE more weapon in the arsenal to decipher this manipulated market.
Then you throw in the "big meeting" next month that Ted has been trying to get for decades, and try to figure if that will make any difference???

PlataTruth
2nd February 2010, 10:07
Excellent question as I was adamantly against TA until recently.
The way I look at it Sakata is, when LOGIC and FUNDAMENTAL laws of supply and demand fail, TA starts to be the ONLY rational alternative.
It's ONE more weapon in the arsenal to decipher this manipulated market.
Then you throw in the "big meeting" next month that Ted has been trying to get for decades, and try to figure if that will make any difference???

First off logic and certainly not the fundamental laws of supply & demand have failed. TA is not a rational alternative, the market IS manipulated that is logic. TA is simply educated gambling in a changing system. Many gamble I have no problem with that, I personally dont like losing what I work so hard for. Just be very aware that you might win this time and maybe even the next time, but the more you play you will eventually lose. Traders know this and accept it, it is part of the business. How well did you sleep when you lost with real estate. Dont risk more than you can afford to lose and always bank or reinvest what what you make dont gamble with profits. You have a wife and 2 small kids, think long term. New investors to the futures markets usually take a beating, trust me been there more than once, your broker might be great but this is what he does for a living remember that. When things go bad all the little guys are left holding the empty bag and we all see lots of bad things coming in the near future.

ccjoe
2nd February 2010, 11:12
First off logic and certainly not the fundamental laws of supply & demand have failed. TA is not a rational alternative, the market IS manipulated that is logic. TA is simply educated gambling in a changing system. Many gamble I have no problem with that, I personally dont like losing what I work so hard for. Just be very aware that you might win this time and maybe even the next time, but the more you play you will eventually lose. Traders know this and accept it, it is part of the business. How well did you sleep when you lost with real estate. Dont risk more than you can afford to lose and always bank or reinvest what what you make dont gamble with profits. You have a wife and 2 small kids, think long term. New investors to the futures markets usually take a beating, trust me been there more than once, your broker might be great but this is what he does for a living remember that. When things go bad all the little guys are left holding the empty bag and we all see lots of bad things coming in the near future.
Thanks Plata and I agree.
I WILL keep my 5636 0zs of .999.
I feel like as long as I keep that and a few other assets, I can afford to "gamble" in the options> at first (safer) and then the futures.
I am playing with house money as it is the profits from my silver and gold.

MasterQ
2nd February 2010, 11:26
I do not have as much faith in technical analysis as most people seem to do. One thing that bothers me is how it can work in a market which is manipulated as much as the silver market. Surely that manipulation just causes it to go straight through any support like a knife through butter.

Can someone give a serious and detailed explanation of why you think it works for silver.

TA
Oil
Gold
Dollar
Inflation
Unemployment
Deficits
GDP
Foreign Interests
Supply/Demand (this is a hard one as with paper trading has made this the most misrepresented tool)

These have all in one way or another and in some instances combination of, have effected the prices of Silver.

So no I do not sleep with TA but I do appreciate its inclusion in many formulas for understanding.

-Q

MasterQ
3rd February 2010, 18:34
Today is a great example of how difficult this is going to be with these built up resistances in place.

Futures market recorded a 16.95 but quickly retreated after oil inventories came out and more specifically with the jump in the dollar.

Gold seems to be stabilizing in neutral territory for now but with the embedded sto's on Silver it still looks to be shaky for the rest of this week at least.

It looks like the 30 day lagging movements from last year are back in effect this year. If this becomes the case we may get some extra profit time into mid-March.

If we don't get our significant breaks to the upside this may just dwindle until the last half of the year.

Good luck to us all!

-Q

Jake
3rd February 2010, 20:50
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